Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: June 28, 2019

Abstract With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We investigate consequences attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either or intensification, analyse their impacts on markets biodiversity. find that both scenarios lead lower crop prices across world, even in regions where decreases. Cropland mostly affects hotspots Central South America, while threatens especially Sub-Saharan Africa, India China. Our results suggest will occur at costs predominantly developing tropical regions, Europe North America benefit from world market without putting own risk. By identifying potential future conflicts, we demonstrate conservation prioritization is needed balance with goals.

Language: Английский

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The Impact of Population Growth on Natural Resources and Farmers’ Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change in Low-Income Countries

Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 5(2), P. 271 - 283

Published: March 16, 2021

Language: Английский

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Global impacts of future urban expansion on terrestrial vertebrate diversity

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: March 25, 2022

Abstract Rapid urban expansion has profound impacts on global biodiversity through habitat conversion, degradation, fragmentation, and species extinction. However, how future will affect needs to be better understood. We contribute filling this knowledge gap by combining spatially explicit projections of under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with datasets terrestrial (amphibians, mammals, birds). Overall, lead 11–33 million hectares natural loss 2100 the SSP scenarios disproportionately cause large fragmentation. The within current key priority areas is projected higher (e.g., 37–44% in WWF’s Global 200) than average. Moreover, land conversion reduce local within-site richness 34% abundance 52% per 1 km grid cell, 7–9 may lost 10 cell. Our study suggests an urgent need develop a sustainable development pathway balance conservation.

Language: Английский

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A review of the interactions between biodiversity, agriculture, climate change, and international trade: research and policy priorities

One Earth, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 4(1), P. 88 - 101

Published: Jan. 1, 2021

Language: Английский

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Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Aug. 30, 2022

Abstract Using engineered wood for construction has been discussed climate change mitigation. It remains unclear where and in which way the additional demand wooden material shall be fulfilled. Here we assess global regional impacts of increased on land use associated CO 2 emissions until 2100 using an open-source system model. We show that if 90% new urban population would housed newly built mid-rise buildings with constructions, 106 Gt could saved by 2100. Forest plantations need to expand up 149 Mha harvests from unprotected natural forests increase. Our results indicate expansion timber is possible without major repercussions agricultural production. Strong governance careful planning are required ensure a sustainable transition cities even frontier biodiversity hotspots protected.

Language: Английский

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Earth transformed: detailed mapping of global human modification from 1990 to 2017

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 12(3), P. 1953 - 1972

Published: Sept. 2, 2020

Abstract. Data on the extent, patterns, and trends of human land use are critically important to support global national priorities for conservation sustainable development. To inform these issues, we created a series detailed datasets 1990, 2000, 2010, 2015 evaluate temporal spatial modification terrestrial lands (excluding Antarctica). We found that expansion increase in between 1990 resulted 1.6 M km2 natural lost. The percent change was 15.2 % or 0.6 annually – about 178 daily over 12 ha min−1. Worrisomely, rate loss has increased past 25 years. greatest from occurred Oceania, Asia, Europe, biomes with were mangroves, tropical subtropical moist broadleaf forests, dry forests. also contemporary (∼2017) estimate included additional stressors globally 14.6 18.5 (±0.0013) have been modified an area greater than Russia. Our novel (0.09 resolution), (1990–2015), recent (∼2017), comprehensive (11 stressors, 14 current), robust (using established framework incorporating classification errors parameter uncertainty), strongly validated. believe improved understanding profound transformation wrought by activities provide foundational data amount, rates landscape planning decision-making environmental mitigation, protection, restoration. generated this work available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3963013 (Theobald et al., 2020).

Language: Английский

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Functional connectivity of the world’s protected areas

Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 376(6597), P. 1101 - 1104

Published: June 2, 2022

Global policies call for connecting protected areas (PAs) to conserve the flow of animals and genes across changing landscapes, yet whether global PA networks currently support animal movement-and where connectivity conservation is most critical-remain largely unknown. In this study, we map functional world's terrestrial PAs quantify national through lens moving mammals. We find that mitigating human footprint may improve more than adding new PAs, although both strategies together maximize benefits. The globally important concentrated mammal movement remain unprotected, with 71% these overlapping biodiversity priority 6% occurring on land moderate high modification. Conservation restoration critical could safeguard while supporting other priorities.

Language: Английский

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Tropical forest loss enhanced by large-scale land acquisitions

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 13(7), P. 482 - 488

Published: June 22, 2020

Language: Английский

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Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 27(4), P. 602 - 617

Published: Jan. 18, 2021

Abstract Aim The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled forest cover increase and the consequent availability shelter prey. We investigated whether population density changes are related to relative probability occurrence three European carnivores: grey wolf ( Canis lupus ), Eurasian lynx Lynx ) brown bear Ursus arctos ). Location Europe, west 64° longitude. Methods fitted multi‐temporal species distribution models using >50,000 points with time series cover, landscape configuration, protected areas, hunting regulations covering 24‐year period (1992–2015). Within temporal window considered, we then predicted habitat suitability for throughout Europe. Results Between 1992 2015, increased Eastern Balkans, North‐West Iberian Peninsula Northern Scandinavia, but showed mixed trends Western Southern These were primarily associated increases decreases density, and, additionally, mosaics cropland natural vegetation. Main conclusions Recent appear have altered pattern whereas protection level did not play role. While projected largely match observed carnivore populations, found mismatches expansion wolves Central where factors included our may played dominant This suggests that carnivores’ co‐existence humans landscapes is limited availability, other such favourable tolerance policy.

Language: Английский

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Relative effects of land conversion and land-use intensity on terrestrial vertebrate diversity

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Feb. 1, 2022

Abstract Land-use has transformed ecosystems over three quarters of the terrestrial surface, with massive repercussions on biodiversity. intensity is known to contribute effects land-use biodiversity, but magnitude this contribution remains uncertain. Here, we use a modified countryside species-area model compute global account impending biodiversity loss caused by current patterns, explicitly addressing role based two sets indicators. We find that entails ~15% vertebrate species from average 5 × arcmin-landscape outside remaining wilderness areas and ~14% their native area-of-habitat, risk extinction for 556 individual species. Given large fraction land currently used under low intensity, its be substantial (~25%). While both indicators yield similar results, regional differences between them discuss data gaps. Our results support calls improved sustainable intensification strategies demand-side actions reduce trade-offs food security conservation.

Language: Английский

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