Climate Change and Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves: Overview of Science and Guidelines for Adaptation DOI Creative Commons
Jean‐Luc Martel, François Brissette, Philippe Lucas‐Picher

et al.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 26(10)

Published: Aug. 3, 2021

One of the most important impacts a future warmer climate is projected increase in frequency and intensity extreme rainfall events. This increasing trend seen both observational record model projections. However, thorough review recent scientific literature paints complex picture which intensification extremes depends on multitude factors. While some indices follow Clausius-Clapeyron relationship scaling an ∼7% per 1°C warming, there substantial evidence that this frequency, with longer return period events seeing larger increases, leading to super cases. The now well documented at daily scale but less clear subdaily scale. In years, simulations finer spatial temporal resolution, including convection-permitting models, have provided more reliable projections rainfall. Recent analyses indicate may also as function duration, such shorter-duration, will likely see largest increases climate. has broad implications design use intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, for overall magnitude steepening can be predicted. paper presents overview measures been adopted by various governing bodies adapt IDF curves changing Current vary from multiplying historical simple constant percentage modulating correction factors based periods them temperature increases. All these current fail recognize possible and, perhaps importantly, toward shorter-duration significantly impact stormwater runoff cities small rural catchments. discusses remaining gaps offers technical recommendations practitioners how improve resilience.

Language: Английский

Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability DOI Creative Commons
Hossein Tabari

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Aug. 13, 2020

Abstract The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify with global warming, which likely increases the intensity of extreme precipitation events and risk flooding. changes, however, often differ from theorized expectation in water‐holding capacity atmosphere warmer conditions, especially when water availability limited. Here, relationships changes flood intensities for end twenty-first century spatial seasonal are quantified. Results show an intensification over all climate regions as dry wet regions. Similarly, there increase availability. connection between becomes stronger become less extreme.

Language: Английский

Citations

1089
Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming DOI Creative Commons
Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, Camilla W. Stjern

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Nov. 5, 2019

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such occur in a warmer world however less well established, and combined effect changes frequency on total amount rain falling as much explored, spite potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations climate model simulations document strong increases frequencies occurring decadal timescales. Based find that from these intense almost doubles per degree warming, mainly due frequency, while are relatively weak, accordance previous studies. This shift towards stronger seen models, strength - hence rareness event. results, project if historical trends continue, most observed today likely double occurrence for each further Changes this magnitude dramatically than more widely communicated mean precipitation.

Language: Английский

Citations

731
Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges DOI
Jianping Huang, Y. Li, Congbin Fu

et al.

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 55(3), P. 719 - 778

Published: July 19, 2017

Abstract Drylands are home to more than 38% of the world's population and one most sensitive areas climate change human activities. This review describes recent progress in dryland research. Recent findings indicate that long‐term trend aridity index (AI) is mainly attributable increased greenhouse gas emissions, while anthropogenic aerosols exert small effects but alter its attributions. Atmosphere‐land interactions determine intensity regional response. The largest warming during last 100 years was observed over drylands accounted for half continental warming. global pattern interdecadal variability changes modulated by oceanic oscillations. different phases those oscillations induce significant land‐sea north‐south thermal contrasts, which affect westerlies planetary waves blocking frequency, thereby altering temperature precipitation. During 1948–2008, Americas became wetter due enhanced westerlies, whereas Eastern Hemisphere drier because weakened East Asian summer monsoon. as defined AI have expanded 60 projected expand 21st century. expansion has occurred semiarid regions since early 1960s. Dryland will lead reduced carbon sequestration increasing aridity, warming, rapidly growing exacerbate risk land degradation desertification near future developing countries.

Language: Английский

Citations

707
Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World DOI Open Access
Amir AghaKouchak, Felicia Chiang,

Laurie S. Huning

et al.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 48(1), P. 519 - 548

Published: Feb. 20, 2020

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected increase in frequency intensity. The impacts extreme events will also be more severe due increased exposure (growing population development) vulnerability (aging infrastructure) settlements. models attribute part projected increases intensity disasters anthropogenic emissions changes land use cover. Here, we review impacts, historical changes,and theoretical research gaps key (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, flooding). We highlight need improve our understanding dependence between individual interrelated because anthropogenic-induced warming risk not only but compound (co-occurring) cascading hazards. ▪ a world. Anthropogenic-induced causes drivers

Language: Английский

Citations

692
Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes DOI
Hayley J. Fowler, Geert Lenderink, Andreas F. Prein

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(2), P. 107 - 122

Published: Jan. 15, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

564
Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’ DOI
Iselin Medhaug, Martin B. Stolpe, Erich Fischer

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 545(7652), P. 41 - 47

Published: May 1, 2017

Language: Английский

Citations

421
Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change DOI
Richard P. Allan, Mathew Barlow, Michael P. Byrne

et al.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1472(1), P. 49 - 75

Published: April 4, 2020

Abstract Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by Earth's energy balance at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate is suppressed rapid adjustments response greenhouse gases absorbing aerosols that directly alter budget. Rapid forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, observational uncertainty can explain why observed responses currently difficult detect but expected emerge accelerate as increases aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation be smaller over land than ocean due limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated feedbacks affected adjustments. Thermodynamic fluxes amplify wet dry events, driving intensification extremes. The deviate a simple thermodynamic in‐storm larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes large‐scale dynamics catchment characteristics further modulate frequency flooding increases. Changes circulation radiative evolving surface temperature patterns capable dominating cycle some regions. Moreover, direct impact human activities through abstraction, irrigation, use change already significant component regional importance demand grows population.

Language: Английский

Citations

416
Social physics DOI Creative Commons
Marko Jusup, Petter Holme, Kiyoshi Kanazawa

et al.

Physics Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 948, P. 1 - 148

Published: Jan. 11, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

415
Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go? DOI Creative Commons
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer

et al.

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 12(3), P. 2013 - 2041

Published: Sept. 7, 2020

Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy (EEI) most critical number defining prospects for continued warming and climate change. Understanding heat gain system – particularly how much where distributed fundamental to understanding this affects ocean, land; rising surface temperature; sea level; loss grounded floating ice, are concerns society. study Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort update inventory presents an updated assessment ocean estimates as well new in atmosphere, cryosphere land over period 1960–2018. The obtains consistent long-term 1971–2018, with total 358±37 ZJ, equivalent heating rate 0.47±0.1 W m−2. Over 1971–2018 (2010–2018), majority reported 89 % (90 %), 52 both periods upper 700 m depth, 28 (30 %) 700–2000 depth layer 9 (8 below 2000 depth. Heat amounts 6 (5 these periods, 4 (3 available melting 1 (2 Our results also show that EEI not only continuing, but increasing: 0.87±0.12 m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization climate, goal universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on Change (UNFCCC) 1992 Paris Agreement 2015, requires be reduced approximately zero achieve Earth's quasi-equilibrium. amount CO2 would need from 410 353 ppm increase radiation space by 0.87 m−2, bringing back towards balance. simple number, EEI, metric scientific community public must aware measure world doing task change under control, we call implementation into stocktake based best science. Continued quantification uncertainties can achieved through maintenance current observing system, its extension areas gaps sampling, establishment framework multidisciplinary research presented study. published German Computing Centre (DKRZ, https://www.dkrz.de/, last access: 7 August 2020) DOI https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2 (von Schuckmann et al., 2020).

Language: Английский

Citations

303
Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes DOI
Selma B. Guerreiro, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(9), P. 803 - 807

Published: July 25, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

279