Global Carbon Budget 2021

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 1917 - 2005

Published: April 26, 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize datasets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, land use data bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For first time, an approach shown reconcile our ELUC estimate one national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting collective countries' progress. year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative 2019, fossil at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 when carbonation included), was 0.9 0.7 yr−1, for emission 10.2 0.8 (37.4 2.9 GtCO2). Also, GATM 5.0 0.2 (2.4 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 3.0 0.4 SLAND 1 BIM −0.8 yr−1. atmospheric averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ppm. Preliminary 2021 suggest rebound +4.8 (4.2 %) globally. Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2020, but discrepancies up persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows (1) persistent large uncertainty emissions, (2) low agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living update documents used this new progress cycle compared previous publications dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, 2014, 2013). presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 2021).

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2022

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(11), P. 4811 - 4900

Published: Nov. 11, 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodologies quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, land use bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative 2020, fossil at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 when carbonation included), ELUC was 1.1 0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 10.9 0.8 (40.0 2.9 GtCO2). Also, GATM 5.2 0.2 (2.5 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 0.4 SLAND 3.5 0.9 BIM −0.6 (i.e. sources were too low or sinks high). atmospheric averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ppm. Preliminary 2022 suggest an increase +1.0 (0.1 1.9 %) globally reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2021, but discrepancies up 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extratropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living update documents used this new progress cycle compared previous publications set. presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2023

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 5301 - 5369

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Language: Английский

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World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021

BioScience, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 71(9), P. 894 - 898

Published: July 6, 2021

Language: Английский

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Optical vegetation indices for monitoring terrestrial ecosystems globally

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(7), P. 477 - 493

Published: May 31, 2022

Language: Английский

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Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

Nature, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 608(7923), P. 534 - 539

Published: July 13, 2022

Abstract Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural anthropogenic perturbations (that is, resilience) 1 . Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation forest resilience 2 , yet little known how it evolving response climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning show resilience, quantified terms critical slowing down indicators 3–5 has changed during the period 2000–2020. We that tropical, arid temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline probably related increased water limitations variability. By contrast, boreal divergent local patterns an average increasing trend benefiting warming CO fertilization, which may outweigh adverse effects These emerge consistently both managed intact forests, corroborating existence common large-scale drivers. Reductions statistically linked abrupt declines primary productivity, occurring slow drifting towards threshold. Approximately 23% undisturbed corresponding 3.32 Pg C gross have already reached threshold further degradation resilience. Together, these signals reveal widespread perturbation should be accounted for design land-based mitigation adaptation plans.

Language: Английский

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Terrestrial carbon sinks in China and around the world and their contribution to carbon neutrality

Science China Life Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 65(5), P. 861 - 895

Published: Feb. 8, 2022

Language: Английский

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The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(6630)

Published: Jan. 26, 2023

Approximately 2.5 × 106 square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% all remaining forests in region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams carbon per year (Pg C year-1), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, deforestation (0.06 0.21 Pg year-1). can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly dwellers. Projections indicate that will remain a dominant source independent rates. Policies tackle should be integrated with efforts curb complemented innovative measures addressing disturbances degrade forest.

Language: Английский

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Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 1639 - 1675

Published: April 11, 2022

Abstract. In support of the global stocktake Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process results an ensemble atmospheric inversions in order make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO2) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries United Nations Framework Convention Climate Change (UNFCCC). From we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture waste emissions, as well nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. To compare inversion with reports, compiled new harmonized database removals from periodical UNFCCC Annex I countries, sporadic less detailed reports non-Annex given communications biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method reconcile is applied selected large covering ∼90 % land uptake CO2 top emitters CH4 N2O. Our uses produced Global Carbon Project three gases, ancillary data. We examine role fluxes caused lateral transfer processes rivers trade crop wood products unmanaged lands, both not accounted NGHGIs. Here show that, despite spread across inversions, median available models points larger terrestrial sink than over temperate or groups Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada European Union. For CH4, find good consistency between assimilating only data situ network those using satellite retrievals tendency diagnose higher emission estimates reported particular, oil- gas-extracting central Asia Persian Gulf region tend systematically report lower compared estimated inversions. N2O, produce tropical even when attempting consider managed many can be tentatively attributed lack reporting indirect N2O deposition leaching rivers, existence natural sources intertwined underestimation factors direct agricultural soil Inversions provide insights seasonal interannual anomalies, e.g., during extreme events such drought abnormal fire episodes, whereas inventory methods are established estimate trends multi-annual changes. As much denser sampling concentrations different satellites coordinated constellation expected coming years, methodology proposed here (e.g., NGHGIs) could regularly monitoring effectiveness mitigation policy progress meet objective pledges. dataset constructed publicly at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5089799 (Deng et al., 2021).

Language: Английский

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Doubling of annual forest carbon loss over the tropics during the early twenty-first century

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5(5), P. 444 - 451

Published: Feb. 28, 2022

Previous estimates of tropical forest carbon loss in the twenty-first century using satellite data typically focus on its magnitude, whereas regional trajectories and associated drivers are rarely reported. Here we used different high-resolution datasets to show a doubling gross worldwide from 0.97 ± 0.16 PgC yr−1 2001–2005 1.99 0.13 2015–2019. This increase conversion is higher than bookkeeping models forced by land-use statistical data, which no trend or slight decline emissions early century. Most (82%) at some stages with large-scale commodity small-scale agriculture activities, particularly Africa Southeast Asia. We find that ~70% former lands converted 2001–2019 remained so 2020, confirming dominant role long-term pan-tropical reductions formerly forested landscapes. The acceleration high rate suggest existing strategies reduce not successful; this failure underscores importance monitoring deforestation trends following new pledges made Glasgow. Using datasets, study analyses removal over tropics during focusing fluxes trends, as well loss, both aspects studied previous work.

Language: Английский

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