Earth system science data,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
15(12), P. 5301 - 5369
Published: Nov. 30, 2023
Abstract.
Accurate
assessment
of
anthropogenic
carbon
dioxide
(CO2)
emissions
and
their
redistribution
among
the
atmosphere,
ocean,
terrestrial
biosphere
in
a
changing
climate
is
critical
to
better
understand
global
cycle,
support
development
policies,
project
future
change.
Here
we
describe
synthesize
data
sets
methodology
quantify
five
major
components
budget
uncertainties.
Fossil
CO2
(EFOS)
are
based
on
energy
statistics
cement
production
data,
while
from
land-use
change
(ELUC),
mainly
deforestation,
bookkeeping
models.
Atmospheric
concentration
measured
directly,
its
growth
rate
(GATM)
computed
annual
changes
concentration.
The
ocean
sink
(SOCEAN)
estimated
with
biogeochemistry
models
observation-based
fCO2
products.
(SLAND)
dynamic
vegetation
Additional
lines
evidence
land
sinks
provided
by
atmospheric
inversions,
oxygen
measurements,
Earth
system
resulting
imbalance
(BIM),
difference
between
total
biosphere,
measure
imperfect
incomplete
understanding
contemporary
cycle.
All
uncertainties
reported
as
±1σ.
For
year
2022,
EFOS
increased
0.9
%
relative
2021,
fossil
at
9.9±0.5
Gt
C
yr−1
(10.2±0.5
when
carbonation
not
included),
ELUC
was
1.2±0.7
yr−1,
for
emission
(including
sink)
11.1±0.8
(40.7±3.2
yr−1).
Also,
GATM
4.6±0.2
(2.18±0.1
ppm
yr−1;
denotes
parts
per
million),
SOCEAN
2.8±0.4
SLAND
3.8±0.8
BIM
−0.1
(i.e.
sources
marginally
too
low
or
high).
averaged
over
2022
reached
417.1±0.1
ppm.
Preliminary
2023
suggest
an
increase
+1.1
(0.0
2.1
%)
globally
reaching
419.3
ppm,
51
above
pre-industrial
level
(around
278
1750).
Overall,
mean
trend
consistently
period
1959–2022,
near-zero
overall
imbalance,
although
discrepancies
up
around
1
persist
representation
semi-decadal
variability
fluxes.
Comparison
estimates
multiple
approaches
observations
shows
following:
(1)
persistent
large
uncertainty
estimate
emissions,
(2)
agreement
different
methods
magnitude
flux
northern
extra-tropics,
(3)
discrepancy
strength
last
decade.
This
living-data
update
documents
applied
this
most
recent
well
evolving
community
presented
work
available
https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023
(Friedlingstein
et
al.,
2023).
Earth system science data,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
16(6), P. 2625 - 2658
Published: June 4, 2024
Abstract.
Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change
(IPCC)
assessments
are
the
trusted
source
of
scientific
evidence
for
climate
negotiations
taking
place
under
United
Nations
Framework
Convention
(UNFCCC).
Evidence-based
decision-making
needs
to
be
informed
by
up-to-date
and
timely
information
key
indicators
state
system
human
influence
global
system.
However,
successive
IPCC
reports
published
at
intervals
5–10
years,
creating
potential
an
gap
between
report
cycles.
We
follow
methods
as
close
possible
those
used
in
Sixth
Assessment
Report
(AR6)
Working
Group
One
(WGI)
report.
compile
monitoring
datasets
produce
estimates
related
forcing
system:
emissions
greenhouse
gases
short-lived
forcers,
gas
concentrations,
radiative
forcing,
Earth's
energy
imbalance,
surface
temperature
changes,
warming
attributed
activities,
remaining
carbon
budget,
extremes.
The
purpose
this
effort,
grounded
open-data,
open-science
approach,
is
make
annually
updated
reliable
available
public
domain
(https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387,
Smith
et
al.,
2024a).
As
they
traceable
methods,
can
all
parties
involved
UNFCCC
help
convey
wider
understanding
latest
knowledge
its
direction
travel.
show
that,
2014–2023
decade
average,
observed
was
1.19
[1.06
1.30]
°C,
which
[1.0
1.4]
°C
human-induced.
