Evaluating the performance of WRF in simulating winds and surface meteorology during a Southern California wildfire event

Frontiers in Earth Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: Jan. 19, 2024

The intensity and frequency of wildfires in California (CA) have increased recent years, causing significant damage to human health property. In October 2007, a number small fire events, collectively referred as the Witch Creek Fire or started Southern CA intensified under strong Santa Ana winds. As test current mesoscale modeling capabilities, we use Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model simulate 2007 wildfire event terms meteorological conditions. main objectives present study are investigate impact horizontal grid resolution planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme on simulation conditions associated with Mega fire. We evaluate predictive capability WRF key fire-weather forecast parameters such wind, moisture, temperature. Results this suggest that more accurate predictions temperature wind speed relevant for better prediction spread can be achieved by downscaling regional numerical weather products 1 km resolution. Furthermore, near-surface depends choice parameterization. MYNN parameterization yields compared YSU simulations at result than relative humidity during Fire. summary, PBL finer improves event.

Language: Английский

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Priority research directions for wildfire science: views from a historically fire-prone and an emerging fire-prone country

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 380(1924)

Published: April 1, 2025

Fire regimes are changing across the globe, with new wildfire behaviour phenomena and increasing impacts felt, especially in ecosystems without clear adaptations to wildfire. These trends pose significant challenges scientific community understanding communicating these changes their implications, particularly where we lack underlying evidence inform decision-making. Here, present a perspective on priority directions for science research—through lens of academic government scientists from historically wildfire-prone (USA) emerging (UK) country. Key topic areas outlined during series workshops 2023 were as follows: (A) predicting fire occurrence, impacts; (B) human ecosystem resilience fire; (C) atmospheric climate fire. Participants agreed focused research questions that seen gaps. was identified central connecting theme would allow critical advances be made all areas. findings provide one group perspectives feed into more transdisciplinary outline priorities diversity knowledge bases addressing under regimes. This article is part issue ‘Novel influences: impacts, responses feedbacks’.

Language: Английский

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Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(1), P. 47 - 52

Published: Jan. 11, 2024

Abstract. Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled wind and fire spread processes to understand drivers of this devastating event. The results are good agreement with observations recorded during Extreme winds high variability, a ignition close community, construction characteristics led continued multiple directions. Our suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information guide decision-making emergency response management wildfire events.

Language: Английский

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The Meteorology of the August 2023 Maui Wildfire

Weather and Forecasting, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 39(8), P. 1097 - 1115

Published: May 24, 2024

Abstract On 8 August 2023, a wind-driven wildfire pushed across the city of Lahaina, located in West Maui, Hawaii, resulting at least 100 deaths and an estimated economic loss 4–6 billion dollars. The Lahaina was associated with strong, dry downslope winds gusting to 31–41 m s −1 (60–80 kt; 1 kt ≈ 0.51 ) that initiated fire by damaging power infrastructure. spread rapidly invasive grasses growing abandoned agricultural land upslope from Lahaina. This paper describes synoptic mesoscale meteorology this event, as well its predictability. Stronger-than-normal northeast trade winds, accompanied stable layer near crest level Maui Mountains, resulted high-amplitude mountain-wave response strong windstorm. Mesoscale model predictions were highly accurate regarding location, strength, timing winds. Hurricane Dora, which passed approximately 1300 km south does not appear have had significant impact on occurrence intensity event. preceded wetter-than-normal winter near-normal summer conditions. Significance Statement 2023 one most past century, fatalities. meteorological conditions event demonstrates excellent forecasts made threat foreseeable.

Language: Английский

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Experimental Study of Heat Transfer Through Windows Exposed to a Radiant Panel Heater

Fire Technology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 8, 2025

Abstract Structure hardening is a key strategy to help mitigate building destruction during wildland-urban interface fires. Windows represent an important vulnerability for structure failure by allowing heat transfer interior combustibles, and in cases of mechanical failure, entry point flames and/or embers. The purpose this study characterize through windows with various common construction variables (plain (annealed) versus tempered glass, single- double-pane, low-emissivity coating no coating, air-filled argon-filled pane gap). Small-scale experiments were performed 23 cm exposed radiant panel producing centerpoint incident fluxes 10 $$\hbox {kW/m}^{2}$$ kW/m 2 , 20 30 40 50 . Total flux was measured 5.1 behind the window glass. Times cracking other events recorded. Double-pane designs reduced more than single-pane design (measured 13% 43% 39% 60% flux, respectively). Heat further when present 5 14% flux). differences plain glass not statistically significant. Tempered better double-pane consistently survived longer windows. In some cases, surpassed critical required ignition household combustibles.

