Determining the State of Activity of Transcrustal Magmatic Systems and Their Volcanoes

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 50(1), P. 231 - 259

Published: Jan. 21, 2022

Polygenetic volcanoes and calderas produce eruptions of a wide variety magnitudes, chemistries, recurrence times. Understanding the interplay between long- short-term deep shallow processes associated with accumulation transfer eruptible magma is essential for assessing potential future to occur estimating their magnitude, which remains one foremost challenges in Earth sciences. We review literature use existing data emblematic volcanic systems identify sets required define state activity plumbing systems. explore global eruptive records combination heat flux other geological geophysical determine evolutionary stage Volcanic Activity Index applicable any volcano that provides an estimate system erupt future, especially important long-quiescent volcanoes. ▪ Magmatic feed extend across Earth's crust are long-lived at depth ephemeral shallowest portions. revise update definitions active, quiescent, extinct based on physical proxies architecture, longevity, amount, distribution crust. propose Index, relative measure respect all world. New imaging monitoring strategies improve our ability detect lower middle magmatic forecast size.

Language: Английский

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Ergodic seismic precursors and transfer learning for short term eruption forecasting at data scarce volcanoes

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: Feb. 25, 2025

Abstract Seismic data recorded before volcanic eruptions provides important clues for forecasting. However, limited monitoring histories and infrequent restrict the available training forecasting models. We propose a transfer machine learning approach that identifies eruption precursors—signals consistently change eruptions—across multiple volcanoes. Using seismic from 41 at 24 volcanoes over 73 years, our forecasts unobserved (out-of-sample) Tested without target volcano, model demonstrated accuracy comparable to direct on exceeded benchmarks based amplitude. These results indicate precursors exhibit ergodicity, sharing common patterns allow observations one group of approximate behavior others. This addresses limitations individual sites useful tool support efforts volcano observatories, improving ability forecast mitigate risks.

Language: Английский

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Alteration‐Induced Volcano Instability at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Eastern Caribbean)

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 126(8)

Published: July 31, 2021

Abstract Volcanoes are unstable structures that deform laterally and frequently experience mass wasting events. Hydrothermal alteration is often invoked as a mechanism contributes significantly to volcano instability. We present study combines laboratory experiments, geophysical data, large‐scale numerical modeling better understand the influence of on stability, using La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Eastern Caribbean) case study. Laboratory experiments variably altered (advanced argillic alteration) blocks show uniaxial compressive strength, Young's modulus, cohesion decrease function increasing alteration, but internal friction angle does not change systematically. Simplified cross sections were prepared (a homogenous volcano, containing zone identified by recent electrical survey, with an artificially enlarged area mechanical properties assigned zones corresponding unaltered rock. Numerical performed these sections, hydro‐thermo‐mechanical code, (a) importance upscaled values in models (b) increases deformation collapse volume. Finally, we combined published muon tomography data our create 3D strength map, exposing low‐strength beneath southern flank coincident hydrothermal system. conclude decreases stability thus expedites spreading likelihood events associated volcanic hazards. its evolution, should therefore be monitored at active volcanoes worldwide.

Language: Английский

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Multitimescale Template Matching: Discovering Eruption Precursors across Diverse Volcanic Settings

Seismological Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 95(5), P. 2611 - 2621

Published: June 10, 2024

Abstract Volcanic eruptions pose significant risks, demanding precise monitoring for timely hazard mitigation. However, interpreting noisy seismic data eruptive precursors remains challenging. This study introduces a novel methodology that extends an earlier time-series feature engineering approach to include template matching against prior eruptions. We aim identify subtle signals within enhance our understanding of volcanic activity and future hazards. To do this, we analyze the continuous record at volcano elements regularly precede timescales over which these are observable. conduct tests across various time lengths, ranging from 1 60 days. For Copahue (Chile/Argentina), Pavlof (Alaska), Bezymianny (Russia), Whakaari (New Zealand) volcanoes, confirm statistically eruption precursors. In particular, named change quantiles (0.2–0.8), is related conditional dynamics surface acceleration volcano, emerges as key indicator 14-day timescales. research offers new methods real-time seismovolcanic monitoring, minimizing effects unknown, spurious noise, discerning recurrent patterns through matching. By providing deeper insights into pre-eruptive behavior, it may lead more effective reduction strategies, enhancing public safety around active volcanoes.

