Simulating institutional heterogeneity in sustainability science

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(8)

Published: Feb. 15, 2024

Sustainability outcomes are influenced by the laws and configurations of natural engineered systems as well activities in socio-economic systems. An important subset human activity is creation implementation institutions, formal informal rules shaping a wide range behavior. Understanding these codifying them computational models can provide missing insights into why function way they do (static) pace structure transitions required to improve sustainability (dynamic). Here, we conduct comparative synthesis three modeling approaches— integrated assessment modeling, engineering–economic optimization, agent-based modeling—with underexplored potential represent institutions. We first perform experiments on climate mitigation that specific aspects heterogeneous including policies institutional coordination, attitudes norms. find measurable but uneven aggregate impacts, while more politically meaningful distributional impacts large across various actors. Our results show omitting institutions influence costs miss opportunities leverage forces speed up emissions reduction. These allow us explore capacity each approach insitutions lay out vision for next frontier endogenizing change science models. To bridge gap between theories, empirical evidence social this research agenda calls joint efforts modelers who wish incorporate detail, scientists studying socio-political economic foundations transitions.

Language: Английский

---

Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi‐Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Abstract Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, can trigger a complex web of compound cascading impacts (CCI) due to interdependencies between coupled natural social systems. However, current decision‐making processes typically only consider one impact disaster event at time, ignoring causal chains, feedback loops, conditional dependencies impacts. Analyses capturing these patterns across space time are thus needed inform effective adaptation planning. This perspective paper aims bridge this critical gap by presenting methods for assessing the dynamics multi‐sector CCI hydrological extremes. We discuss existing challenges, good practices, potential ways forward. Rather than pursuing single methodological approach, we advocate pluralism. see complementary or even convergent roles analyses based on quantitative (e.g., data‐mining, systems modeling) qualitative mental models, storylines). The data‐driven knowledge‐driven provided here serve useful starting point understanding both high‐frequency low‐likelihood but high‐impact CCI. With perspective, hope foster research improve development strategies reducing risk

Language: Английский

---

Equity and modeling in sustainability science: Examples and opportunities throughout the process

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(13)

Published: March 18, 2024

Equity is core to sustainability, but current interventions enhance sustainability often fall short in adequately addressing this linkage. Models are important tools for informing action, and their development use present opportunities center equity process outcomes. This Perspective highlights progress integrating into systems modeling science, as well key challenges, tensions, future directions. We a conceptual framework modeling, focused on its distributional, procedural, recognitional dimensions. discuss examples of how modelers engage with these different dimensions throughout the from across range approaches topics, including water resources, energy systems, air quality, conservation. Synthesizing examples, we identify significant advances enhancing procedural by reframing models explore pluralism worldviews knowledge systems; enabling better represent distributional inequity through new computational techniques data sources; investigating dynamics that can drive inequities linking approaches; developing more nuanced metrics assessing also directions, such an increased focus using pathways transform underlying conditions lead move toward desired futures. By looking at diverse fields within argue there valuable mutual learning effectively support sustainable equitable

Language: Английский

---

Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(4), P. 899 - 916

Published: Feb. 27, 2024

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation croplands, which accounts the lion's share human consumption, is critical in understanding these trajectories. Despite irrigation's defining role, LHM frameworks typically impose trajectories land use that underlie demand, neglecting potential dynamic feedbacks form instigation subsequent adaptation to shortages via irrigated crop area changes. We extend an LHM, MOSART-WM, with adaptive farmer agents, applying model continental United States explore emerge from interplay between hydrologic-driven surface availability, reservoir management, adaptation. extended modeling framework conduct a hypothetical computational experiment comparing differences run without incorporation agents. These comparative simulations reveal accounting changes substantially alters modeled outcomes, US-wide annual being reduced by as much 42 % when non-adaptive versions forced US climatology period 1950–2009.

Language: Английский

---

Health and equity implications of individual adaptation to air pollution in a changing climate

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(5)

Published: Jan. 16, 2024

Future climate change can cause more days with poor air quality. This could trigger alerts telling people to stay inside protect themselves, potential consequences for health and equity. Here, we study the in US quality over this century due fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), who they may affect, how respond. We find increase by 1 mo per year eastern United States 2100 quadruple on average. They predominantly affect areas high Black populations leakier homes, exacerbating existing inequalities impacting those less able adapt. Reducing emissions offer significant annual benefits ($5,400 person) mitigating effect of pollution its associated risks early death. Relying adapt, instead, would require them inside, doors windows closed, an extra 142 d year, at average cost $11,000 person. It appears likelier, however, that will achieve minimal protection without policy adaptation rates. Boosting net benefits, even alongside deep emission cuts. New policies could, example: reduce costs; infiltration improve indoor quality; awareness adaptation; provide measures working or living outdoors. emissions, conversely, lowers everyone’s need protects cannot Equitably protecting human from under requires both mitigation adaptation.

