Attributing changes in food insecurity to a changing climate DOI Creative Commons
Shouro Dasgupta, Elizabeth Robinson

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: March 18, 2022

It is generally accepted that climate change having a negative impact on food security. However, most of the literature variously focuses complex and many mechanisms linking stressors; links with production or productivity rather than security; future current effects. In contrast, we investigate extent to which changes in insecurity can be plausibly attributed change. We combine data for 83 countries from FAO experience scale (FIES) reanalysed ERA5-Land, use panel regression time-varying coefficients. This framework allows us estimate whether relationship between temperature anomaly changing over time. also control Human Development Index, drought measured by six-month Standardized Precipitation Index. Our empirical findings suggest every 1 [Formula: see text] anomaly, severe global has increased 1.4% (95% CI 1.3-1.47) 2014 but 1.64% 1.6-1.65) 2019. higher case moderate insecurity, increase resulting 1.58% 1.48-1.68) 2.14% 2.08-2.20) Thus, results show not only probability magnitude this counterfactual analysis suggests been responsible reversing some improvements security would otherwise have realised, highest Africa. both provides more evidence costs change, as such benefits mitigation, highlights importance targeted efficient policies reduce insecurity. These are likely need take into account local contexts, might include efforts crop yields, safety nets, behavioural programs promote household resilience.

Language: Английский

Treatment and Prevention of Heat-Related Illness DOI Open Access
Cecilia Sorensen, Jeremy Hess

New England Journal of Medicine, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 387(15), P. 1404 - 1413

Published: Sept. 28, 2022

A 71-year-old man with a history of coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, and schizoaffective disorder presents to the emergency department confusion.On day presentation, he was seen walking near his apartment complex in busy urban area later found collapsed outside building.The local heat index (accounting for temperature relative humidity) is 105°F (40.6°C).On arrival department, conscious but confused.His rate 130 beats per minute, blood pressure 100/70 mm Hg, respiratory 28 breaths rectal 40.5°C, oxygen saturation 90% while receiving at 3 liters minute through nasal cannula.He opens eyes voice can state name.He able move arms legs has no focal neurologic deficits.His skin hot dry touch.His medications include furosemide, risperidone, carvedilol.The patient lives alone top-floor without air conditioning.How should this heat-related illness be treated, how could it have been prevented?The Clinic l Problem C limate change causing global increase average temperatures increasing frequency, duration, intensity extreme events, 1 resulting unprecedented levels exposure.The past 7 years hottest on record, climate either caused or dramatically worsened 2 recent events Europe (2022), India 4 Pacific Northwest United States (2021). 5In 20 years, there 54% mortality among persons older than 65 age, 6 more one third all warm-season deaths are attributable change. 7On our current greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, warming 2°C over preindustrial expected by midcentury, most world encounter frequent coming decades 8 ; formerly once-in-10-years waves projected occur 5 times as frequently once-in-50-years almost 14 frequently. Elevated already health burden substantial economic loss. Humans thermoregulate behavioral autonomic mechanisms (e.g., vasodilation sweating) maintain core internal approximately 37°C.Metabolic activity generates an load, exogenous from Fossil-Fuel Pollution Climate Change

Language: Английский

Citations

97

Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions DOI Creative Commons
Marco Neira, Kamil Erguler, Hesam Ahmady‐Birgani

et al.

Environmental Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 216, P. 114537 - 114537

Published: Oct. 21, 2022

Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct indirect impacts on the status of any given region. Susceptibility modulated by biological, ecological socio-political such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, housing conditions, among other. In Eastern Mediterranean Middle East (EMME), known affect human include extreme heat, water shortages air pollution. Furthermore, epidemiology vector-borne diseases (VBDs) consequences population displacement are also influenced this To inform future policies for adaptation mitigation measures, based an extensive review available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities These generation more empirical evidence exposure-response functions involving specific outcomes, development appropriate methodologies evaluate physical psychological effects vulnerable populations, determining how alters determinants health, improving our understanding long-term exposure heat stress pollution, evaluating interactions between strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related expected impact propose that adaptation/mitigation must a regional scope, therefore require collaborative efforts EMME nations. Policy suggestions decisive region-wide decarbonisation, integration environmentally driven morbidity mortality data throughout region, advancing widespread use affordable technologies production management drinking non-traditional means, comprehensive strategies improve displaced fostering networks monitoring controlling spread infectious disease vectors.

Language: Английский

Citations

97

Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality DOI Creative Commons
Samuel Lüthi,

Christopher Fairless,

Erich Fischer

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Aug. 24, 2023

Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear much change will increase frequency and severity extreme summer seasons high impact In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries model large ensemble data identify probable past future highly impactful seasons. Across most locations, counts 1-in-100 year season in 2000 would be expected once every ten twenty years 2020. These return periods are projected further shorten under warming levels 1.5 °C 2 °C, where eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight urgent need strong mitigation reduce impacts lives.

Language: Английский

Citations

97

Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality DOI Creative Commons
Malcolm Mistry, Rochelle Schneider, Pierre Masselot

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: March 25, 2022

Abstract Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, yet to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related at a global scale. Here we the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions assess most recent generation datasets impact assessments evaluate comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show last ERA5 products generally compare well station observations, similar risk estimates. However, offers some indication lower tropical regions, likely underestimation heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent valid source variables epidemiological risk.

Language: Английский

Citations

94

Attributing changes in food insecurity to a changing climate DOI Creative Commons
Shouro Dasgupta, Elizabeth Robinson

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: March 18, 2022

It is generally accepted that climate change having a negative impact on food security. However, most of the literature variously focuses complex and many mechanisms linking stressors; links with production or productivity rather than security; future current effects. In contrast, we investigate extent to which changes in insecurity can be plausibly attributed change. We combine data for 83 countries from FAO experience scale (FIES) reanalysed ERA5-Land, use panel regression time-varying coefficients. This framework allows us estimate whether relationship between temperature anomaly changing over time. also control Human Development Index, drought measured by six-month Standardized Precipitation Index. Our empirical findings suggest every 1 [Formula: see text] anomaly, severe global has increased 1.4% (95% CI 1.3-1.47) 2014 but 1.64% 1.6-1.65) 2019. higher case moderate insecurity, increase resulting 1.58% 1.48-1.68) 2.14% 2.08-2.20) Thus, results show not only probability magnitude this counterfactual analysis suggests been responsible reversing some improvements security would otherwise have realised, highest Africa. both provides more evidence costs change, as such benefits mitigation, highlights importance targeted efficient policies reduce insecurity. These are likely need take into account local contexts, might include efforts crop yields, safety nets, behavioural programs promote household resilience.

Language: Английский

Citations

90