Robustness of climate indices relevant for agriculture in Africa deduced from GCMs and RCMs against reanalysis and gridded observations DOI Creative Commons
Daniel Abel, Katrin Ziegler, Imoleayo E. Gbode

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 62(2), P. 1077 - 1106

Published: Sept. 27, 2023

Abstract This study assesses the ability of climate models to represent rainy season (RS) dependent indices relevant for agriculture and crop-specific agricultural in eleven African subregions. For this, we analyze model ensembles build from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) CORDEX-CORE (RCM_hist) their respective driving General Circulation (GCMs) CMIP5 (GCM_hist). Those are compared with gridded reference data including reanalyses at high spatio-temporal resolution (≤ 0.25°, daily) over climatological period 1981–2010. Furthermore, ensemble RCM-evaluation runs forced by ERA-Interim (RCM_eval) is considered. Beside precipitation like sum or number days annually during RS, examine three (crop water need (CWN), irrigation requirement, availability), depending on RS’ onset. The agricultural-relevant as simulated models, CORDEX-CORE, assessed first time several All simulate general characteristics well. However, performance strongly depends subregion. We show that can RS subregions one adequately yet struggle reproducing two RSs. Precipitation based also variable errors among representation CWN affected family (GCM, RCM) forcing ERA-Interim). Nevertheless, too coarse GCMs hinders such specific they not able consider land surface features related processes smaller scale. Additionally, daily scale usage complex variables (e.g., latent heat flux CWN) preconditions RS-onset its spatial representation) add uncertainty index calculation. Mostly, RCMs a higher skill representing value models.

Language: Английский

Co-benefits of carbon neutrality in enhancing and stabilizing solar and wind energy DOI Open Access
Yadong Lei, Zhili Wang,

Deying Wang

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(7), P. 693 - 700

Published: June 5, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

75
Land surface dynamics and meteorological forcings modulate land surface temperature characteristics DOI Creative Commons
Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Akinleye Folorunsho, Kayode I. Ayegbusi

et al.

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 101, P. 105072 - 105072

Published: Nov. 21, 2023

This study examines the effect of land cover, vegetation health, climatic forcings, elevation heat loads, and terrain characteristics (LVCET) on surface temperature (LST) distribution in West Africa (WA). We employ fourteen machine-learning models, which preserve nonlinear relationships, to downscale LST other predictands while preserving geographical variability WA. Our results showed that random forest model performs best downscaling predictands. is important for sub-region since it has limited access mainframes power multiplex algorithms. In contrast northern regions, southern regions consistently exhibit healthy vegetation. Also, areas with unhealthy coincide hot clusters. The positive Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trends Sahel underscore rainfall recovery subsequent Sahelian greening. southwesterly winds cause upwelling cold waters, lowering WA highlighting cooling influence water bodies LST. Identifying elevated paramount prioritizing greening initiatives, our underscores importance considering LVCET factors urban planning. Topographic slope-facing angles, diurnal anisotropic all contribute variations LST, emphasizing need a holistic approach when designing resilient sustainable landscapes.

Language: Английский

Citations

32
Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather DOI Creative Commons
Andrew D. Jones, Deeksha Rastogi, Pouya Vahmani

et al.

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Sept. 28, 2023

Regional climate models can be used to examine how past weather events might unfold under different conditions by simulating analogue versions of those with modified thermodynamic (i.e., warming signals). Here, we apply this approach dynamically downscaling a 40-year sequence from 1980-2019 driven atmospheric re-analysis, and then repeating total 8 times using range time-evolving signals that follow 4 80-year future trajectories 2020-2099. Warming two emission scenarios (SSP585 SSP245) are derived groups global based on whether they exhibit relatively high or low sensitivity. The resulting dataset, which contains 25 hourly over 200 3-hourly variables at 12 km spatial resolution, plausible in direct reference previously observed enables systematic exploration the ways change influences characteristics historical extreme events.

Language: Английский

Citations

29
Multivariate Drought Monitoring, Propagation, and Projection Using Bias‐Corrected General Circulation Models DOI Creative Commons
Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Wen Zhou, Patrick Laux

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(4)

Published: April 1, 2023

Abstract Understanding how droughts are characterized, propagated, and projected, particularly multivariate droughts, is necessary to explain the variability changes in drought characteristics. This study aims understand multimodel global monitoring, propagation, projection by utilizing a standardized index (MSDI) during historical (1959–2014) future (2045–2100) periods under two socioeconomic pathways SSPs (370 585), derived from bias‐corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Based on energy metrics, bias correction method outperformed other techniques correcting biases CMIP6 representation. The indicators demonstrate distinct categories for meteorological, hydrological, droughts. There were significant high cross correlations between Heatwave Total Length (HWTL) MSDI Africa South America all lagged times. Europe North generally saw maximum duration (228 months) period. For projections, recorded (197 months), while witnessed minimum SSP 370 (171 (149 585. Furthermore, period tropical Africa, propagation of meteorological hydrological was slower wet months than dry months. Under projection, there shift long meteorological‐hydrological middle late beginning Africa. Therefore, tracking projecting characteristics vital understanding risk drought‐related consequences.

