Comment on essd-2024-149 DOI Creative Commons
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh

et al.

Published: May 13, 2024

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence global system. However, successive IPCC reports published at intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used in Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open data, science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11064126, Smith et al., 2024a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show that, 2014–2023 decade average, observed was 1.19 [1.06 1.30] °C, which [1.0 1.4] °C human-induced. For single year human-induced reached 1.31 [1.1 1.7] 2023 relative 1850–1900. This below record 1.43 [1.32 1.53] indicating a substantial contribution internal variability record. Human-induced has been increasing rate that unprecedented instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] per over 2014–2023. high caused combination being all-time 54 ± 5.4 GtCO2e last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increase CO2 slowed compared 2000s, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change some presented here.

Language: Английский

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence DOI Creative Commons
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh

et al.

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(6), P. 2625 - 2658

Published: June 4, 2024

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence global system. However, successive IPCC reports published at intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used in Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open-data, open-science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show that, 2014–2023 decade average, observed was 1.19 [1.06 1.30] °C, which [1.0 1.4] °C human-induced. For single-year human-induced reached 1.31 [1.1 1.7] 2023 relative 1850–1900. best estimate below 2023-observed record 1.43 [1.32 1.53] indicating a substantial contribution internal variability record. Human-induced has been increasing rate that unprecedented instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] per over 2014–2023. This high caused combination net being persistent 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increase CO2 slowed compared 2000s, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change some presented here.

Language: Английский

Citations

91
A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit DOI Creative Commons
Emanuele Bevacqua, Carl-Friedrich Schleußner, Jakob Zscheischler

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 10, 2025

Abstract The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. calendar year 2024 was announced first above 1.5 °C relative to levels, but implications for corresponding goal unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, occurs within period with an average warming °C.

Language: Английский

Citations

8
Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024 DOI Creative Commons
Lijing Cheng, John Abraham, Kevin E. Trenberth

et al.

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold DOI Creative Commons
Alex J. Cannon

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 10, 2025

Abstract June 2024 was the twelfth month in a row with global mean surface temperatures at least 1.5 °C above pre-industrial conditions, but it is not clear if this implies failure to meet Paris Agreement goal of limiting long-term warming below threshold. Here we show that climate model simulations, target usually crossed well before such string unusually warm occurs.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
2023 temperatures reflect steady global warming and internal sea surface temperature variability DOI Creative Commons
B. H. Samset, Marianne T. Lund, Jan S. Fuglestvedt

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: Aug. 27, 2024

2023 was the warmest year on record, influenced by multiple warm ocean basins. This has prompted speculation of an acceleration in surface warming, or a stronger than expected influence from loss aerosol induced cooling. Here we use recent Green's function-based method to quantify sea temperature patterns global anomaly, and compare them previous record years. We show that strong deviation warming trends is consistent with previously observed influences, regional forcing. indicates internal variability contributor exceptional evolution, combination steady anthropogenic warming. temperatures fall line historical trends, anomalies typical El Niño, indicating dominance forcing, according analysis for isolating contribution various

Language: Английский

Citations

13
The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation DOI Creative Commons
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian J. Soden, Amy Clement

et al.

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(19), P. 11275 - 11283

Published: Oct. 10, 2024

Abstract. Global-mean surface temperature rapidly increased 0.29 ± 0.04 K from 2022 to 2023. Such a large interannual global warming spike is not unprecedented in the observational record, with previous instance occurring 1976–1977. However, why such spikes occur unknown, and rapid of 2023 has led concerns that it could have been externally driven. Here we show climate models are subject only internal variability can generate spikes, but they an uncommon occurrence (p = 1.6 % 0.1 %). when prolonged La Niña immediately precedes El Niño simulations, as occurred nature 1976–1977 2022–2023, become much more common 10.3 0.4 Furthermore, find nearly all simulated 88.5 0.3 %) associated year. Thus, our results underscore importance Niño–Southern Oscillation driving one 2023, without needing invoke anthropogenic forcing, changes atmospheric concentrations greenhouse gases or aerosols, explanation.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Earth shattered heat records in 2023 and 2024: is global warming speeding up? DOI Creative Commons

Jeff Tollefson

Nature, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 637(8046), P. 523 - 524

Published: Jan. 6, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect DOI Creative Commons
Jianhao Zhang,

Yao‐Sheng Chen,

Edward Gryspeerdt

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Jan. 13, 2025

Abstract Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess potential impacts such emission regulations and detectability deliberate perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning capture cloud natural variability estimate a radiative forcing +0.074 ±0.005 W m −2 related IMO2020 associated with changes shortwave effect over three low-cloud regions where routes prevail. We find low this event, attributed strong albedo cover. Regionally, is higher southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that reductions emissions will accelerate warming proposed as marine brightening need be substantial order overcome detectability.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance DOI Creative Commons
Christopher J. Merchant, Richard P. Allan, Owen Embury

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 20(2), P. 024037 - 024037

Published: Jan. 28, 2025

Abstract Global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) is a fundamental diagnostic of ongoing climate change, yet there incomplete understanding multi-decadal changes in warming rate and year-to-year variability. Exploiting satellite observations since 1985 statistical model incorporating drivers variability we identify an increasing rise GMSST. This accelerating ocean physically linked to upward trend Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). We quantify that GMSST has increased by 0.54 ± 0.07 K for each GJ m –2 accumulated energy, equivalent 0.17 ± 0.02 decade ‒1 (W ‒2 ) . Using the isolate from interannual variability, underlying change rises proportion with accumulation 0.06 –1 during 1985–89 0.27 2019–23. While associated El Niño Southern Oscillation triggered exceptionally high GMSSTs 2023 early 2024, 44% (90% confidence interval: 35%–52%) +0.22 difference between peak 2023/24 event 2015/16 unexplained unless acceleration accounted for. Applying indicative future scenarios EEI based on recent trends, increases are likely be faster than would expected linear extrapolation past four decades. Our results provide observational evidence increase inferred over 40 years will exceeded within next 20 years. Policy makers wider society should aware global decades poor guide come, underscoring urgency deep reductions fossil-fuel burning.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
World Climate Research Programme lighthouse activity: an assessment of major research gaps in solar radiation modification research DOI Creative Commons
Jim Haywood, Oliviér Boucher, Chris Lennard

et al.

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: Feb. 5, 2025

It is increasingly evident that maintaining global warming at levels below those agreed in the legally binding international treaty on climate change. i.e., Paris Agreement, going to be extremely challenging using conventional mitigation techniques. While future scenarios of change frequently include extensive use terrestrial and marine carbon dioxide removal second part 21st century, it unproven these techniques can scaled-up reach scale required significantly reduce concentrations atmospheric significant uncertainties detrimental side-effects exist. These issues have led increasing interest so-called “Solar Radiation Modification” whereby mean temperature Earth reduced by either blocking a small fraction sunlight from reaching or Earth’s albedo reflect proportion incident back out space. Here we systematically identify key research gaps associated with two most prominent Solar Modification techniques, Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB). We provide an assessment other less SRM assert transparency inclusivity essential providing objective impartial findings each every stakeholder equitable way.

Language: Английский

Citations

0