Global heat stress on health, wildfires, and agricultural crops under different levels of climate warming DOI Creative Commons
Qiaohong Sun, Chiyuan Miao, Martin Hanel

et al.

Environment International, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 128, P. 125 - 136

Published: May 3, 2019

The effects of heat stress are spatially heterogeneous owing to local variations in climate response, population density, and social conditions. Using global impact models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, our analysis shows that frequency intensity events increase, especially tropical regions (geographic perspective) developing countries (national perspective), even with warming held 1.5 °C target. An additional 0.5 increase 2 target leads >15% land area becoming exposed levels affect human health; almost all Europe will be subject increased fire danger, duration season lasting 3.3 days longer; 106 projected experience an wheat production-damage index. Globally, about 38%, 50%, 46%, 36%, 48% increases exposure health threats, wildfire, crop for soybeans, wheat, maize could avoided by constraining rather than °C. With high emissions, these impacts continue intensify over time, extending end 21st century: >95% face health-related stress, India Brazil ranked highest integrated heat-stress exposure. magnitude changes length wildfire substantially 74% land, particularly strong United States, Canada, Brazil, China, Australia, Russia. Our study should help facilitate policies account international heat-related threats posed change.

Language: Английский

Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers DOI
Walter W. Immerzeel, Arthur Lutz, Marcos Andrade

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 577(7790), P. 364 - 369

Published: Dec. 9, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

1450
Marine heatwaves under global warming DOI
Thomas L. Frölicher, Erich Fischer, Nicolas Gruber

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 560(7718), P. 360 - 364

Published: Aug. 1, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

1285
Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world DOI Creative Commons
David Ellison, Cindy E. Morris, Bruno Locatelli

et al.

Global Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 43, P. 51 - 61

Published: Feb. 9, 2017

Forest-driven water and energy cycles are poorly integrated into regional, national, continental global decision-making on climate change adaptation, mitigation, land use management. This constrains humanity’s ability to protect our planet’s life-sustaining functions. The substantial body of research we review reveals that forest, interactions provide the foundations for carbon storage, cooling terrestrial surfaces distributing resources. Forests trees must be recognized as prime regulators within water, cycles. If these functions ignored, planners will unable assess, adapt or mitigate impacts changing cover climate. Our call action targets a reversal paradigms, from carbon-centric model one treats hydrologic climate-cooling effects forests first order priority. For reasons sustainability, storage remain secondary, though valuable, by-product. tree at local, regional scales offer benefits demand wider recognition. forest- tree-centered insights analyze knowledge-base improving plans, policies actions. understanding how influence has important implications, both structure planning, management governance institutions, well might used improve adaptation mitigation efforts.

Language: Английский

Citations

960
Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal DOI
Carl-Friedrich Schleußner, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 6(9), P. 827 - 835

Published: July 25, 2016

Language: Английский

Citations

765
Plant–Pathogen Warfare under Changing Climate Conditions DOI Creative Commons
André C. Velásquez, Christian Danve M. Castroverde, Sheng Yang He

et al.

Current Biology, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 28(10), P. R619 - R634

Published: May 1, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

746
Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World DOI Open Access
Amir AghaKouchak, Felicia Chiang,

Laurie S. Huning

et al.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 48(1), P. 519 - 548

Published: Feb. 20, 2020

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected increase in frequency intensity. The impacts extreme events will also be more severe due increased exposure (growing population development) vulnerability (aging infrastructure) settlements. models attribute part projected increases intensity disasters anthropogenic emissions changes land use cover. Here, we review impacts, historical changes,and theoretical research gaps key (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, flooding). We highlight need improve our understanding dependence between individual interrelated because anthropogenic-induced warming risk not only but compound (co-occurring) cascading hazards. ▪ a world. Anthropogenic-induced causes drivers

Language: Английский

Citations

683
Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events DOI Creative Commons
Peter A. Stott, Nikolaos Christidis, Friederike E. L. Otto

et al.

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 23 - 41

Published: Dec. 16, 2015

Extreme weather and climate‐related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there clear interest from outside climate science community extent which recent damaging extreme can be linked human‐induced change or natural variability. Event attribution studies seek determine what anthropogenic has altered probability magnitude events. They have shown evidence for human influence having increased many extremely warm seasonal temperatures reduced cold parts world. The on precipitation events, droughts, storms more mixed. Although event developed rapidly years, geographical coverage remains patchy based interests capabilities individual research groups. development operational would allow timely methodical production assessments than currently obtained an ad hoc basis. For most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need robustly assessed results clearly communicated. This requires continuing methodologies assess reliability further work understand potential utility stakeholder groups decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23–41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 article categorized under: Paleoclimates Current Trends > Detection Attribution Climate Models Modeling Knowledge Generation with

Language: Английский

Citations

662
Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models DOI
Erich Fischer, Reto Knutti

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 986 - 991

Published: Oct. 26, 2016

Language: Английский

Citations

622
Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events DOI Open Access
Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Deepti Singh, Justin Mankin

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 114(19), P. 4881 - 4886

Published: April 24, 2017

Significance Extreme climate events have increased in many regions. Efforts to test the influence of global warming on individual also increased, raising possibility operational, real-time, single-event attribution. We apply four attribution metrics variables at each available point a grid. find that historical has severity and probability hottest monthly daily more than 80% observed area driest wettest approximately half area. Our results suggest scientifically durable operational is possible but they highlight importance carefully diagnosing testing physical causes events.

Language: Английский

Citations

620
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) DOI Creative Commons
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek

et al.

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 10(12), P. 4321 - 4345

Published: Nov. 30, 2017

Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of Parties (COP) to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited Intergovernmental Panel (IPCC) provide a special report in 2018 impacts global warming 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related greenhouse gas emission pathways. Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, IPCC panel accepted invitation. Here we describe response devised within Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections broaden scientific basis for report. The simulation protocol is designed allow (1) separation historical starting from conditions other drivers such as land-use changes (based model simulations); (2) quantification additional up °C, including potential overshoot long-term 2299, comparison higher mean temperature change low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic fixed at 2005 levels; (3) assessment climate effects based same scenarios while accounting simultaneous following middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) particular differential bioenergy requirements associated transformation energy system comply compared RCP6.0. With aim providing an aggregation across sectors analysis cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, facilitate range models different (global regional hydrology, lakes, crops, vegetation, forests, marine ecosystems fisheries, coastal infrastructure, supply demand, temperature-related mortality, terrestrial biodiversity).

Language: Английский

Citations

580