For
single-year
human-induced
reached
1.31
[1.1
1.7]
2023
relative
1850–1900.
best
estimate
below
2023-observed
record
1.43
[1.32
1.53]
indicating
a
substantial
contribution
internal
variability
record.
Human-induced
has
been
increasing
rate
that
unprecedented
instrumental
record,
reaching
0.26
[0.2–0.4]
per
over
2014–2023.
This
high
caused
combination
net
being
persistent
53±5.4
Gt
CO2e
yr−1
last
decade,
well
reductions
strength
aerosol
cooling.
Despite
this,
there
increase
CO2
slowed
compared
2000s,
depending
societal
choices,
continued
series
these
annual
updates
critical
2020s
could
track
change
some
presented
here.
Journal of Cleaner Production,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
434, P. 140414 - 140414
Published: Dec. 28, 2023
The
green
energy
transition
is
aimed
at
mitigating
the
impact
of
climate
change.
Yet,
current
emphasis
on
'green'
narrowly
centred
around
decarbonisation,
or
CO2
reduction,
often
side-lining
roles
other
gases,
such
as
sulphur
hexafluoride
(SF6)
and
PCF-14
(CF4),
which
have
a
respective
24,300-
7380-times
higher
global
warming
potential
than
time
horizon
century.
In
addition,
any
complex
affair
that
simultaneously
impacts
environmental,
economic
social
systems,
with
significant
system-level
interactions.
For
example,
material
requirement
for
renewable
known
to
be
substantial,
factor
15
times
greater
natural
gas-based
offshore
wind
generation,
almost
7
solar.
resulting
increased
competition
materials
reducing
appetite
collaboration.
capacity
deploy
technology
participate
in
change
mitigation
geographically
variable
no
single
solution
universally
viable.
This
study
examines
an
expanded
definition
proposes
beyond-decarbonisation
approach
more
comprehensive
globally
inclusive,
pursuit
sustainable
transition.
diversity
our
promises
advantages
heightened
collaboration,
diminished
geopolitical
tension,
improved
access,
market
opportunities,
socio-environmental
co-benefits.
Strategies
pivotal
this
involve
understanding
role
carbon-based
systems
transition,
amplifying
resources,
augmenting
cross-sector
efficiency,
implementing
effective
carbon
markets,
integrating
nature-based
well
removal
technologies.
Moreover,
it
imperative
implement
all-cost
all-benefit
monitoring
evaluation
optimise
existing
decarbonisation
methods
systematically.
could
entail
use
composite
metrics
normalise
gain
against
economic,
environmental
metrics.
Addressing
societal
apprehensions
requires
focus
pragmatic
fair
outcomes,
stability,
impacts,
developmental
objectives,
public
engagement,
recognition
enterprises.
Policymakers
are
important
fostering
synergy
by
policies
encourage
international
investment,
enterprise
institution
fortification,
policy
integration.
PNAS Nexus,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
3(4)
Published: March 28, 2024
Human
development
has
ushered
in
an
era
of
converging
crises:
climate
change,
ecological
destruction,
disease,
pollution,
and
socioeconomic
inequality.
This
review
synthesizes
the
breadth
these
interwoven
emergencies
underscores
urgent
need
for
comprehensive,
integrated
action.
Propelled
by
imperialism,
extractive
capitalism,
a
surging
population,
we
are
speeding
past
Earth's
material
limits,
destroying
critical
ecosystems,
triggering
irreversible
changes
biophysical
systems
that
underpin
Holocene
climatic
stability
which
fostered
human
civilization.
The
consequences
actions
disproportionately
borne
vulnerable
populations,
further
entrenching
global
inequities.
Marine
terrestrial
biomes
face
tipping
points,
while
escalating
challenges
to
food
water
access
foreshadow
bleak
outlook
security.
Against
this
backdrop
Earth
at
risk,
call
response
centered
on
decarbonization,
fostering
reciprocity
with
nature,
implementing
regenerative
practices
natural
resource
management.
