Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 9(11)

Published: Oct. 25, 2021

Abstract Compound weather and climate events are combinations of drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods model outputs. Recently, aid development research on events, four event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned , (b) multivariate (c) temporally compounding (d) spatially events. However, guidelines how study these still lacking. Here, we consider case studies, each associated with specific type question, illustrate key elements (e.g., analytical tools relevant physical effects) can be identified. These studies show impacts crops from hot dry summers exacerbated by preconditioning effects bright springs. Assessing coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) considering dynamics non‐stationary process. For instance, future mean sea‐level rise will lead emergence concurrent fluvial extremes, enhancing In Portugal, deep‐landslides caused temporal clusters moderate precipitation Finally, crop yield failures France Germany strongly correlated, threatening European food security through effects. analyses allow identifying general recommendations studying Overall, our insights serve as blueprint analysis across disciplines sectors.

Language: Английский

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Extreme rainfall erosivity: Research advances and future perspectives

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 917, P. 170425 - 170425

Published: Jan. 29, 2024

Language: Английский

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Human influence on the 2021 British Columbia floods

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 36, P. 100441 - 100441

Published: April 27, 2022

A strong atmospheric river made landfall in southwestern British Columbia, Canada on November 14th, 2021, bringing two days of intense precipitation to the region. The resulting floods and landslides led loss at least five lives, cut Vancouver off entirely from rest by road rail, this costliest natural disaster province's history. Here we show that when characterised terms storm-averaged water vapour transport, variable typically used characterise intensity rivers, westerly events magnitude are approximately one ten year current climate region, such have been 60% more likely effects human-induced change. Characterised associated two-day precipitation, event is substantially extreme, a fifty hundred event, probability large has increased best estimate 45% streamflow were exacerbated already wet conditions preceding rising temperatures during significant snowmelt, which maxima exceeding estimated several basins Based ensemble simulations with hydrological model integrates multiple climatic drivers, find extreme October December change 120–330%. Together these results demonstrate substantial human influence compound help motivate efforts increase resiliency face frequent kind future.

Language: Английский

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Customized deep learning for precipitation bias correction and downscaling

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 535 - 556

Published: Jan. 25, 2023

Abstract. Systematic biases and coarse resolutions are major limitations of current precipitation datasets. Many deep learning (DL)-based studies have been conducted for bias correction downscaling. However, it is still challenging the approaches to handle complex features hourly precipitation, resulting in incapability reproducing small-scale features, such as extreme events. This study developed a customized DL model by incorporating loss functions, multitask physically relevant covariates correct downscale data. We designed six scenarios systematically evaluate added values weighted learning, atmospheric compared regular statistical approaches. The models were trained tested using Modern-era Retrospective Analysis Research Applications version 2 (MERRA2) reanalysis Stage IV radar observations over northern coastal region Gulf Mexico on an time scale. found that all with functions performed notably better than other conventional quantile mapping-based approach at hourly, daily, monthly scales well extremes. Multitask showed improved performance capturing fine events accounting highly aggregated scales, while improvement not large from functions. show can datasets provide estimates spatial temporal where methods experience challenges.

Language: Английский

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Impact of climate extreme events and their causality on maize yield in South Africa

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Aug. 1, 2023

Abstract Extreme climate events can have a significant negative impact on maize productivity, resulting in food scarcity and socioeconomic losses. Thus, quantifying their effect is needed for developing future adaptation mitigation strategies, especially countries relying as staple crop, such South Africa. While several studies analyzed the of extremes yields Africa, little known quantitative contribution combined extreme to yield variability causality link events. This study uses existing stress indices investigate temporal spatial patterns heatwaves, drought, precipitation during growing season between 1986/87 2015/16 Africa provinces at national level quantifies variability. A causal discovery algorithm was applied relationship among At province levels, heatwaves showed no trend. However, drought severity increased provinces. The modified Combined Stress Index (CSIm) model that nationwide associated with (explaining 25% variability). Heatwaves has influence (35%) Free State. In North West province, (46%) sensitive combination precipitation. analysis suggests occurrence intensified while not detected. presented findings provide deeper insight into sensitivity data serve basis anomalies.

Language: Английский

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Extreme rainfall events in Morocco: Spatial dependence and climate drivers

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 40, P. 100556 - 100556

Published: March 16, 2023

The history of Morocco is replete with tragic natural disasters related to floods that led numerous casualties and significant material losses.An important driver these extreme precipitation.Understanding the spatial characteristics precipitation events critical accurately predicting, assessing, mitigating risks they pose.Yet, physical drivers (EPEs) in remain poorly known.To address this gap, we apply a clustering method divide into regions are spatially consistent terms precipitation.We then determine by analyzing atmospheric circulation anomalies during occurrence some well chosen EPEs each region.Our findings suggest can be subdivided 5 coherent regions.Extreme northwestern associated patterns similar negative phase North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) strong upper-level flow enhanced Greenland blocking and/or Rossby wave breaking (RWB) episodes.By contrast, southern relatively weak upper air troughs but water vapor transport from tropics.

Language: Английский

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Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: May 4, 2024

Abstract Observational and reanalysis datasets reveal a northward shift of the convective regions over northern Africa in summer an eastward winter last four decades, with changes location intensity thermal lows subtropical highs also modulating dust loading cloud cover Middle East North region. A multi-model ensemble from ten models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—sixth phase gives skillful simulations when compared to in-situ measurements generally captures trends ERA-5 data historical period. For most extreme climate change scenario towards end twenty-first century, are projected migrate poleward by 1.5°, consistent expansion Hadley Cells, weakening tropical easterly jet up third strengthening typically 10% except eastern Mediterranean where storm track is polewards. The length seasons remain about same, suggesting warming likely be felt uniformly throughout year.

Language: Английский

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Verification of ERA5 and ERA-Interim precipitation over Africa at intra-annual and interannual timescales

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 280, P. 106427 - 106427

Published: Sept. 6, 2022

Language: Английский

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Where does the link between atmospheric moisture transport and extreme precipitation matter?

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 39, P. 100536 - 100536

Published: Dec. 6, 2022

Atmospheric moisture transport is the primary component of atmospheric branch water cycle, and its anomalies strongly influence drought precipitation extremes. We utilised full geographical temporal spectrum ERA-5 reanalysis data extreme value theory to identify regions where transport, quantified as local integrated vertical (IVT), influences daily precipitation, this has a relevant dynamic component, which may alter dependency between IVT temperatures increase with climate change. showed that weak or negligible in tropical strong but nonuniform extratropical regions. Its much greater areas main mechanisms occur, namely, rivers, low-level jets, cyclones. The IVT, linked wind, highly consequential landfalling cyclones, moisture-transporting jets.

Language: Английский

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Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 23(5), P. 1967 - 1985

Published: May 31, 2023

Abstract. The simultaneous occurrence of extreme events gained more and attention from scientific research in the last couple years. Compared to single events, co-occurring or compound extremes may substantially increase risks. To adequately address such risks, improving our understanding flood Europe is necessary requires reliable estimates their probability together with potential future changes. In this study northern central were studied using a Monte Carlo-based approach that avoids use copulas. Second, we investigate if number observed within expected range 2 standard deviations randomly occurring events. This includes variations several parameters test stability identified patterns. Finally, analyse had common large-scale meteorological driver. results investigation show rivers along west-facing coasts experienced higher amount than by pure chance. these regions, vast majority seem be related cyclonic westerly general weather pattern (Großwetterlage).

Language: Английский

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