Chemical Society Reviews, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Jan. 1, 2024
A major driver of global climate change is the rising concentration atmospheric CO
Language: Английский
Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 5301 - 5369
Published: Nov. 30, 2023
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).
Language: Английский
Citations
631
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(4), P. 253 - 254
Published: April 4, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
142
Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(6), P. 2625 - 2658
Published: June 4, 2024
Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence global system. However, successive IPCC reports published at intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used in Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open-data, open-science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show that, 2014–2023 decade average, observed was 1.19 [1.06 1.30] °C, which [1.0 1.4] °C human-induced. For single-year human-induced reached 1.31 [1.1 1.7] 2023 relative 1850–1900. best estimate below 2023-observed record 1.43 [1.32 1.53] indicating a substantial contribution internal variability record. Human-induced has been increasing rate that unprecedented instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] per over 2014–2023. This high caused combination net being persistent 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increase CO2 slowed compared 2000s, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change some presented here.
Language: Английский
Citations
86
Nature, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 631(8019), P. 94 - 97
Published: May 14, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
66
Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 434, P. 140414 - 140414
Published: Dec. 28, 2023
The green energy transition is aimed at mitigating the impact of climate change. Yet, current emphasis on 'green' narrowly centred around decarbonisation, or CO2 reduction, often side-lining roles other gases, such as sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and PCF-14 (CF4), which have a respective 24,300- 7380-times higher global warming potential than time horizon century. In addition, any complex affair that simultaneously impacts environmental, economic social systems, with significant system-level interactions. For example, material requirement for renewable known to be substantial, factor 15 times greater natural gas-based offshore wind generation, almost 7 solar. resulting increased competition materials reducing appetite collaboration. capacity deploy technology participate in change mitigation geographically variable no single solution universally viable. This study examines an expanded definition proposes beyond-decarbonisation approach more comprehensive globally inclusive, pursuit sustainable transition. diversity our promises advantages heightened collaboration, diminished geopolitical tension, improved access, market opportunities, socio-environmental co-benefits. Strategies pivotal this involve understanding role carbon-based systems transition, amplifying resources, augmenting cross-sector efficiency, implementing effective carbon markets, integrating nature-based well removal technologies. Moreover, it imperative implement all-cost all-benefit monitoring evaluation optimise existing decarbonisation methods systematically. could entail use composite metrics normalise gain against economic, environmental metrics. Addressing societal apprehensions requires focus pragmatic fair outcomes, stability, impacts, developmental objectives, public engagement, recognition enterprises. Policymakers are important fostering synergy by policies encourage international investment, enterprise institution fortification, policy integration.
Language: Английский
Citations
56
PNAS Nexus, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(4)
Published: March 28, 2024
Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth these interwoven emergencies underscores urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, triggering irreversible changes biophysical systems that underpin Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences actions disproportionately borne vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine terrestrial biomes face tipping points, while escalating challenges to food water access foreshadow bleak outlook security. Against this backdrop Earth at risk, call response centered on decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, implementing regenerative practices natural resource management. We elimination detrimental subsidies, promotion equitable development, transformative financial support lower income nations. A paradigm shift must occur replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism economic model prioritizes sustainability, resilience, justice. advocate cultural elevates kinship nature communal well-being, underpinned recognition finite resources interconnectedness its inhabitants. imperative is clear: navigate away from precipice, collectively harness political will, resources, societal values steer toward future where progress does not come cost integrity social equity.
Language: Английский
Citations
40
Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(9), P. 916 - 928
Published: Aug. 23, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
37
Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(8), P. 3601 - 3685
Published: Aug. 13, 2024
Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these climate land use forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–2024 season, 3.9×106 km2 burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global C record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) reduced low African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking extent Canada, largest recorded wildfire European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawaii (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece, a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels probability fires, whereas area anomalies weaker regions lower fuel loads higher direct suppression, particularly Canada. Fire prediction showed mild anomalous signal 1 2 months advance, Greece had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution indicated modelled up 40 %, 18 50 due during respectively. Meanwhile, seasons magnitudes has significantly anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude 2023 are projected occur 6.3–10.8 more frequently medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society's resilience promote advances preparedness, mitigation, adaptation. New datasets presented this work available https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley 2024a).
Language: Английский
Citations
35
Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(6), P. 644 - 651
Published: May 3, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
30
Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 386(6719)
Published: Oct. 17, 2024
Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that difficult to untangle. We use machine learning systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivities climatic, human, and vegetation controls. This delineation revealed rapidly increasing emissions extratropical linked climate change, offset declining tropical pyromes during 2001 2023. Annual tripled one pyrome due weather, compounded increased cover productivity. contributed a 60% increase carbon from globally. Our results highlight the vulnerability of forests their stocks disturbance under change.
Language: Английский
Citations
26