Forecasting wildlife die‐offs from extreme heat events DOI
Himali Udeshinie Ratnayake, Michael Kearney, Pallavi Govekar

et al.

Animal Conservation, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 22(4), P. 386 - 395

Published: Jan. 31, 2019

Abstract Extreme heat events pose increasing challenges to biodiversity conservation worldwide, yet our ability predict the time, place and magnitude of their impacts on wildlife is limited. in Australia are known kill thousands flying‐foxes ( Pteropus spp.), such die‐offs expected become more frequent widespread future under anthropogenic climate change. There a growing need for predicting when where heat‐related would occur, facilitate short‐term management actions. In this study, we used gridded hourly air temperature forecasts [Australian Community Climate Earth‐System Simulator (ACCESS‐R) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model] from Australian Bureau Meteorology flying‐fox mortality based an empirically determined threshold 42.0°C. We tested accuracy precision model using twofold evaluation ACCESS‐R NWP forecast during recorded extreme event with situ measurements interpolated weather station data. While results showed slight discrepancy between modelled measured temperatures, there was no significant difference forecast's overall summer period. evaluated predictions different thresholds (38.0, 40.0, 42.0 44.0°C). Our revealed probability occurrence ≥42.0°C, while 24‐ 48‐h accurately predicted 77 73% die‐offs, respectively. Thus, use 42.0°C can reliably at landscape scale. principle, forecaster be any species thermal tolerance data therefore promising new tool prioritizing adaptation actions that aim conserve face

Language: Английский

The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change DOI Open Access
Christopher H. Trisos, Cory Merow, Alex L. Pigot

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 580(7804), P. 496 - 501

Published: April 8, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

584

Soil microbiota as game-changers in restoration of degraded lands DOI
Oksana Coban, Gerlinde B. De Deyn, Martine van der Ploeg

et al.

Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 375(6584)

Published: March 3, 2022

Land degradation reduces soil functioning and, consequently, the services that provides. Soil hydrological functions are critical to combat and promote restoration. microorganisms affect hydrology, but role of microbiota in forming sustaining is not well explored. Case studies indicate potential as game-changers restoring functions. We review state art microorganism use land restoration technology, groups with greatest for restoration, knowledge effect on physical properties, proposed strategies long-term degraded lands. also emphasize need advance emerging research field biophysical landscape interactions support soil-plant ecosystem practices.

Language: Английский

Citations

461

Biological Impacts of Marine Heatwaves DOI Creative Commons
Kathryn E. Smith, Michael T. Burrows, Alistair J. Hobday

et al.

Annual Review of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 119 - 145

Published: Aug. 17, 2022

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)-discrete periods anomalously warm water-have intensified and become more frequent over past century, impacting integrity ecosystems globally. We review synthesize current understanding MHW impacts at individual, population, community levels. then examine how these affect broader ecosystem services discuss state research on biological MHWs. Finally, we explore emergent approaches to predicting occurrence andimpacts future events, along with adaptation management approaches. With further increases in intensity frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs emerging as pervasive stressors A deeper mechanistic their is needed better predict adapt increased activity Anthropocene.

Language: Английский

Citations

356

Scientists' warning on climate change and insects DOI
Jeffrey A. Harvey, Kévin Tougeron, Rieta Gols

et al.

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 93(1)

Published: Nov. 7, 2022

Abstract Climate warming is considered to be among the most serious of anthropogenic stresses environment, because it not only has direct effects on biodiversity, but also exacerbates harmful other human‐mediated threats. The associated consequences are potentially severe, particularly in terms threats species preservation, as well preservation an array ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Among affected groups animals insects—central components many ecosystems—for which climate change pervasive from individuals communities. In this contribution scientists' warning series, we summarize effect gradual global surface temperature increase insects, physiology, behavior, phenology, distribution, and interactions, increased frequency duration extreme events such hot cold spells, fires, droughts, floods these parameters. We warn that, if no action taken better understand reduce will drastically our ability build a sustainable future based healthy, functional ecosystems. discuss perspectives relevant ways conserve insects face change, offer several key recommendations management approaches that can adopted, policies should pursued, involvement general public protection effort.

Language: Английский

Citations

334

Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events DOI Creative Commons
Sean L. Maxwell, Nathalie Butt, Martine Maron

et al.

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 25(4), P. 613 - 625

Published: Dec. 11, 2018

Abstract Aim Many conservation efforts now focus on mitigating biodiversity loss due to climate change. While a impacts from mean, long‐term changes in is warranted, the vast majority of plans largely ignore another key factor change—changes frequency and intensity extreme weather events. A typology full range severity ecological responses events would help underpin tracking their impacts. Location Global. Methods Here, we review 519 observational studies between 1941 2015. We include amphibians, birds, fish, invertebrates, mammals, plants reptiles cyclones, drought, flood, cold waves heat waves. Results Negative were most commonly reported, accounting for 57% all documented responses. There over 100 cases >25% population decline 31 local extirpation. Sixty per cent our observed more than 1 year, that monitored species or ecosystem recovery following exposure an event, 38% showed ecosystems did not recover pre‐disturbance levels. Main conclusions Extreme have profound implications management. discuss current conceptual challenges associated with incorporating into planning efforts, which how quantify sensitivity adaptive capacity events, account interactions other stressors, maximize frequent intense

