Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(2), P. 107 - 122

Published: Jan. 15, 2021

Language: Английский

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Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1472(1), P. 49 - 75

Published: April 4, 2020

Abstract Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by Earth's energy balance at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate is suppressed rapid adjustments response greenhouse gases absorbing aerosols that directly alter budget. Rapid forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, observational uncertainty can explain why observed responses currently difficult detect but expected emerge accelerate as increases aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation be smaller over land than ocean due limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated feedbacks affected adjustments. Thermodynamic fluxes amplify wet dry events, driving intensification extremes. The deviate a simple thermodynamic in‐storm larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes large‐scale dynamics catchment characteristics further modulate frequency flooding increases. Changes circulation radiative evolving surface temperature patterns capable dominating cycle some regions. Moreover, direct impact human activities through abstraction, irrigation, use change already significant component regional importance demand grows population.

Language: Английский

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Influence of changes in rainfall and soil moisture on trends in flooding

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 575, P. 432 - 441

Published: May 18, 2019

Language: Английский

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Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 8(5)

Published: April 8, 2020

Outputs from new state-of-the-art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) promise improvement and enhancement of change projections information for Australia. Here we focus on three key aspects CMIP6: what is in these models, how available CMIP6 evaluate compared to CMIP5, their future Australian CMIP5 focussing highest emissions scenario. The ensemble has several features relevance policymakers others, example, integrated matrix socioeconomic concentration pathways. show incremental improvements simulation region, including a reduced equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias, slightly improved rainfall teleconnections with large-scale drivers, representation atmosphere ocean extreme heat events, as well dynamic sea level. However, important regional biases remain, evident excessive over Maritime Continent pattern nearby tropical convergence zones. Projections temperature broadly agree those except group higher sensitivity greater warming increase some extremes after 2050. are similar but examined narrower range austral summer Northern Australia winter Southern Overall, national likely be previous versions perhaps areas confidence clarity.

Language: Английский

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Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(6)

Published: Aug. 16, 2021

Abstract Approximately 10 years ago, convection‐permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) emerged as a promising computationally affordable tool to produce fine resolution (1–4 km) decadal‐long simulations with explicitly resolved deep convection. This explicit representation is expected reduce projection uncertainty related convection parameterizations found in most models. A recent surge CPRCM decadal over larger domains, sometimes covering continents, has led important insights into advantages and limitations. Furthermore, new observational gridded datasets spatial temporal (~1 km; ~1 h) resolutions have leveraged additional knowledge through evaluations of the added value CPRCMs. With an improved coordination frame ongoing international initiatives, production ensembles provide more robust projections better identification their associated uncertainties. review paper presents overview methodology latest research on current future climates. Impact studies that are already taking advantage these highlighted. ends by proposing next steps could be accomplished continue exploiting full potential article categorized under: Climate Models Modeling > Earth System

Language: Английский

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Climate Adaptation as a Control Problem: Review and Perspectives on Dynamic Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 56(2)

Published: Jan. 7, 2020

Climate change introduces substantial uncertainty to water resources planning and raises the key question: when, or under what conditions, should adaptation occur? A number of recent studies aim identify policies mapping future observations actions—in other words, framing climate as an optimal control problem. This paper uses paradigm review classify dynamic according their approaches characterization, policy structure, solution methods. We propose a set research gaps opportunities in this area centered on challenge characterizing uncertainty, which prevents unambiguous application methods These include exogenous forcing, model parameters propagated through chain hydrologic models; endogenous human-environmental system dynamics across multiple scales; sampling due finite length historical projections. Recognizing these challenges, several exist improve use for adaptation, namely, how problem context understanding processes might assist with quantification experimental design, out-of-sample validation robustness optimized policies, monitoring data assimilation, including trend detection, Bayesian inference, indicator variable selection. conclude summary recommendations lens control.

Language: Английский

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Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 603, P. 126994 - 126994

Published: Sept. 27, 2021

Language: Английский

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Increases in summertime concurrent drought and heatwave in Eastern China

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 28, P. 100242 - 100242

Published: Dec. 4, 2019

Droughts and heatwaves can have profound impacts on society the environment, which be exacerbated by their co-occurrence. However, in China, co-occurrence of droughts has not been explored. Here we assess concurrent drought heatwave events (CONDH) summer across eastern China (EC) for 1962–2015. We found that these are more frequent North South EC (>20 during 1962–2015) less central region. In regions, intensity is ~2–4 times higher conditions than average conditions. Also, two regions number CONDH double what would expected if were independent. When analyzing changes between 1962–1988 1989–2015, dependence was shown to stable, but doubled parts small areas South, decreased over 50% southern hotspots compound therefore it crucial considering both together when assessing how adapt present future weather extremes.

Language: Английский

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A review of past and projected changes in Australia's rainfall

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(3)

Published: March 7, 2019

There has been much attention given to the spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in mean extreme rainfall over Australia during past century. As is second driest continent on Earth, reliable projections around trends variability future are crucial for policymakers water resource management. This article comprehensively reviews current published literature Australia's from pre‐instrumental instrumental records, climatic drivers variability, attribution long‐term trends, methods with particular reference a recent case study (2010–2012 east event) projected 21st Notable observational record decrease southwest southeast an increase northwest since 1950. The general consensus research into that will continue warming world, while northern eastern remain uncertain. still significant knowledge gaps causes observed both extremes, ability climate models accurately represent Australian region projections. These identified, avenues directions proposed. categorized under: Paleoclimates Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

Language: Английский

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Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1° resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Aug. 24, 2021

Challenges exist for assessing the impacts of climate and change on hydrological cycle local regional scales, in turn water resources, food, energy, natural hazards. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) represents atmospheric demand water, which is required at high spatial temporal resolutions to compute actual thus close balance near land surface many such applications, but there are currently no available high-resolution datasets PET. Here we develop an hourly PET dataset (hPET) global 0.1° resolution, based output from recently developed ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset, over period 1981 present. We show how hPET compares other datasets, common spatiotemporal time frames, with respect patterns climatology seasonal variations selected humid arid locations across globe. provide data users employ multiple applications explore diurnal evaporative water.

Language: Английский

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