Reduced exposure to extreme precipitation from 0.5 °C less warming in global land monsoon regions DOI Creative Commons
Wenxia Zhang, Tianjun Zhou, Liwei Zou

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Aug. 2, 2018

The Paris Agreement set a goal to keep global warming well below 2 °C and pursue efforts limit it 1.5 °C. Understanding how 0.5 less reduces impacts risks is key for climate policies. Here, we show that both areal population exposures dangerous extreme precipitation events (e.g., once in 10- 20-year events) would increase consistently with the populous land monsoon regions based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multimodel projections. reduce once-in-20-year by 25% (18–41%) 36% (22–46%), respectively. avoided are more remarkable intense extremes. Among subregions, South Africa most impacted, followed Asia East Asia. Our results improve understanding of future vulnerability to, risk of, extremes, which paramount mitigation adaptation activities region where nearly two-thirds world's lives. has been suffering from precipitation. authors limiting instead could baseline rainfall extremes

Language: Английский

Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability DOI Creative Commons
Hossein Tabari

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Aug. 13, 2020

Abstract The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify with global warming, which likely increases the intensity of extreme precipitation events and risk flooding. changes, however, often differ from theorized expectation in water‐holding capacity atmosphere warmer conditions, especially when water availability limited. Here, relationships changes flood intensities for end twenty-first century spatial seasonal are quantified. Results show an intensification over all climate regions as dry wet regions. Similarly, there increase availability. connection between becomes stronger become less extreme.

Language: Английский

Citations

1089
Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming DOI Creative Commons
Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, Camilla W. Stjern

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Nov. 5, 2019

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such occur in a warmer world however less well established, and combined effect changes frequency on total amount rain falling as much explored, spite potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations climate model simulations document strong increases frequencies occurring decadal timescales. Based find that from these intense almost doubles per degree warming, mainly due frequency, while are relatively weak, accordance previous studies. This shift towards stronger seen models, strength - hence rareness event. results, project if historical trends continue, most observed today likely double occurrence for each further Changes this magnitude dramatically than more widely communicated mean precipitation.

Language: Английский

Citations

721
The imbalance of the Asian water tower DOI
Tandong Yao, Tobias Bolch, Deliang Chen

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(10), P. 618 - 632

Published: June 7, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

695
Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World DOI Open Access
Amir AghaKouchak, Felicia Chiang,

Laurie S. Huning

et al.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 48(1), P. 519 - 548

Published: Feb. 20, 2020

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected increase in frequency intensity. The impacts extreme events will also be more severe due increased exposure (growing population development) vulnerability (aging infrastructure) settlements. models attribute part projected increases intensity disasters anthropogenic emissions changes land use cover. Here, we review impacts, historical changes,and theoretical research gaps key (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, flooding). We highlight need improve our understanding dependence between individual interrelated because anthropogenic-induced warming risk not only but compound (co-occurring) cascading hazards. ▪ a world. Anthropogenic-induced causes drivers

Language: Английский

Citations

683
Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change DOI Creative Commons
Theodore G. Shepherd, Emily Boyd, Raphael Calel

et al.

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 151(3-4), P. 555 - 571

Published: Nov. 10, 2018

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement representation uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects probabilistic, based on ensembles model simulations. In face deep uncertainties, known limitations are becoming apparent. An alternative thus emerging which may be called a 'storyline' approach. We define storyline as physically self-consistent unfolding past events, or plausible future events pathways. No priori probability assessed; emphasis placed instead understanding driving factors involved, and plausibility those factors. introduce typology four reasons using storylines represent change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing an event-oriented rather than probabilistic manner, corresponds more directly how people perceive respond risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making allowing one work backward from particular vulnerability decision point, combining with other relevant address compound develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing basis partitioning uncertainty, thereby use credible regional models conditioned manner (iv) exploring boundaries plausibility, guarding against false precision surprise. Storylines also offer powerful way linking human change.

Language: Английский

Citations

588
Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes DOI
Hayley J. Fowler, Geert Lenderink, Andreas F. Prein

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(2), P. 107 - 122

Published: Jan. 15, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

564
Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change DOI Creative Commons
Emanuele Bevacqua, Douglas Maraun, Michalis Vousdoukas

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 5(9)

Published: Sept. 6, 2019

More intense precipitation will increase the flood potential from concurring storm surges and in future.

Language: Английский

Citations

463
Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods DOI
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Sergiy Vorogushyn

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(9), P. 592 - 609

Published: Aug. 10, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

434
Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change DOI
Richard P. Allan, Mathew Barlow, Michael P. Byrne

et al.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1472(1), P. 49 - 75

Published: April 4, 2020

Abstract Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by Earth's energy balance at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate is suppressed rapid adjustments response greenhouse gases absorbing aerosols that directly alter budget. Rapid forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, observational uncertainty can explain why observed responses currently difficult detect but expected emerge accelerate as increases aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation be smaller over land than ocean due limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated feedbacks affected adjustments. Thermodynamic fluxes amplify wet dry events, driving intensification extremes. The deviate a simple thermodynamic in‐storm larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes large‐scale dynamics catchment characteristics further modulate frequency flooding increases. Changes circulation radiative evolving surface temperature patterns capable dominating cycle some regions. Moreover, direct impact human activities through abstraction, irrigation, use change already significant component regional importance demand grows population.

Language: Английский

Citations

416
Increase in extreme precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India DOI Creative Commons
Sourav Mukherjee, Saran Aadhar, Dáithí A. Stone

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 20, P. 45 - 53

Published: March 23, 2018

India has witnessed some of the most devastating extreme precipitation events, which have affected urban transportation, agriculture, and infrastructure. Despite profound implications damage due to influence anthropogenic warming on intensity frequency events over remains poorly constrained. Here using gridded observations simulations from Coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) Climate 20th century plus (C20C+) detection attribution (D&A) project, we show that increased in during last few decades. Along with precipitation, dew point temperature also 1979–2015. The scaling relationship between shows a super (more than 7% increase per unit rise temperature) Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) for majority south India. Moreover, southern central higher (10%/°C) north (3.5%/°C). Our analysis Hist (historic) HistNat (historic natural) CMIP5 C20C+ projects confirms an under warming. 1–5 day maxima at 5–500 year return period increases (10–30%) extremes is projected more prominently mid end 21st representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. results significant contribution infrastructure, water resources

Language: Английский

Citations

376