We
elimination
detrimental
subsidies,
promotion
equitable
development,
transformative
financial
support
lower
income
nations.
A
paradigm
shift
must
occur
replaces
exploitative,
wealth-oriented
capitalism
economic
model
prioritizes
sustainability,
resilience,
justice.
advocate
cultural
elevates
kinship
nature
communal
well-being,
underpinned
recognition
finite
resources
interconnectedness
its
inhabitants.
imperative
is
clear:
navigate
away
from
precipice,
collectively
harness
political
will,
resources,
societal
values
steer
toward
future
where
progress
does
not
come
cost
integrity
social
equity.
Earth system science data,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
16(8), P. 3601 - 3685
Published: Aug. 13, 2024
Abstract.
Climate
change
contributes
to
the
increased
frequency
and
intensity
of
wildfires
globally,
with
significant
impacts
on
society
environment.
However,
our
understanding
global
distribution
extreme
fires
remains
skewed,
primarily
influenced
by
media
coverage
regionalised
research
efforts.
This
inaugural
State
Wildfires
report
systematically
analyses
fire
activity
worldwide,
identifying
events
from
March
2023–February
2024
season.
We
assess
causes,
predictability,
attribution
these
climate
land
use
forecast
future
risks
under
different
scenarios.
During
2023–2024
season,
3.9×106
km2
burned
slightly
below
average
previous
seasons,
but
carbon
(C)
emissions
were
16
%
above
average,
totalling
2.4
Pg
C.
Global
C
record
in
Canadian
boreal
forests
(over
9
times
average)
reduced
low
African
savannahs.
Notable
included
record-breaking
extent
Canada,
largest
recorded
wildfire
European
Union
(Greece),
drought-driven
western
Amazonia
northern
parts
South
America,
deadly
Hawaii
(100
deaths)
Chile
(131
deaths).
Over
232
000
people
evacuated
Canada
alone,
highlighting
severity
human
impact.
Our
revealed
that
multiple
drivers
needed
cause
areas
activity.
In
Greece,
a
combination
high
weather
an
abundance
dry
fuels
probability
fires,
whereas
area
anomalies
weaker
regions
lower
fuel
loads
higher
direct
suppression,
particularly
Canada.
Fire
prediction
showed
mild
anomalous
signal
1
2
months
advance,
Greece
had
shorter
predictability
horizons.
Attribution
indicated
modelled
up
40
%,
18
50
due
during
respectively.
Meanwhile,
seasons
magnitudes
has
significantly
anthropogenic
change,
2.9–3.6-fold
increase
likelihood
20.0–28.5-fold
Amazonia.
By
end
century,
similar
magnitude
2023
are
projected
occur
6.3–10.8
more
frequently
medium–high
emission
scenario
(SSP370).
represents
first
annual
effort
catalogue
events,
explain
their
occurrence,
predict
risks.
consolidating
state-of-the-art
science
delivering
key
insights
relevant
policymakers,
disaster
management
services,
firefighting
agencies,
managers,
we
aim
enhance
society's
resilience
promote
advances
preparedness,
mitigation,
adaptation.
New
datasets
presented
this
work
available
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539
(Jones
et
al.,
2024)
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742
(Kelley
2024a).
Science,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
386(6719)
Published: Oct. 17, 2024
Climate
change
increases
fire-favorable
weather
in
forests,
but
fire
trends
are
also
affected
by
multiple
other
controlling
factors
that
difficult
to
untangle.
We
use
machine
learning
systematically
group
forest
ecoregions
into
12
global
pyromes,
with
each
showing
distinct
sensitivities
climatic,
human,
and
vegetation
controls.
This
delineation
revealed
rapidly
increasing
emissions
extratropical
linked
climate
change,
offset
declining
tropical
pyromes
during
2001
2023.
Annual
tripled
one
pyrome
due
weather,
compounded
increased
cover
productivity.
contributed
a
60%
increase
carbon
from
globally.
Our
results
highlight
the
vulnerability
of
forests
their
stocks
disturbance
under
change.
