Global increase in wildfire potential from compound fire weather and drought

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: March 25, 2022

Abstract Wildfire can cause significant adverse impacts to society and the environment. Weather climate play an important role in modulating wildfire activity. We explore joint occurrence of global fire weather meteorological drought using a compound events framework. show that, for much globe, burned area increases when periods heightened with dry antecedent conditions. Regions associated disasters, such as southern Australia western USA, are prone experiencing years weather. Such have increased frequency driven primarily by rather than changes precipitation. El Ni $$\tilde{{{{\rm{n}}}}}$$ ñ o Southern Oscillation is widespread, spatially compounding In Northern Hemisphere, La signature evident, whereas tropics and, lesser degree, Hemisphere. Other modes regional patterns atmospheric circulation also important, depending on region. that lengths seasons eastern North America substantially since 2000, raising likelihood overlapping these regions. These cross-hemispheric may be linked o, although sea-surface temperature magnitudes small. Instead, it likely anthropogenic change primary driver changes.

Language: Английский

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Smoke-weather interaction affects extreme wildfires in diverse coastal regions

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(6631), P. 457 - 461

Published: Feb. 2, 2023

Extreme wildfires threaten human lives, air quality, and ecosystems. Meteorology plays a vital role in wildfire behaviors, the links between climate have been widely studied. However, it is not fully clear how fire-weather feedback affects short-term variability, which undermines our ability to mitigate fire disasters. Here, we show primacy of synoptic-scale driving extreme fires Mediterranean monsoon regimes West Coast United States Southeastern Asia. We found that radiative effects smoke aerosols can modify near-surface wind, dryness, rainfall thus worsen pollution by enhancing emissions weakening dispersion. The intricate interactions among wildfires, smoke, weather form positive loop substantially increases exposure.

Language: Английский

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Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(8), P. 1420 - 1425

Published: June 24, 2024

Language: Английский

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Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX‐AQ)

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 128(2)

Published: Dec. 30, 2022

Abstract The NOAA/NASA Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX‐AQ) experiment was a multi‐agency, inter‐disciplinary research effort to: (a) obtain detailed measurements of trace gas aerosol emissions from wildfires prescribed fires using aircraft, satellites ground‐based instruments, (b) make extensive suborbital remote sensing fire dynamics, (c) assess local, regional, global modeling fires, (d) strengthen connections observables the ground such as fuels fuel consumption satellite products burned area radiative power. From Boise, ID western were studied with NASA DC‐8 two NOAA Twin Otter aircraft. high‐altitude ER‐2 deployed Palmdale, CA observe some these in conjunction overpasses other Further conducted three mobile laboratories sites, 17 different forecast analyses for fire, air quality climate implications. Salina, KS investigated 87 smaller Southeast in‐situ data collection. Sampling by all platforms designed measure gases aerosols multiple transects capture chemical transformation perform observations smoke plumes under day night conditions. linked consumed power orbital collected during overflights sampling fuels.

Language: Английский

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Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: May 21, 2022

Abstract Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex regions with large variability atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moves from surface into atmosphere dynamic drought. Here, VPD used identify short-term Standardized Drought Index (SVDI); characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary non-stationary generalized value (GEV) models, random sampling technique developed quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed projections Weather Research Forecasting model, downscaled three Climate Models based Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century late-century. Results show index (SVDI) accurately identifies timing magnitude droughts, increasing across by end number days above 9 kPa increases 10 along California’s coastline, 30–40 northwest Midwest, 100 Central Valley.

Language: Английский

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Abrupt, climate-induced increase in wildfires in British Columbia since the mid-2000s

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: Sept. 5, 2023

Abstract In the province of British Columbia, Canada, four most severe wildfire seasons last century occurred in past 7 years: 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2023. To investigate trends activity fire-conducive climate, we conducted an analysis mapped perimeters annual climate data for period 1919–2021. Results show that after a century-long decline, fire increased from 2005 onwards, coinciding with sharp reversal wetting trend 20th century. Even as precipitation levels remain high, moisture deficits have due to rapid warming evaporative demand. Bottom-up factors further influence activity, legacy wildfires, insect outbreaks, land-use practices continually regimes. The compound effects climate-induced changes altered fuels now force Columbians confront harsh reality more frequent years intense prolonged activity.

Language: Английский

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Compound climate extremes in China: Trends, causes, and projections

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 286, P. 106675 - 106675

Published: Feb. 20, 2023

Language: Английский

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Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires

PNAS Nexus, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 2(3)

Published: Feb. 1, 2023

Structure loss is an acute, costly impact of the wildfire crisis in western conterminous United States ("West"), motivating need to understand recent trends and causes. We document a 246% rise West-wide structure from wildfires between 1999-2009 2010-2020, driven strongly by events 2017, 2018, 2020. Increased was not due increased area burned alone. Wildfires became significantly more destructive, with 160% higher structure-loss rate (loss/kha burned) over past decade. primarily unplanned human-related ignitions (e.g. backyard burning, power lines, etc.), which accounted for 76% all resulted 10 times structures destroyed per unit compared lightning-ignited fires. Annual well explained ignitions, while decadal state-level abundance flammable vegetation. Both predictors decades likely interacted fuel aridity drive trends. While states are diverse patterns trends, nearly experienced burning and/or rates, particularly California, Washington, Oregon. Our findings highlight how fire regimes-characteristics space time-are fundamentally social-ecological phenomena. By resolving diversity Western regimes, our work informs regionally appropriate mitigation adaptation strategies. With millions high risk, reducing rethinking we build critical preventing future disasters.

Language: Английский

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Tamm review: A meta-analysis of thinning, prescribed fire, and wildfire effects on subsequent wildfire severity in conifer dominated forests of the Western US

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 561, P. 121885 - 121885

Published: April 5, 2024

Increased understanding of how mechanical thinning, prescribed burning, and wildfire affect subsequent severity is urgently needed as people forests face a growing crisis. In response, we reviewed scientific literature for the US West completed meta-analysis that answered three questions: (1) How much do treatments reduce within treated areas? (2) effects vary with treatment type, age, forest type? (3) does fire weather moderate treatments? We found overwhelming evidence thinning pile burning only are effective at reducing severity, resulting in reductions between 62% 72% relative to untreated areas. comparison, was less – underscoring importance treating surface fuels when mitigating management goal. The efficacy these did not among types assessed this study high across range conditions. Prior had more complex impacts on which varied type initial severity. Across types, effectiveness declined over time, mean reduction decreasing than twofold occurred greater 10 years after treatment. Our provides up-to-date information extent active reduces facilitates better outcomes during future events.

Language: Английский

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Growing Threats From Unprecedented Sequential Flood‐Hot Extremes Across China

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 48(18)

Published: Sept. 8, 2021

Abstract When multiple extremes occur in rapid sequence, their impacts cascade to cause disproportionate damages. However, the prevalence of univariate definitions and inability identify low‐likelihood events short observations/simulations leave knowledge on sequential sparse. Leveraging two initial‐condition large ensembles, we project future changes historically unprecedented flood‐hot China. Results show that despite dozens 1 50‐year floods hot more than 2,000 years historical simulations, sequenced occurrence within a week has no precedent. This out‐of‐ordinary configuration is projected be increasingly possible across China, with earlier emergence larger frequency increases expected Southwest Southeast The direction, spatial extent, magnitude cannot explained by internal variability alone, though it potential modulate human‐caused timing magnitude.

Language: Английский

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