Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 41(15), P. 6474 - 6496

Published: May 18, 2021

Abstract This study examines the improvement in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) models against predecessor CMIP5 simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa region. The compares climatology of indices simulated by CMIP with CHIRPS data set using robust statistical techniques for 1981–2005. results display varying performance general circulation (GCMs) simulation annual seasonal domain. CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble (hereafter MME) shows improved local cycle a better representation rainfall within two peaks, especially MAM relative to their predecessor. Moreover, is well captured CMIP5. CMIP6‐MME performed than CMIP5‐MME lesser biases Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), very heavy >20 mm (R20mm) Africa. Remarkably, most are unable simulate extremely wet (R95p). Some (e.g., NorESM2‐MM CNRM‐CM6‐1) depict reproducing observed across all analyses. OND season some (i.e., R95p, PRCPTOT), except SDII, CDD, R20mm models. Consistent other studies, both CMIP5/6 as compared individual due cancellation systematic errors Generally, depicts However, new model generation still marred uncertainty, thereby depicting unsatisfactory calls further investigation into sources persistent methodology identifying features that can accurately patterns future usage.

Language: Английский

---

Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: Dec. 2, 2021

Abstract Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in the future, but changes expected be unevenly distributed across globe. Based on multi-model simulations under three different future emissions shared socioeconomic pathways, we show that a significant drought intensification is dry regions, whereby depends greenhouse gas development pathways. The hotspots located sub-tropical regions where moderate extreme summer today’s climate become new normal by end of 21 st century warmest scenario. On average, scenario, occurrence rate 100% higher than low emission Further, for which currently less affected long-lasting droughts, such as European continent, models indicate probability

Language: Английский

---

Review of Meteorological Drought in Africa: Historical Trends, Impacts, Mitigation Measures, and Prospects

Pure and Applied Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 179(4), P. 1365 - 1386

Published: March 14, 2022

This review study examines the state of meteorological drought over Africa, focusing on historical trends, impacts, mitigation strategies, and future prospects. Relevant drought-related articles were systematically sourced from credible bibliographic databases covering African subregions in twentieth twenty-first centuries (i.e. 1950 to 2021), using suitable keywords. Past studies show evidence occurrence extreme events across continent. The underlying mechanisms are mostly attributed complex interactions dynamical thermodynamical mechanisms. resultant impact is evidenced decline agricultural activities water resources environmental degradation all subregions. Projected changes recovery west/east domain, while south north regions indicate a tendency for increasing characteristics. apparent intricate link between continent's development climate variability, including reoccurrence events, calls paradigm shifts policy direction. Key meant infrastructural technological growth economy being diverted develop coping adapt change effects, which changing. Efficient service delivery drought-prone hotspots, strengthening monitoring, forecasting, early warning, response systems, improved research combined effects anthropogenic systems valuable practitioners, researchers, policymakers regarding management Africa today future.

Language: Английский

---

A review of recent developments on drought characterization, propagation, and influential factors

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 898, P. 165550 - 165550

Published: July 17, 2023

Language: Английский

---

The first high spatial resolution multi-scale daily SPI and SPEI raster dataset for drought monitoring and evaluating over China from 1979 to 2018

Big Earth Data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 7(3), P. 860 - 885

Published: Jan. 3, 2023

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Evapotranspiration (SPEI), traditionally derived at a monthly scale, are widely used drought indices. To overcome temporal-resolution limitations, we have previously developed published well-validated daily SPI/SPEI in situ dataset. Although having high temporal resolution, this dataset presents low spatial resolution due to the scarcity of stations. Therefore, based on China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, which is composed data from more than 1,000 ground-based observation sites multiple remote sensing grid meteorological dataset, present first spatiotemporal-resolution raster datasets over China. It spans 1979 2018, with 0.1° × 0.1°, 1-day, timescales 30-, 90-, 360-days. Results show that distributions event characteristics detected by consistent SPI/SPEI. The correlation between value 12-month scale strongest, linear correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, normalized root mean square error 0.98, 0.15, 0.32, respectively. shown be sensitive flash Our improved shows accuracy credibility, presenting enhanced results when compared total volume up 150 GB, compressed 91 GB Network Common Data Form (NetCDF). can available Figshare (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5823533) ScienceDB (https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.j00076.00103).

