Land Cover and Spatial Distribution of Surface Water Loss Hotspots in Italy DOI Open Access
Irene Palazzoli,

Gianluca Lelli,

Serena Ceola

et al.

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(18), P. 8021 - 8021

Published: Sept. 13, 2024

Increasing water withdrawals and changes in land cover/use are critically altering surface bodies, often causing a noticeable reduction their area. Such anthropogenic modification of waters needs to be thoroughly examined recognize the dynamics through which humans affect loss water. By leveraging remotely-sensed data employing distance–decay model, we investigate resources that occurred Italy between 1984 2021 explore its association with cover change potential human pressure. In particular, first estimate conversion across locations experiencing loss. Next, identify analytically model influence irrigated built-up areas, heavily rely on waters, spatial distribution losses river basin districts basins Italy. Our results reveal mainly located northern Italy, where they have been primarily replaced by cropland vegetation. As expected, find tend more concentrated proximity both areas yet showing differences occurrence extent. These observed patterns well captured our analytical outlines predominant role Sicily, dominant effects Apennines Sardinia. highlighting following evaluating relative respect pressure, analysis provides key information could support management prevent future conditions scarcity due unsustainable exploitation.

Language: Английский

Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India DOI Creative Commons
Maurice Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel

et al.

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(3), P. 1013 - 1035

Published: March 6, 2025

Abstract. Consecutive droughts, becoming more likely, produce impacts beyond the sum of individual events by altering catchment hydrology and influencing farmers' adaptive responses. We use Geographical, Environmental, Behavioural (GEB) model, a coupled agent-based hydrological expand it with subjective expected utility theory (SEUT) to simulate farmer behavior subsequent interactions. apply GEB analyze responses ∼1.4 million heterogeneous farmers in India's Bhima basin over consecutive droughts compare scenarios without adaptation. In scenarios, can either do nothing, switch crops, or dig wells, based on each action's utility. Our analysis examines how these adaptations affect profits, yields, groundwater levels, considering, e.g., farm size, risk aversion, drought perception. Results indicate that decrease vulnerability impact after one (6 times yield loss reduction) but increase them periods due switching water-intensive crops homogeneous cultivation (+15 % decline income). Moreover, patterns, vulnerability, vary spatiotemporally between individuals. Lastly, ecological social shocks coincide plummet incomes. recommend alternative additional wells mitigate emphasize importance socio-hydrological models (ABMs) for policy testing.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1 DOI Creative Commons
Hassan Niazi, Stephen B. Ferencz, Neal T. Graham

et al.

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(5), P. 1737 - 1767

Published: March 13, 2025

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation globally, with this likely to grow as demands and surface variability increase. A better understanding the future groundwater sectoral requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation its cost availability. Yet substantial gaps remain our knowledge modeling capabilities related availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, associated extraction costs, which are essential large-scale analyses human–water system scenarios, particularly at global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, physics-based accounting model that operates sub-annual temporal coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution coverage. The produces location-specific supply–cost curves provide levelized access different quantities available groundwater. inputs Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth table, hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts well capital maintenance energy costs required lift surface. employs Theis-based scheme coupled amortization-based formulation simulate quantify pumping. result is spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based curves. We show examples insights can be derived from them across set scenarios designed explore outcomes. produced by most (90 %) nonrenewable storage globally lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half volume remains under 0.108 m−3. unit estimated range minimum 0.004 m−3 maximum 3.971 demonstrate discuss how could used linking Superwell's outputs other models human–environmental challenges, such resources planning management, or broader multisectoral feedbacks.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Adaptive Behavior of Over a Million Individual Farmers Under Consecutive Droughts: A Large-Scale Agent-Based Modeling Analysis in the Bhima Basin, India DOI Creative Commons
Maurice Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel

et al.

Published: June 5, 2024

Abstract. Consecutive droughts, becoming more likely, produce impacts beyond the sum of individual events by altering catchment hydrology and influencing farmers' adaptive responses. We use GEB, a coupled agent-based hydrological model, expand it with Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT) to realistically simulate farmer behavior subsequent interactions. apply GEB analyze responses ±1.4 million heterogeneous farmers in India's Bhima basin over consecutive droughts compare scenarios without adaptation. In scenarios, can either do nothing, switch crops, or dig wells, based on each action’s expected utility. Our analysis examines how these adaptations affect profits, yields, groundwater levels, considering, e.g., farm size, risk aversion drought perception. Results indicate that farmers’ decrease vulnerability impact after one (x6 yield loss reduction), but increase due switching water-intensive crops homogeneous cultivation (+15 % income drop). Moreover, patterns, vulnerability, vary spatiotemporally between individuals. Lastly, ecological social shocks coincide plummet incomes. recommend alternative additional wells mitigate emphasize importance socio-hydrological ABMs for policy testing.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Reply on RC1 -- ODD+D Protocol DOI Creative Commons