Language: Английский

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An offline coupling of fire spread models to simulate the 2021 Marshall Fire

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 34(1)

Published: Jan. 23, 2025

Background Existing fire spread models focus exclusively on wildland or urban simulation. Aims This study aims at an offline coupling of two to enable a continuous simulation wildfire incident transitioning from into wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities, evaluate the effects wind input results and influence building types patterns. Methods The selected are WRF-Fire, behaviour platform, SWUIFT, model for inside WUI. 2021 Marshall Fire serves as case study. A map fire’s timeline location is generated using public information. Three scenarios analysed resolution type predicted damage. Key most accurate obtained high-resolution when incorporating different types. Conclusions provides reliable solution Fire-resistant buildings likely helped limit community during Fire. Implications research first step toward developing capabilities predict wildfires within wildland, WUI environments.

Language: Английский

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Perceptions of and Responses to Wildfire Smoke Among New York State Residents: A Cross-Sectional Study

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 22(2), P. 277 - 277

Published: Feb. 14, 2025

Exposure to wildfire smoke (WFS) is associated with detrimental physical and mental health. Periods of sustained WFS are predicted increase climate change, affecting populations globally. Using a retrospective cross-sectional study, we assessed perceptions responses in cohort New York State (NYS) residents Summer 2023. Data were collected using an online survey from October November Descriptive statistics summarized respondent experiences, while exploratory analyses identified high-risk chi-square t-tests. Our sample consisted 609 primarily healthy, white, well-educated individuals who spent most their time NYS during Of the 99% that reported experiencing WFS, 92% received 91% sought out WFS-related air quality information. While only 25% illness, 87% experienced at least one symptom frequently citing watery eyes (63%), irritated throat (50%), headaches (49%), women reporting symptoms more than men (89.1% vs. 81.6%; p = 0.034). A majority (93%) taking mitigation actions, including avoiding outdoor activities (75%) wearing masks (54%). results highlight widespread impacts wildfires 2023, nearly all respondents periods WFS. Most adverse health despite preventative measures, indicating current protective strategies may be insufficient effective interventions needed.

Language: Английский

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Disproportionately large impacts of wildland-urban interface fire emissions on global air quality and human health

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 11(11)

Published: March 14, 2025

Fires in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are a global issue with growing importance. However, impact of WUI fires on air quality and health is less understood compared to that wildland. We analyze fire impacts at scale using multi-scale atmospheric chemistry model—the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry Aerosols model (MUSICA). have notable key pollutants [e.g., carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ozone (O 3 )]. The emission disproportionately large wildland primarily because closer human settlement. Globally, fraction fire–caused annual premature deaths (APDs) all APDs about three times emissions emissions. developed framework can be applied address critical needs understanding mitigating their impacts.

Language: Английский

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Sensitivity of Simulated Fire‐Generated Circulations to Fuel Characteristics During Large Wildfires

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(6)

Published: March 19, 2024

Abstract Coupled fire‐atmosphere models often struggle to simulate important fire processes like generated flows, deep flaming fronts, extreme updrafts, and stratospheric smoke injection during large wildfires. This study uses the coupled model, WRF‐Fire, examine sensitivities of some these phenomena modeled total fuel load its consumption. Specifically, 2020 Bear Fire 2021 Caldor in California's Sierra Nevada are simulated using three loading scenarios (1X, 4X, 8X LANDFIRE derived surface fuel), while controlling rate spread observations. approach helps isolate consumption needed produce fire‐generated winds plume rise comparable radar observations events. Increasing loads corresponding residence time WRF‐Fire leads plumes excess 10 km, strong vertical velocities 40–45 m s −1 , combustion fronts several kilometers width (in along wind direction). These results indicate that LANDFIRE‐based likely under‐represent loading, having significant implications for simulating landscape‐scale wildfire processes, associated impacts on spread, feedbacks.

Language: Английский

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A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 470 - 470

Published: April 10, 2024

The increasing frequency and duration of severe fire events in Australia further necessitate accurate timely forecasting to mitigate their consequences. This study evaluated the performance two distinct approaches extreme danger at two- three-week lead times for period 2003 2017: official Australian climate simulation dynamical model a statistical based on drivers. We employed linear logistic regression develop model, assessing influence individual drivers using single regression. both models was through case studies three significant Australia: Canberra (2003), Black Saturday (2009), Pinery (2015) fires. results revealed that ACCESS-S2 generally underestimated spatial extent all FBI events, but with accuracy scores ranging from 0.66 0.86 across studies. Conversely, tended overpredict area affected by FBI, high false alarm ratios between 0.44 0.66. However, demonstrated higher probability detection scores, 0.57 0.87 compared 0.03 dynamic model. These findings highlight complementary strengths limitations approaches. Integrating transparent communication uncertainties could potentially improve reduce alarms. can be achieved hybrid forecasting, combined visual inspection comparison forecasts. Hybrid also has potential increase forecast up several months, ultimately aiding decision-making resource allocation management.

Language: Английский

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