Language: Английский

---

Future Changes in Climate and Hydroclimate Extremes in East Africa

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(2)

Published: Jan. 30, 2023

Abstract Climate change is affecting the agriculture, water, and energy sectors in East Africa impact projected to increase future. To allow adaptation mitigation of impacts, we assessed changes climate their impacts on hydrology hydrological extremes Africa. We used outputs from seven CMIP‐6 Global Models (GCMs) 1981–2010 as a reference period. The output GCMs are statistically downscaled using Bias Correction‐Constructed Analogs with Quantile mapping reordering method drive high‐resolution model. Variable Infiltration Capacity vector‐based routing models simulate runoff streamflow across 68,300 river reaches results show an annual precipitation (up 35%) Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya decrease 4.5%) Southern Tanzania 2050s (2041–2070) 2080s (2071–2100). During long rainy season (March–May), be higher 43%) than period Kenya, Uganda but lower −20%) Tanzania. Large parts Tanzania, Ethiopia 38%) during short (October–December). Temperature evapotranspiration will continue Further, seasonal (droughts floods) large region throughout 21st century calling for site‐specific adaptation.

Language: Английский

---

Food insecurity in East Africa: An integrated strategy to address climate change impact and violence conflict

Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15, P. 100978 - 100978

Published: Jan. 12, 2024

The East of Africa is the least developed region, most food insecure and difficult development challenges in world. article review examines seventy-six peer-reviewed articles on climate-linked insecurity economic mostly published 2017–2023. study evaluates to what extent literature provides, explain, illustrate numerous linkages between climate change, development. This includes two sections; first section insecurity, which a result violent conflict brought by effects change; second an integrated approach address related change insecurity. According study, decreased agricultural productivity as factor conflict. Food are mutually reinforcing closely linked. In addition, lessen policies must employ adaptive strategies. distribution management land, water, other natural resources need be improved order resolve conflicts caused change. For develop successful strategy for addressing conflict-related participation resource-sharing agreements land-use planning needs strengthened. Local resource identification possible hotspots using early warning, risk assessments, scenario analysis were suggested ways due key policy implication that best strategies promote long-term security establish rule law, set high standards regulation, protect property rights, establishing national frameworks resolving climate-related conflicts, settle conflicts.

Language: Английский

---

Distinguishing Trajectories and Drivers of Vegetated Ecosystems in China's Loess Plateau

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(2)

Published: Jan. 31, 2024

Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems can exhibit various behaviors in response to climate change and human activities. Nonlinear abrupt shifts are particularly important as they indicate substantial modifications ecosystem structure function, posing a threat the provision of services. Here we distinguish between linear, curvilinear, productivity from 2000 2020 China's Loess Plateau. We utilize spatial Random Forest models analyze driving factors behind these patterns. Our findings that 84.1% experienced positive plant productivity, while small proportion (2.5%) exhibited negative change. Abrupt prevalent both changes with often manifesting (79.3%). Negative shifts, primarily associated activities characterized by increased nighttime light urbanization. Land conversion forest is linked curvilinear trajectory nonlinear acceleration. Higher water availability wetter environment more likely promote productivity. Moderate warming trends contribute high changes. highlight importance accounting for diverse development targeted conservation restoration measures.

Language: Английский

---

Improved non-stationary SPEI and its application in drought monitoring in China

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132706 - 132706

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

---

Understanding the environmental and social risks from the international trade in ornamental plants

BioScience, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 17, 2025

The multibillion dollar ornamental plant trade benefits economies worldwide, but shifting and rapidly expanding globalized supply chains have exacerbated complex environmental, sustainability, biosecurity risks. We review the environmental social risks of this international trade, complementing it with analyses illegal seizures contaminant interception data from Netherlands United Kingdom. show global increases in expansions East Africa South America, highlight impacts including biodiversity loss, aquifer depletion, pollution, undermined access benefit sharing, food security. Despite risk mitigation efforts, showed considerable volumes contaminants shipments, taxonomic identification was not always possible, highlighting uncertainties assessing With high-volume fast-moving transit plants around world, is essential that production standards are improved on specific collected shared to allow for mitigation.

Language: Английский

---