Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached DOI Creative Commons
Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Elizabeth A. Barnes

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(6)

Published: Jan. 30, 2023

Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no used during training, validation, or testing, ANNs accurately timing from maps annual temperature. The central estimate for 1.5 °C threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range 2028 2039 in Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests substantial probability exceeding 2 even Low (SSP1-2.6) scenario. While there limitations approach, results suggest higher likelihood reaching scenario than indicated some assessments—though possibility that could be avoided not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal focus particular geographic regions Our framework provides unique, quantifying signal change constraining uncertainty projections. Given existing evidence accelerating risks natural human systems at °C, provide further high-impact over next three decades.

Language: Английский

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 DOI Creative Commons
Mika Rantanen, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Antti Lipponen

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Abstract In recent decades, the warming in Arctic has been much faster than rest of world, a phenomenon known as amplification. Numerous studies report that is either twice, more or even three times fast globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover region, during last 43 years nearly four globe, higher ratio generally reported literature. We compared observed amplification with simulated state-of-the-art climate models, and found four-fold over 1979–2021 an extremely rare occasion model simulations. The ratios are consistent each other if calculated longer period; however comparison obscured uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate unlikely event, models systematically tend to underestimate

Language: Английский

Citations

1732
The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM): the main progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6 DOI Creative Commons
Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Yongjie Fang

et al.

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 12(4), P. 1573 - 1600

Published: April 24, 2019

Abstract. The main advancements of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) climate system model from phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to 6 (CMIP6) are presented, in terms physical parameterizations and performance. BCC-CSM1.1 BCC-CSM1.1m two models involved CMIP5, whereas BCC-CSM2-MR, BCC-CSM2-HR, BCC-ESM1.0 three configured for CMIP6. Historical simulations 1851 2014 BCC-CSM2-MR 2005 used assessment. evaluation matrices include following: (a) energy budget at top-of-atmosphere; (b) surface air temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation global East Asia regions; (c) sea temperature (SST) tropical Pacific; (d) sea-ice extent thickness Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC); (e) variations different timescales, such as warming trend 20th century, stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), diurnal cycle precipitation. Compared with BCC-CSM1.1m, shows significant improvements many aspects including tropospheric regional scales variability QBO, MJO, interannual SST equatorial Pacific, long-term temperature.

Language: Английский

Citations

743
Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models DOI Creative Commons
Katarzyna Tokarska, Martin B. Stolpe, Sebastian Sippel

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 6(12)

Published: March 18, 2020

Strong future warming in some new climate models is less likely as their recent inconsistent with observed trends.

Language: Английский

Citations

614
Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022 DOI Creative Commons
Joan Ballester, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Raúl Fernando Méndez Turrubiates

et al.

Nature Medicine, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(7), P. 1857 - 1866

Published: July 1, 2023

Abstract Over 70,000 excess deaths occurred in Europe during the summer of 2003. The resulting societal awareness led to design and implementation adaptation strategies protect at-risk populations. We aimed quantify heat-related mortality burden 2022, hottest season on record Europe. analyzed Eurostat database, which includes 45,184,044 counts death from 823 contiguous regions 35 European countries, representing whole population over 543 million people. estimated 61,672 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 37,643–86,807) between 30 May 4 September 2022. Italy (18,010 deaths; 95% CI 13,793–22,225), Spain (11,324; 7,908–14,880) Germany (8,173; 5,374–11,018) had highest numbers, while (295 per million, 226–364), Greece (280, 201–355), (237, 166–312) Portugal (211, 162–255) rates. Relative population, we 56% more women than men, with higher rates men aged 0–64 (+41%) 65–79 (+14%) years, 80+ years (+27%). Our results call for a reevaluation strengthening existing heat surveillance platforms, prevention plans long-term strategies.

Language: Английский

Citations

479
The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño DOI Creative Commons
Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, Wenju Cai

et al.

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 55(4), P. 1079 - 1129

Published: Nov. 14, 2017

Abstract The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major finally materialized after long pause since 1997/1998 extreme Niño. It scientifically exciting since, due to short observational record, our knowledge of an has been based only on 1982/1983 and events. 2015/2016 marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected Considering dramatic impacts Niño, risk potential increase in frequency ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming, it timely evaluate how recent event fits into understanding extremes. Here we provide review ENSO, its nature dynamics, through analysis various observed key variables, outline processes characterize brings useful perspective state these events highlights areas future research. While characteristically distinct from events, still can be considered first 21st century. Its extremity attributed part unusually warm condition 2014 long‐term background warming. In effect, this study provides list physically meaningful indices straightforward compute identifying tracking observations models.

Language: Английский

Citations

451
ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing DOI Creative Commons
Sang‐Wook Yeh, Wenju Cai, Seung‐Ki Min

et al.

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 56(1), P. 185 - 206

Published: Jan. 15, 2018

Abstract El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year‐to‐year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts remote regions of globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear sensitive to SST anomaly patterns amplitudes. In addition, modulated by variability oceanic atmopsheric mean state outside tropics land ice extent. The character as well ocean have changed since 1990s, which might be due either natural or anthropogenic forcing, their combined influences. This has resulted changes terms precipitation various parts globe. teleconnection affected predictability statistics events. short observational record does not allow us clearly distinguish robust not. Climate models suggest that will change because circulation forcing 21st century, independent whether properties future do currently show strong intermodel agreement from region region, highlighting importance identifying factors affect uncertainty model projections.

Language: Английский

Citations

447
Social physics DOI Creative Commons
Marko Jusup, Petter Holme, Kiyoshi Kanazawa

et al.

Physics Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 948, P. 1 - 148

Published: Jan. 11, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

420
Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades DOI Open Access
Heather M. Kharouba, Johan Ehrlén, Andrew Gelman

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 115(20), P. 5211 - 5216

Published: April 16, 2018

Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts the phenologies of interacting species may lead their synchrony, with cascading community ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017)

Language: Английский

Citations

375
Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era DOI
Raphael Neukom, Luis A. Barboza, Michael P. Erb

et al.

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 12(8), P. 643 - 649

Published: July 24, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

368
Phase change material-integrated latent heat storage systems for sustainable energy solutions DOI
Waseem Aftab, Ali Usman, Jinming Shi

et al.

Energy & Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 14(8), P. 4268 - 4291

Published: Jan. 1, 2021

This review highlights the broad and critical role of latent heat storage in sustainable energy systems including solar-thermal storage, electro-thermal waste thermal regulations.

Language: Английский

Citations

352