Temperature Overshoot Would Have Lasting Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract Models of climate change impacts could be missing significant risks to hydrologic and water infrastructure systems through a shared feature: the idea that temperatures rise monotonically. By contrast, temperature overshoot pathways describe non‐monotonic warming trajectories, in which global first exceed given target before declining target. Risks from are qualitatively different associated with monotonic likely underestimated current research policy. suggest may almost unavoidable if more stringent Paris Agreement limiting 1.5°C over preindustrial levels is met by 2100. While has been relatively widely described literature, on individual system characteristics have not. We failure consider disparities between hydrology resources presents particular due divergent adaptation needs. Processes decadal hysteresis especially vulnerable. These include glacial contributions streamflow; consequences vegetation change; altered groundwater; higher use for fossil fuel combustion carbon dioxide removal; policy depends conditions. argue cannot fully captured integrated assessment models needs specifically evaluated adequately characterize risk system. how modeling tools adapted evaluate consequences, but also recognize decisions must made even without perfect knowledge.

Language: Английский

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Why does snowmelt-driven streamflow response to warming vary? A data-driven review and predictive framework

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(5), P. 053004 - 053004

Published: April 6, 2022

Abstract Climate change is altering the seasonal accumulation and ablation of snow across mid-latitude mountainous regions in Northern Hemisphere with profound implications for water resources available to downstream communities environments. Despite decades empirical model-based research on snowmelt-driven streamflow, our ability predict whether streamflow will increase or decrease a changing climate remains limited by two factors. First, predictions are fundamentally hampered high spatial temporal variability processes that control net Second, we lack consistent testable framework coordinate determine which dominant mechanisms influencing dynamics most least important generation different basins. Our data-driven review marks step towards development such framework. We first conduct systematic literature synthesizes knowledge about how it altered change, highlighting unsettled questions annual volume shaped dynamics. Drawing from literature, then propose comprised three testable, inter-related mechanisms—snow season mass energy exchanges, intensity liquid inputs, synchrony availability. Using data 537 catchments United States, demonstrate utility each mechanism suggest prediction be more challenging multiple interacting mechanisms. This intended inform community improve management as tested refined.

Language: Английский

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James Buttle Review: The Characteristics of Baseflow Resilience Across Diverse Ecohydrological Terrains

Hydrological Processes, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 39(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

ABSTRACT The dynamic storage of aquifers is the portion groundwater that can potentially drain to any given point along a stream create baseflow. Baseflow typically occurs year‐round in perennial streams, though characteristics and stability are often most important instream processes during extended dry periods (without precipitation snowmelt) when runoff quickflows minimised. term ‘baseflow resilience’ defined for this review as tendency baseflow streams maintain consistent volume water quality year while under stress from climate variability extremes, with anthropogenic stressors such withdrawals, land use change, degradation. ‘Baseflow has, part, user‐defined meaning spanning supply variables primary interest. Watershed directly impact resilience produce non‐intuitive feedbacks enhance some attributes simultaneously impairing others. For example, permeable corridor geology creates strong stream‐groundwater hydrologic connectivity, yet fast drainage via preferential high‐permeability flowpaths lead streamflow not being sustained periods. Also, shallow sources generally more immediately vulnerable extreme events, warming, salinization, transpiration, drought, compared deeper groundwater. Yet drought influenced by lag years, contaminant legacies may propagate through deep receiving waters decades centuries. Finally, irrigation withdrawals intercept would have drained application leach contaminants soil zone unnaturally raising tables, return flows sustain groundwater‐dependent habitats semiarid areas. This covers concept context summarises common hydrogeological controls on, multiscale of, storage. Further, we present several quantitative metrics assess range using both broadly available boutique data types, subset which demonstrated Delaware River Basin, USA.

Language: Английский

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The shrinking Great Salt Lake contributes to record high dust-on-snow deposition in the Wasatch Mountains during the 2022 snowmelt season

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(6), P. 064045 - 064045

Published: May 10, 2023

Abstract Seasonal snowmelt from the Wasatch Mountains of northern Utah, USA, is a primary control on water availability for metropolitan Front, surrounding agricultural valleys, and Great Salt Lake (GSL). Prolonged drought, increased evaporation due to warming temperatures, sustained domestic consumption have caused GSL levels reach record low stands in 2021 2022, resulting exposure dry lakebed sediment. When dust emitted deposited adjacent snowpack, snow darkened, accelerated. Regular observations dust-on-snow (DOS) began 2009, 2022 season was notable both having most deposition events highest snowpack concentrations. To understand if high DOS concentrations were linked levels, source regions each event identified through backward trajectory model analysis combined with aerosol measurements field observations. Backward trajectories indicated that exposed contributed 23% total had emissions per surface area. The other potential contributors Desert (45%) Sevier +Tule lakebeds (17%), lower per-area emissions. impact snowmelt, quantified by mass energy balance modeling presence absence darkening dust, over 2 weeks (17 d) earlier. could been more dramatic spring drier, but frequent snowfall buried layers, delaying dust-accelerated later into melt season.