Language: Английский

---

Institutional Dynamics Impact the Response of Urban Socio‐Hydrologic Systems to Supply Challenges

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 60(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Abstract Designing urban water systems to respond the accelerating and unpredictable changes of Anthropocene will require not only built infrastructure operating rules, but also governance arrangements responsible for investing in them. Yet, inclusion this political‐economic feedback dynamic models socio‐hydrology has lagged behind operational concerns. We address gap through a dynamical application Coupled Infrastructure Systems (CIS) Framework, which provides conceptual building blocks analyzing social‐ecological various classes flows material information among In model, involves three decisions—infrastructure investment, rate‐setting, short‐term demand curtailment—and each decision is constrained by institutional friction, aggregation transaction costs associated with taking action. apply model cities Phoenix Metropolitan Area compare how friction interacts city's resource portfolio financial position determine its sensitivity, or degree performance (e.g., providing sufficient supply meet demand) given reductions Colorado River availability. find that slowing effect on investment rate‐setting decisions can increase sensitivity supply, it promote objectives compete over‐response rate burden). The dependent initial capacity CIS flexibility within institutions, highlighting need consider together when evaluating systems.

Language: Английский

---

Uncertainty in boundedly rational household adaptation to environmental shocks

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(44)

Published: Oct. 23, 2023

Despite the growing calls to integrate realistic human behavior in sustainability science models, representative rational agent prevails. This is especially problematic for climate change adaptation that relies on actions at various scales: from governments individuals. Empirical evidence individual climate-induced hazards reveals diverse behavioral and social factors affecting economic considerations. Yet, implications of replacing optimizer by nature–society systems models are poorly understood. Using an innovative evolutionary agent-based model we explore different framings regarding household floods, leveraging data a survey Miami, USA. We find significantly overestimates diffusion underestimates damages compared boundedly revealed our survey. “adaptation deficit” exhibited population empirically informed agents explained primarily “soft” constraints—awareness, influences—rather than heterogeneity financial constraints. Besides initial inequality disproportionally impacting low/medium adaptive capacity households post-flood, findings suggest even under nearly complete diffusion, benefits uneven, with late or less-efficient locking path higher damages, further exacerbating inequalities. Our exploratory modeling assumptions shape uncertainty physical factors, like exposure objective effectiveness flood-proofing measures, traditionally considered crucial risk assessments. unique combination methods facilitates assessment cumulative distributional effects essential designing tailored policies, equitable transitions general.

Language: Английский

---

Ripples of change: exploring water security in farming systems—insights from Hamedan province, Iran

Sustainable Water Resources Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 11(2)

Published: March 13, 2025

Language: Английский

---

Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(5), P. 1737 - 1767

Published: March 13, 2025

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation globally, with this likely to grow as demands and surface variability increase. A better understanding the future groundwater sectoral requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation its cost availability. Yet substantial gaps remain our knowledge modeling capabilities related availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, associated extraction costs, which are essential large-scale analyses human–water system scenarios, particularly at global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, physics-based accounting model that operates sub-annual temporal coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution coverage. The produces location-specific supply–cost curves provide levelized access different quantities available groundwater. inputs Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth table, hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts well capital maintenance energy costs required lift surface. employs Theis-based scheme coupled amortization-based formulation simulate quantify pumping. result is spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based curves. We show examples insights can be derived from them across set scenarios designed explore outcomes. produced by most (90 %) nonrenewable storage globally lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half volume remains under 0.108 m−3. unit estimated range minimum 0.004 m−3 maximum 3.971 demonstrate discuss how could used linking Superwell's outputs other models human–environmental challenges, such resources planning management, or broader multisectoral feedbacks.

Language: Английский

---

Resilient water infrastructure partnerships in institutionally complex systems face challenging supply and financial risk tradeoffs

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Aug. 27, 2024

As regions around the world invest billions in new infrastructure to overcome increasing water scarcity, better guidance is needed facilitate cooperative planning and investment institutionally complex interconnected supply systems. This work combines detailed resource system ensemble modeling with multiobjective intelligent search explore partnership design context of ongoing canal rehabilitation groundwater banking California. Here we demonstrate that severe tradeoffs can emerge between conflicting goals related deliveries, size, underlying financial risks associated investments. We show how hydroclimatic variability institutional complexity create significant uncertainty realized benefits heterogeneity partners' threaten viability. partnerships substantially higher a fraction risk compared status quo processes. has important implications globally for efforts use investments enhance climate resilience stability

Language: Английский

---