Bias-corrected climate projections for South Asia from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 DOI Creative Commons
Vimal Mishra, Udit Bhatia, Amar Deep Tiwari

et al.

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: Oct. 12, 2020

Abstract Climate change is likely to pose enormous challenges for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihood of millions people living in South Asia. Here, we develop daily bias-corrected data precipitation, maximum minimum temperatures at 0.25 ° spatial resolution Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka) 18 river basins located the Indian sub-continent. The dataset developed using Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) historic (1951–2014) projected (2015–2100) climate four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) output from 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6). was evaluated against observations both mean extremes temperatures. Bias corrected projections CMIP6-GCMs project a warmer (3–5 °C) wetter (13–30%) 21 st century. can be used impact assessment hydrologic sub-continental basins.

Language: Английский

Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods DOI
Günter Blöschl, Julia Hall, Alberto Viglione

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 573(7772), P. 108 - 111

Published: Aug. 28, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

1060
Anthropogenic stresses on the world’s big rivers DOI
Jim Best

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 12(1), P. 7 - 21

Published: Dec. 7, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

1036
Changing climate shifts timing of European floods DOI Open Access
Günter Blöschl, Julia Hall, Juraj Párajka

et al.

Science, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 357(6351), P. 588 - 590

Published: Aug. 11, 2017

Flooding along the river Will a warming climate affect floods? The prevailing sentiment is yes, but consistent signal in flood magnitudes has not been found. Blöschl et al. analyzed timing of floods Europe over past 50 years and found clear patterns changes that can be ascribed to effects (see Perspective by Slater Wilby). These variations include earlier spring snowmelt northeastern Europe, later winter around North Sea parts Mediterranean coast owing delayed storms, western caused soil moisture maxima. Science , this issue p. 588 see also 552

Language: Английский

Citations

891
Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods DOI
Beth Tellman, Jonathan A. Sullivan, C Kuhn

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 596(7870), P. 80 - 86

Published: Aug. 4, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

843
Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world DOI Creative Commons
Lorenzo Alfieri, Berny Bisselink, Francesco Dottori

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 5(2), P. 171 - 182

Published: Dec. 26, 2016

Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and occurrence of natural hazards. While Paris Agreement set ambitious target to limiting 1.5°C compared preindustrial levels, scientists are urged explore scenarios for different thresholds quantify ranges socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework estimate economic damage population affected by river floods at scale. It is based modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic impact simulations, makes use state-of-the-art layers hazard, exposure vulnerability 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble seven high-resolution climate projections Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 used derive streamflow simulations in future climate. Those were analyzed assess frequency magnitude their impacts under corresponding 1.5°C, 2°C, 4°C warming. Results indicate clear positive correlation flood risk At warming, countries representing more than 70% gross domestic product will face increases excess 500%. Changes unevenly distributed, with largest Asia, U.S., Europe. contrast, changes statistically not significant most Africa Oceania all considered levels.

Language: Английский

Citations

714
Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World DOI Open Access
Amir AghaKouchak, Felicia Chiang,

Laurie S. Huning

et al.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 48(1), P. 519 - 548

Published: Feb. 20, 2020

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected increase in frequency intensity. The impacts extreme events will also be more severe due increased exposure (growing population development) vulnerability (aging infrastructure) settlements. models attribute part projected increases intensity disasters anthropogenic emissions changes land use cover. Here, we review impacts, historical changes,and theoretical research gaps key (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, flooding). We highlight need improve our understanding dependence between individual interrelated because anthropogenic-induced warming risk not only but compound (co-occurring) cascading hazards. ▪ a world. Anthropogenic-induced causes drivers

Language: Английский

Citations

683
Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming DOI
Francesco Dottori, Wojciech Szewczyk, Juan-Carlos Ciscar

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(9), P. 781 - 786

Published: Aug. 15, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

597
PCR-GLOBWB 2: a 5 arcmin global hydrological and water resources model DOI Creative Commons
Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Rens van Beek, Niko Wanders

et al.

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 11(6), P. 2429 - 2453

Published: June 20, 2018

Abstract. We present PCR-GLOBWB 2, a global hydrology and water resources model. Compared to previous versions of PCR-GLOBWB, this version fully integrates use. Sector-specific demand, groundwater surface withdrawal, consumption, return flows are dynamically calculated at every time step interact directly with the simulated hydrology. 2 has been rewritten in Python PCRaster modular structure, allowing easier replacement, maintenance, development model components. implemented 5 arcmin resolution, but parameterized 30 resolution is also available. Both available as open-source codes on https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model (Sutanudjaja et al., 2017a). its own routines for dynamics routing. These relatively simple can alternatively be replaced by coupling two-layer 1-D–2-D hydrodynamic models. Here, we describe main components model, compare results versions, evaluate their performance using Global Runoff Data Centre discharge data. Results show that notably better than version. Furthermore, series total storage (TWS) those observed GRACE, showing similar negative trends areas prevalent depletion. Also, find withdrawal matches reasonably well reported from AQUASTAT, while source sector provide mixed results.

Language: Английский

Citations

557
Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment DOI
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Keith Clarke

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(3), P. 193 - 199

Published: Feb. 21, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

494
Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries DOI Creative Commons
Jun Rentschler, Melda Salhab, Bramka Arga Jafino

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Flooding is among the most prevalent natural hazards, with particularly disastrous impacts in low-income countries. This study presents global estimates of number people exposed to high flood risks interaction poverty. It finds that 1.81 billion (23% world population) are directly 1-in-100-year floods. Of these, 1.24 located South and East Asia, where China (395 million) India (390 account for over one-third exposure. Low- middle-income countries home 89% world’s flood-exposed people. 170 million facing risk extreme poverty (living on under $1.90 per day), 44% Sub-Saharan Africa. Over 780 those living $5.50 day face risk. Using state-of-the-art data, our findings highlight scale priority regions mitigation measures support resilient development.

Language: Английский

Citations

473