Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(10), P. 500 - 515

Published: Aug. 18, 2020

Language: Английский

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Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(1)

Published: Jan. 7, 2021

Abstract The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, radiative power fires, and extraordinary number fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched historical record. Australia’s hottest driest year on record, 2019, characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads primed landscape to burn when exposed dangerous fire weather ignition. combination climate variability long-term trends generated extremes experienced compounding effects two or more modes their fire-promoting phases (as occurred 2019) has historically increased chances large occurring Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates tropical Pacific Indian ocean are now unusually frequent compared with natural pre-industrial times. Indicators danger have already emerged outside range experience, suggesting projections made than a decade ago increases climate-driven risk would be detectable 2020, indeed eventuated. multiple change contributors Australia, as well observed non-linear escalation extent intensity, raise likelihood may continue rapidly intensify future. Improving local national adaptation measures while pursuing ambitious global mitigation efforts provide best strategy for limiting further

Language: Английский

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Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene

Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 370(6519)

Published: Nov. 20, 2020

Fire's growing impacts on ecosystems Fire has played a prominent role in the evolution of biodiversity and is natural factor shaping many ecological communities. However, incidence fire been exacerbated by human activity, this now affecting habitats that have never prone or adapted. Kelly et al. review how such changes are already threatening species with extinction transforming terrestrial discuss trends causing regimes. They also consider actions could be taken conservationists policy-makers to help sustain time changing activity. Science , issue p. eabb0355

Language: Английский

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Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future

Frontiers in Conservation Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 13, 2021

We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention require urgent action. First, we review the evidence future conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. The scale of threats to biosphere all its lifeforms — including humanity is in fact so great it difficult grasp for even well-informed experts. Second, ask what political or economic system, leadership, prepared handle predicted disasters, capable such Third, this dire situation places an extraordinary responsibility on scientists speak out candidly accurately when engaging with government, business, public. especially draw lack appreciation enormous challenges creating a sustainable future. added stresses human health, wealth, well-being perversely diminish our capacity mitigate erosion ecosystem services which society depends. science underlying these strong, but awareness weak. Without fully appreciating broadcasting problems enormity solutions required, fail achieve modest sustainability goals.

Language: Английский

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Impact of Australia's catastrophic 2019/20 bushfire season on communities and environment. Retrospective analysis and current trends

Journal of Safety Science and Resilience, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(1), P. 44 - 56

Published: July 1, 2020

2019/20 Australia's bushfire season (Black Summer fires) occurred during a period of record breaking temperatures and extremely low rainfall. To understand the impact these climatic values we conducted preliminary analysis compared it with fire seasons between March 2000 2020 in states New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, Australia (SA). Forest management were asked to provide data on number fires, burned area, life house loss, as well weather conditions. By Black fires burnt almost 19 million hectares, destroyed over 3,000 houses, killed 33 people. Data showed that they unprecedented terms all areas. A mega-fires NSW resulting more area than any last 20 years. One them was largest recorded forest Australian history. Victoria had highest burned, second numbers houses lost for same period. SA confirmed existing trends categories two decades Victoria. It smoke from bushfires may be significant concern future global community, travels other countries continents. Based data, will take many years restore economy infrastructure impacted areas, recover animal vegetation biodiversity.

Language: Английский

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Impact of 2019–2020 mega-fires on Australian fauna habitat

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 4(10), P. 1321 - 1326

Published: July 20, 2020

Language: Английский

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Wildfires and global change

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 19(7), P. 387 - 395

Published: June 3, 2021

No single factor produces wildfires; rather, they occur when fire thresholds (ignitions, fuels, and drought) are crossed. Anomalous weather events may lower these thereby enhance the likelihood spread of wildfires. Climate change increases frequency with which some crossed, extending duration season increasing dry years. However, climate‐related factors do not explain all complexity global fire‐regime changes, as altered ignition patterns (eg human behavior) fuel structures land‐use suppression, drought‐induced dieback, fragmentation) extremely important. When size a will largely depend on extent available area continuous fuels in landscape.

Language: Английский

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The 2019/20 Australian wildfires generated a persistent smoke-charged vortex rising up to 35 km altitude

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(1)

Published: Sept. 21, 2020

Abstract The Australian bushfires around the turn of year 2020 generated an unprecedented perturbation stratospheric composition, dynamical circulation and radiative balance. Here we show from satellite observations that resulting planetary-scale blocking solar radiation by smoke is larger than any previously documented wildfires same order as forcing produced moderate volcanic eruptions. A striking effect heating intense patch was generation a self-maintained anticyclonic vortex measuring 1000 km in diameter featuring its own ozone hole. highly stable persisted stratosphere for over 13 weeks, travelled 66,000 lifted confined bubble moisture to 35 altitude. Its evolution tracked several satellite-based sensors successfully resolved European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational system, primarily based on data. Because are expected increase frequency strength changing climate, suggest extraordinary events this type may contribute significantly global composition coming decades.

Language: Английский

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Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods for Forest Fire Modeling and Prediction

Symmetry, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 12(6), P. 1022 - 1022

Published: June 17, 2020

Predicting and mapping fire susceptibility is a top research priority in fire-prone forests worldwide. This study evaluates the abilities of Bayes Network (BN), Naïve (NB), Decision Tree (DT), Multivariate Logistic Regression (MLP) machine learning methods for prediction across Pu Mat National Park, Nghe An Province, Vietnam. The modeling methodology was formulated based on processing information from 57 historical fires set nine spatially explicit explanatory variables, namely elevation, slope degree, aspect, average annual temperate, drought index, river density, land cover, distance roads residential areas. Using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) seven other performance metrics, models were validated terms their to elucidate general behaviors Park predict future fires. Despite few differences between AUC values, BN model with an value 0.96 dominant over predicting second best DT (AUC = 0.94), followed by NB 0.939), MLR 0.937) models. Our robust analysis demonstrated that these are sufficiently response training validation datasets change. Further, results revealed moderate high levels susceptibilities associated ~19% where human activities numerous. resultant maps provide basis developing more efficient fire-fighting strategies reorganizing policies favor sustainable management forest resources.

Language: Английский

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The 2019/2020 mega-fires exposed Australian ecosystems to an unprecedented extent of high-severity fire

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 044029 - 044029

Published: March 3, 2021

Abstract Extreme fire seasons characterised by very large ‘mega-fires’ have demonstrably increased area burnt across forested regions globally. However, the effect of extreme on severity, a measure impacts ecosystems, remains unclear. Very wildfires an unprecedented temperate forest, woodland and shrubland south-eastern Australia in 2019/2020, providing opportunity to examine impact fires severity patterns. We developed atlas wildfire between 1988 2020 test (a) whether 2019/2020 season was more severe than previous seasons, (b) if proportion high-severity within burn extent (HSp) increases with size annual burnt. demonstrate that were generally greater but not proportionally fires, owing constant scaling HSp dominant dry-forest communities. did increase increasing wet-forests less-common rainforest The absolute (∼1.8 M ha) larger previously seen, accounting for ∼44% over past 33 years. Our results are rare defining feature regimes regions, disproportionate influence mega-fires

Language: Английский

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