Language: Английский

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Multi‐Year Controls on Groundwater Storage in Seasonally Snow‐Covered Headwater Catchments

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 59(6)

Published: May 31, 2023

Abstract Seasonally snow‐covered catchments in the western United States supply water to growing populations as both annual snowmelt‐driven streamflow and multi‐year groundwater recharge. Although interannual variability is driven largely by precipitation, runoff efficiency (the ratio of precipitation) individual varies 50% or more. Recent work suggests that storage, inferred from winter baseflow, a primary control on efficiency, highlighting need quantify time scales which storage hydro‐climatic drivers storage. Using over century daily stream discharge data 10 seasonally northern Utah, we find temporal an index measured mean January discharge, exhibits 2–5‐ 12–15‐year periodicity, regional precipitation patterns snowmelt dynamics. Specifically, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling using antecedent variables demonstrates baseflow (groundwater storage) was positively related 3–4 years negatively previous year's temperature, 1–4 rate duration. Because strongly these results suggest more frequent longer droughts future climate will reduce surface supplies faster than otherwise expected. More broadly, highlight importance including influence when managing catchments.

Language: Английский

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Establishing fluvial silicon regimes and their stability across the Northern Hemisphere

Limnology and Oceanography Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(3), P. 237 - 246

Published: Jan. 13, 2024

Abstract Fluvial silicon (Si) plays a critical role in controlling primary production, water quality, and carbon sequestration through supporting freshwater marine diatom communities. Geological, biogeochemical, hydrological processes, as well climate land use, dictate the amount of Si exported by streams. Understanding regimes—the seasonal patterns concentrations—can help identify processes driving export. We analyzed concentrations from over 200 stream sites across Northern Hemisphere to establish distinct regimes evaluated how often moved among their period record. observed five diverse sites, with nearly 60% exhibiting multiple regime types time. Our results indicate greater spatial interannual variability seasonality than previously recognized highlight need characterize watershed variables that affect cycling ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Shifting groundwater fluxes in bedrock fractures: Evidence from stream water radon and water isotopes

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 635, P. 131202 - 131202

Published: April 10, 2024

Language: Английский

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Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(16)

Published: Aug. 16, 2024

Abstract Colorado River streamflow has decreased 19% since 2000. Spring (March‐April‐May) weather strongly influences Upper because it controls not only water input but also when snow melts and how much energy is available for evaporation soils are wettest. Since 2000, spring precipitation by 14% on average across 26 unregulated headwater basins, this decrease did fully account the reduced streamflow. In drier springs, increases in from cloud cover, lowered surface albedo earlier disappearance, coincided with potential evapotranspiration (PET) of up to 10%. Combining decreases PET accounted 67% variance post‐2000 deficits. Streamflow deficits were most substantial lower elevation basins (<2,950 m), where snowmelt occurred earliest, declines largest. Refining seasonal forecasts imperative future availability predictions snow‐dominated resource region.

Language: Английский

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Streamflow and Groundwater Response to Stream Restoration Using Beaver Dam Analogues in a Semi‐Arid Perennial Stream

JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(1)

Published: Jan. 20, 2025

ABSTRACT Degradation of stream and riparian environments across the western United States has damaged critical ecosystems, water quality, increased sedimentation reservoirs. Low tech, process‐based restoration methods such as beaver dam analogues (BDAs) have been adopted by practitioners because they restore ecosystem function, improve habitat, reduce downstream sediment delivery at a low cost. However, few studies examined potential impacts on quantity timing streamflow, which is primary concern for stakeholders. We address this gap with 2 years streamflow groundwater observations before after installing series 17 BDAs Fish Creek, first‐order in semi‐arid northern Utah. Within 8 weeks BDA installation, 1 year later, we found no significant change compared control Regional Reference sites. Shallow table elevations within 7 m edge significantly, up to 14 cm, relative reach. Our results suggest that small, local hydrological changes from installation are superimposed much larger‐scale snowmelt alluvial controls suggesting can function without deleterious streamflow. These findings especially relevant stakeholders concerns about flows.

Language: Английский

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Two Decades of Dust Radiative Forcing on Snow Cover Across the Great Salt Lake Basin

Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Abstract Seasonal snowpacks in mountain drainages of the Great Salt Lake Basin (GSLB), western United States, are primary surface water supply to regional agriculture, metropolitan Wasatch Front, and terminal Lake. Spring dust emissions from eastern result a dust‐darkened GSLB snowpack, locally accelerating snowmelt relative dust‐free conditions. Such acceleration has been linked streamflow forecasting errors adjacent Colorado River Basin, but snow darkening impacts within largely uninvestigated. To quantify impact, we analyzed patterns radiative forcing (RF ) over MODIS record (2001–2023) using spatially temporally complete RF fractional snow‐covered area products. For validation, retrievals were cross‐referenced with situ observations. Results showed that was present every year had no significant trend record. Spatially, similar across all three subbasins. Temporally, exhibited high interannual variability (−30 +40 Wm −2 means) declined slightly regions GSLB. Controls may be seasonal meteorology drought conditions, drivers remain uncertain. Further understanding distribution controls during changing climate weather allow us predict more accurately.

Language: Английский

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