Maurice Kalthof

Published: Aug. 12, 2024

Abstract. Consecutive droughts, becoming more likely, produce impacts beyond the sum of individual events by altering catchment hydrology and influencing farmers' adaptive responses. We use GEB, a coupled agent-based hydrological model, expand it with Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT) to realistically simulate farmer behavior subsequent interactions. apply GEB analyze responses ±1.4 million heterogeneous farmers in India's Bhima basin over consecutive droughts compare scenarios without adaptation. In scenarios, can either do nothing, switch crops, or dig wells, based on each action’s expected utility. Our analysis examines how these adaptations affect profits, yields, groundwater levels, considering, e.g., farm size, risk aversion drought perception. Results indicate that farmers’ decrease vulnerability impact after one (x6 yield loss reduction), but increase due switching water-intensive crops homogeneous cultivation (+15 % income drop). Moreover, patterns, vulnerability, vary spatiotemporally between individuals. Lastly, ecological social shocks coincide plummet incomes. recommend alternative additional wells mitigate emphasize importance socio-hydrological ABMs for policy testing.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Reply on RC1 DOI Creative Commons

Maurice Kalthof

Published: Aug. 12, 2024

Abstract. Consecutive droughts, becoming more likely, produce impacts beyond the sum of individual events by altering catchment hydrology and influencing farmers' adaptive responses. We use GEB, a coupled agent-based hydrological model, expand it with Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT) to realistically simulate farmer behavior subsequent interactions. apply GEB analyze responses ±1.4 million heterogeneous farmers in India's Bhima basin over consecutive droughts compare scenarios without adaptation. In scenarios, can either do nothing, switch crops, or dig wells, based on each action’s expected utility. Our analysis examines how these adaptations affect profits, yields, groundwater levels, considering, e.g., farm size, risk aversion drought perception. Results indicate that farmers’ decrease vulnerability impact after one (x6 yield loss reduction), but increase due switching water-intensive crops homogeneous cultivation (+15 % income drop). Moreover, patterns, vulnerability, vary spatiotemporally between individuals. Lastly, ecological social shocks coincide plummet incomes. recommend alternative additional wells mitigate emphasize importance socio-hydrological ABMs for policy testing.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Reply on RC2 DOI Creative Commons
Maurice Kalthof

Published: Sept. 2, 2024

Abstract. Consecutive droughts, becoming more likely, produce impacts beyond the sum of individual events by altering catchment hydrology and influencing farmers' adaptive responses. We use GEB, a coupled agent-based hydrological model, expand it with Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT) to realistically simulate farmer behavior subsequent interactions. apply GEB analyze responses ±1.4 million heterogeneous farmers in India's Bhima basin over consecutive droughts compare scenarios without adaptation. In scenarios, can either do nothing, switch crops, or dig wells, based on each action’s expected utility. Our analysis examines how these adaptations affect profits, yields, groundwater levels, considering, e.g., farm size, risk aversion drought perception. Results indicate that farmers’ decrease vulnerability impact after one (x6 yield loss reduction), but increase due switching water-intensive crops homogeneous cultivation (+15 % income drop). Moreover, patterns, vulnerability, vary spatiotemporally between individuals. Lastly, ecological social shocks coincide plummet incomes. recommend alternative additional wells mitigate emphasize importance socio-hydrological ABMs for policy testing.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Land Cover and Spatial Distribution of Surface Water Loss Hotspots in Italy DOI Open Access
Irene Palazzoli,

Gianluca Lelli,

Serena Ceola

et al.

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(18), P. 8021 - 8021

Published: Sept. 13, 2024

Increasing water withdrawals and changes in land cover/use are critically altering surface bodies, often causing a noticeable reduction their area. Such anthropogenic modification of waters needs to be thoroughly examined recognize the dynamics through which humans affect loss water. By leveraging remotely-sensed data employing distance–decay model, we investigate resources that occurred Italy between 1984 2021 explore its association with cover change potential human pressure. In particular, first estimate conversion across locations experiencing loss. Next, identify analytically model influence irrigated built-up areas, heavily rely on waters, spatial distribution losses river basin districts basins Italy. Our results reveal mainly located northern Italy, where they have been primarily replaced by cropland vegetation. As expected, find tend more concentrated proximity both areas yet showing differences occurrence extent. These observed patterns well captured our analytical outlines predominant role Sicily, dominant effects Apennines Sardinia. highlighting following evaluating relative respect pressure, analysis provides key information could support management prevent future conditions scarcity due unsustainable exploitation.

Language: Английский

Citations

0