Language: Английский

Citations

28
Projection of drought-flood abrupt alternation in a humid subtropical region under changing climate DOI
Rong Wang, Xianghu Li, Qi Zhang

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 624, P. 129875 - 129875

Published: June 28, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

26
Minimizing uncertainties in climate projections and water budget reveals the vulnerability of freshwater to climate change DOI Creative Commons
Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Wen Zhou, Christopher E. Ndehedehe

et al.

One Earth, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 72 - 87

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Global water scarcity threatens agriculture, food security, and human sustainability. Hence, understanding changes in terrestrial storage (WS) is crucial. By utilizing climate models, reanalysis, satellite data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of multivariate bias correction technique facilitating precise WS representation while ensuring robust budget closure. Historical data indicate seasonal changes, where forested basins exhibit a surplus December-January-February season, with reversal June-July-August-September season. Non-forested display varied patterns influenced by geographical location land use type. Future projections increased deficits most Southern Hemisphere under middle-road (SSP 245) scenario wetter conditions regional rivalry 370) scenario. Weather systems governing vary season basin, resulting inconsistent moisture intake into basins. These findings underscore intricate interplay between transport, characteristics, WS, highlighting need to understand these complex interactions for effective resource management strategies changing climates.

Language: Английский

Citations

16
Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models DOI Creative Commons
Vishal Bobde, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, Akinleye Folorunsho

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(7), P. 074009 - 074009

Published: June 5, 2024

Abstract Precipitation plays a crucial role in Africa’s agriculture, water resources, and economic stability, assessing its potential changes under future warming is important. In this study, we demonstrate that the latest generation of coupled climate models (CMIP6) robustly project substantial wetting over western, central, eastern Africa. contrast, southern Africa Madagascar tend toward drying. Under shared socioeconomic pathways (defined by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5), our results suggest most parts Africa, except for Madagascar, will experience very wet years five times more often 2050–2100, according to multi-model median. Conversely, dry twice as end 21st century. Furthermore, find increasing risk extreme annual rainfall accompanied shift days with heavier rainfall. Our findings provide important insights into inter-hemispheric precipitation characteristics underscore need serious mitigation adaptation strategies.

Language: Английский

Citations

10
Assessing the impact of bias correction approaches on climate extremes and the climate change signal DOI Creative Commons
Hong Zhang, Sarah Chapman, Ralph Trancoso

et al.

Meteorological Applications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 31(3)

Published: May 1, 2024

Abstract We assess the impact of three bias correction approaches on present day means and extremes, climate change signal, for six variables (precipitation, minimum maximum temperature, radiation, vapour pressure mean sea level pressure) from dynamically downscaled simulations over Queensland, Australia. Results show that all bias‐correction methods are effective at removing systematic model biases, however results variable season‐dependent. Importantly, our based fully independent cross‐validation, an advantage similar studies. Linear scaling preserves signals while quantile mapping distribution‐based transfer function modify signal patterns change. The Perkins score values above 95th percentile below 5th was used to evaluate how well matches observational data. Bias improved extremes some seasons. rank Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) calculated during validation period. find linear empirical best Queensland climatology. On average, led improvement in KGE 23% annually. However, terms extreme values, statistical perform best, tends worst. Our that, except scaling, signal.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Future climate or land use? Attribution of changes in surface runoff in a typical Sahelian landscape DOI Creative Commons
Roland Yonaba, Lawani Adjadi Mounirou, Tazen Fowé

et al.

Comptes Rendus Géoscience, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 355(S1), P. 411 - 438

Published: Jan. 12, 2023

In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to assess changes in surface runoff between baseline (1995–2014) future (2031–2050) periods Tougou watershed (37km 2 ) Burkina Faso. The study uses a combination of land use maps (for current periods) bias-corrected ensemble 9 CMIP6 climate models, under two warming scenarios. An increase rainfall (13.7% 18.8%) projected, which major contributor (24.2% 34.3%). change narrative (i.e. conversion bare areas croplands) expected decrease runoff, albeit minor comparison effect change. Similar findings are observed for annual maximum runoff. This sheds light on need consider simultaneously framing water management policies. Dans cette étude, le modèle agro-éco-hydrologique SWAT est utilisé pour évaluer les changements dans l’écoulement de entre la période référence 1995–2014 et 2031–2050 sur bassin versant au Cette étude utilise une combinaison cartes d’états (pour actuelle future) un corrigé modèles climatiques issus des simulations CMIP6, sous deux scénarios réchauffement. Une augmentation précipitations (de 13,7 % à 18,8 %) prévue, ce qui principal facteur contribuant l’augmentation écoulements (24,2 34,3 %). Les projetés états (principalement surfaces dégradées en sols cultivés) devrait entraîner diminution surface, toutefois proportions plus faibles comparaison effets du climat futur. Des résultats similaires sont observés lécoulement maximal annuel. met lumière nécessité prendre compte simultanément futur l’élaboration politiques futures gestion l’eau.

Citations

22
Land use and land cover dynamics: Implications for thermal stress and energy demands DOI
Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Wen Zhou, Patrick Laux

et al.

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 179, P. 113274 - 113274

Published: April 12, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

14