Progress in Disaster Science,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
22, P. 100326 - 100326
Published: April 1, 2024
Systemic
risks
derive
from
a
mix
of
economic,
technological,
socio
political,
and
ecological
factors.
Inherently
interdisciplinary,
the
study
systemic
risk
draws
on
financial
shock
models,
operations
research,
global
health,
foresight,
management,
military
strategy,
assessment,
sociology,
disaster
security
studies,
science
technology
existential
(X-risk)
research
as
well
AI
biorisk
communities.
The
requires
developing
transdisciplinary
tools
that
can
better
integrate
insights
drawn
these
disparate
fields
despite
high
uncertainty.
Nevertheless,
there
remains
no
overarching
framework
specifically
formulated
for
beyond
economics.
This
paper
reviews
this
body
work
aiming
to
begin
formulating
an
approach
integrated
leading
up
or
X-risks,
possibility
human
extinction.
Given
threaten
entire
societies
might
cascade
across
systems,
various
should
align
factors
vocabulary
combine
increase
humanity's
resilience.
Abstract
This
article
presents
a
new
interpretive
framework
for
understanding
the
implications
of
climate
change
migration,
and
reviews
reflects
on
existing
evidence
research
gaps
in
light
this
framework.
Most
climate‐migration
is
heavily
environment‐centric,
even
when
acknowledging
importance
contextual
or
intervening
factors.
In
contrast,
proposed
here
considers
five
different
pathways
through
which
affecting,
might
affect,
migration:
short‐term
shocks,
long‐term
climatic
related
changes,
environmental
“pull”
factors,
adaptation
mitigation
measures,
perceptions
narratives.
reviewing
relating
to
each
these
pathways,
paper
finds
among
other
things
that
shocks
may
simultaneously
increase
reduce
migration;
trends
provides
weak
basis
future
dynamics;
more
attention
needs
be
paid
three
by
researchers
policymakers
alike.
Overall,
associated
review
suggest
broader
migration
from
outlined
IPCC's
most
recent
assessment,
many
reviews.
categorized
under:
Climate
Development
Knowledge
Action
Frontiers in Climate,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
5
Published: Aug. 29, 2023
Understanding
and
forecasting
human
mobility
in
response
to
climatic
environmental
changes
has
become
a
subject
of
substantial
political,
societal,
academic
interest.
Quantitative
models
exploring
the
relationship
between
factors
migration
patterns
have
been
developed
since
early
2000s;
however,
different
produced
results
that
are
not
always
consistent
with
one
another
or
robust
enough
provide
actionable
insights
into
future
dynamics.
Here
we
examine
weaknesses
classical
methods
identify
next-generation
approaches
potential
close
existing
knowledge
gaps.
We
propose
six
priorities
for
climate
modeling:
(i)
use
non-linear
machine-learning
rather
than
linear
methods,
(ii)
prioritization
explaining
observed
data
testing
statistical
significance
predictors,
(iii)
consideration
relevant
impacts
temperature-
precipitation-based
metrics,
(iv)
examination
heterogeneities,
including
across
space
demographic
groups
aggregated
measures,
(v)
investigation
temporal
dynamics
essentially
spatial
patterns,
(vi)
better
calibration
data,
disaggregated
within-country
flows.
Improving
both
accommodate
high
complexity
context-specificity
will
be
crucial
establishing
scientific
consensus
on
historical
trends
projections
eluded
discipline
thus
far.
International Migration,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
61(5), P. 75 - 97
Published: March 8, 2023
Abstract
The
question
of
how
climatic
changes
and
hazards
affect
human
mobility
has
increasingly
gained
prominence
in
public
debates
over
the
past
decade.
Despite
improvements
scientific
understanding
subject
advancements
policy,
major
gaps
remain
addressing
humanitarian
socio‐economic
challenges
related
to
climate
migration.
In
this
perspectives
article,
we
argue
for
a
holistic
approach
closer
integration
science
policy
involving
diverse
stakeholders
process
knowledge
generation
implementation.
We
identify
five
key
characteristic
improving
science–policy
interface:
(i)
conflictual
political
contexts
securitization
migration,
(ii)
simplistic
narratives
framing
subject,
(iii)
uneven
production
dissemination
knowledge,
(iv)
limited
data
analytical
capacities
(v)
selective
topical
methodological
focus.
To
address
these
challenges,
there
is
need
more
bridging
initiatives
at
interface
that
integrate
disciplines,
approaches
stakeholders.
A
engagement
researchers
policymakers
form
multi‐stakeholder
exchanges,
capacity‐building
activities,
co‐development
co‐implementation
processes
integrative
assessments
can
help
bridge
gap
support
inclusive
development
comprehensive
policies.
Progress in Disaster Science,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
22, P. 100326 - 100326
Published: April 1, 2024
Systemic
risks
derive
from
a
mix
of
economic,
technological,
socio
political,
and
ecological
factors.
Inherently
interdisciplinary,
the
study
systemic
risk
draws
on
financial
shock
models,
operations
research,
global
health,
foresight,
management,
military
strategy,
assessment,
sociology,
disaster
security
studies,
science
technology
existential
(X-risk)
research
as
well
AI
biorisk
communities.
The
requires
developing
transdisciplinary
tools
that
can
better
integrate
insights
drawn
these
disparate
fields
despite
high
uncertainty.
Nevertheless,
there
remains
no
overarching
framework
specifically
formulated
for
beyond
economics.
This
paper
reviews
this
body
work
aiming
to
begin
formulating
an
approach
integrated
leading
up
or
X-risks,
possibility
human
extinction.
Given
threaten
entire
societies
might
cascade
across
systems,
various
should
align
factors
vocabulary
combine
increase
humanity's
resilience.