Language: Английский

Citations

249

Heat health risk assessment in Philippine cities using remotely sensed data and social-ecological indicators DOI Creative Commons
Ronald C. Estoque,

Makoto Ooba,

Xerxes Seposo

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: March 27, 2020

Abstract More than half of the world’s population currently live in urban areas and are particularly at risk from combined effects heat island phenomenon increases due to climate change. Here, by using remotely sensed surface temperature data social-ecological indicators, focusing on hot dry season, applying framework Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change, we assessed current health 139 Philippine cities, which account for about 40% country’s total population. The cities high or very found Metro Manila, where levels hazard exposure high. most vulnerable are, however, mainly outside national capital region, sensitivity is higher capacity cope adapt lower. Cities with vulnerability must be prioritized adaptation. Our results will contribute profiling Philippines understanding city-level risks developing regions Asia-Pacific.

Language: Английский

Citations

237

Climate change‐mediated temperature extremes and insects: From outbreaks to breakdowns DOI Creative Commons
Jeffrey A. Harvey, Robin Heinen, Rieta Gols

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 26(12), P. 6685 - 6701

Published: Oct. 2, 2020

Abstract Insects are among the most diverse and widespread animals across biosphere well‐known for their contributions to ecosystem functioning services. Recent increases in frequency magnitude of climatic extremes (CE), particular temperature (TE) owing anthropogenic climate change, exposing insect populations communities unprecedented stresses. However, a major problem understanding responses TE is that they still highly unpredictable both spatially temporally, which reduces frequency‐ or direction‐dependent selective by insects. Moreover, how species interactions community structure may change response stresses imposed poorly understood. Here we provide an overview terrestrial insects respond integrating organismal physiology, multitrophic, community‐level interactions, building up explore scenarios population explosions crashes have ecosystem‐level consequences. We argue can push herbivores natural enemies even beyond adaptive limits, differ intimately involved trophic leading phenological disruptions structural reorganization food webs. ultimately lead outbreak–breakdown cycles with detrimental consequences resilience. Lastly, suggest new research lines will help achieve better wide range CE.

Language: Английский

Citations

206

Short-interval severe fire erodes the resilience of subalpine lodgepole pine forests DOI Open Access
Monica G. Turner, Kristin H. Braziunas, Winslow D. Hansen

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 116(23), P. 11319 - 11328

Published: May 20, 2019

Subalpine forests in the northern Rocky Mountains have been resilient to stand-replacing fires that historically burned at 100- 300-year intervals. Fire intervals are projected decline drastically as climate warms, and reburn before recovering from previous fire may lose their ability rebound. We studied recent Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, United States) asked whether short-interval (<30 years) can erode lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forest resilience via increased burn severity, reduced early postfire tree regeneration, carbon stocks, slower recovery. During 2016, reburned young regenerated after wildfires 1988 2000. 2017, we sampled 0.25-ha plots reburns (n = 18) nearby did not 9). also simulated stand development with without assess recovery trajectories. Nearly all prefire biomass was combusted ("crown plus") some which trees were dense small (≤4-cm basal diameter). Postfire seedling density sixfold relative (long-interval) fire, high-density stands (>40,000 stems ha-1) converted sparse (<1,000 ha-1). In reburns, coarse wood aboveground stocks by 65 62%, respectively, areas reburn. Increased loss plus regeneration delayed >150 years. Forests transition nonforest, but extreme severity foreshadow an erosion of resilience.

Language: Английский

Citations

203

Severe Continental-Scale Impacts of Climate Change Are Happening Now: Extreme Climate Events Impact Marine Habitat Forming Communities Along 45% of Australia’s Coast DOI Creative Commons
Russell C. Babcock, Rodrigo H. Bustamante, Elizabeth A. Fulton

et al.

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: July 24, 2019

Recent increases in the frequency of Extreme Climate Events (ECEs) such as heatwaves and floods have been attributed to climate change, could pronounced ecosystem evolutionary impacts because they provide little opportunity for organisms acclimate or adapt. Here we synthesize information on a series ECEs Australia from 2011-2017 that led well-documented, abrupt extensive mortality key marine habitat-forming – corals, kelps, seagrasses mangroves along nearly more than 45% continental coastline Australia. Coral bleaching occurred across much northern due affecting different regions 2011, 2013, 2016 2017, while seagrass was impacted by anomalously high rainfall events 2011 both east west tropical coasts. A heatwave off western during La Niña extended into temperate subtropical regions, causing widespread kelp forests communities at their distribution limits. Mangrove experienced El Niño coastal areas north-western severe water stress driven drought low mean sea levels. This reflects variety heatwaves, intense storms, drought. Their repeated occurrence wide extent are consistent with projections increased intensity ECEs, broad implications elsewhere similar trends predicted globally. The unprecedented nature these ECE has likely produced substantial ecosystem-wide repercussions. Predictions models suggest taxa will long-term some cases irreversible consequences, especially if continue become frequent severe. ecological changes caused greater slower warming leads gradual reorganisation possible evolution adaptation. an emerging threat ecosystems, require better seasonal prediction mitigation strategies.

Language: Английский

Citations

186

Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress DOI
D.E. Bauman, Claire Fortunel, Guillaume Delhaye

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 608(7923), P. 528 - 533

Published: May 18, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

159