Language: Английский

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Phreatic and Hydrothermal Eruptions: From Overlooked to Looking Over

Bulletin of Volcanology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 84(6)

Published: June 1, 2022

Abstract Over the last decade, field investigations, laboratory experiments, geophysical exploration and petrological, geochemical numerical modelling have provided insight into mechanisms of phreatic hydrothermal eruptions. These eruptions are driven by sudden flashing ground- or water to steam strongly influenced interaction host rock system. Aquifers hosted in volcanic edifices, calderas rift environments can be primed for instability alteration processes affecting permeability and/or strength, while magmatic fluid injection(s), earthquakes other subtle triggers promote explosive failure. Gas emission, ground deformation seismicity may provide short- medium-term forerunner signals these eruptions, yet a definition universal precursors remains key challenge. Looking forward next 10 years, improved warning hazard assessment will require integration experimental data with models combining case studies, as well development new monitoring methods integrated machine learning approaches.

Language: Английский

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Velocity-dependent heat transfer controls temperature in fracture networks

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 23, 2023

Heat transfer between a fluid and the surrounding rock in subsurface is crucial process not only, but most obviously, geothermal systems. described by Newton's law of cooling, relating heat transferred to coefficient, specific surface area, temperature difference fluid. However, parameterizing coefficient fracture networks poses major challenge. Here we show that within network strongly heterogeneous laboratory single experiments can provide reasonable estimate dependence flow rate. We investigate distribution experimentally as well numerically analyze at individual fractures. Our results improve prediction temperatures engineered natural systems allow sustainable management design reservoirs considering role

Language: Английский

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A quest for unrest in multiparameter observations at Whakaari/White Island volcano, New Zealand 2007–2018

Earth Planets and Space, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 73(1)

Published: Oct. 21, 2021

Abstract The Whakaari/White Island volcano, located ~ 50 km off the east coast of North in New Zealand, has experienced sequences quiescence, unrest, magmatic and phreatic eruptions over last decades. For 15 years, seismic data have been continuously archived providing potential insight into this frequently active volcano. Here we take advantage unusually long time series to retrospectively process using ambient noise tremor-based methodologies. We investigate (RSAM) frequency (Power Spectral Density) evolution volcanic tremor, then estimate changes shallow subsurface Displacement Seismic Amplitude Ratio (DSAR), relative velocity (dv/v) decorrelation, Luni-Seismic Correlation (LSC). By combining our new set observations with long-term earthquakes, deformation, visual geochemistry, review activity between 2007 end 2018. Our analysis reveals existence distinct patterns related volcano periods calm followed by cycles pressurization eruptions. finally put these results wider context forecasting continuous records.

Language: Английский

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Thermal and seismic precursors to the explosive eruption at La Soufrière Volcano, St. Vincent in April 2021

Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 592, P. 117621 - 117621

Published: May 31, 2022

High temporal resolution, geostationary, thermal infrared data from the Advanced Baseline Imager combined with seismic of La Soufrière Volcano, St. Vincent provide empirical insights into volcanic processes and mechanisms that occurred November 2020 until explosive phase in April 2021. An overall increase intensity output seismicity are observed during effusive phase; however, increased ∼20 days earlier than seismicity. During phase, daily radiant heat flux 0.01 to >100 MW 1 647 events. The climax both records eruptions on 9-14, Strong correlations between these datasets weeks leading eruptions. A significant (∼5 day) decrease activity is ∼12 prior which could reveal a hiatus magma migration eruption. Periods decoupling also attributed different unrest. Occurrences high low may indicate deeper magmatic where no surface response be detected, for example. Recognizing correlations, or lack thereof, high-temporal resolution expands potential subsurface by providing second, complementary vantage. Such seismic-thermal analysis can improve our community's capability monitor evaluate new Indeed, extensive networks (local regional) multiple geostationary weather satellites now near global coverage. similar work at feasible, should become routine, other volcanoes worldwide using high-temporal, ground orbital available. 2022 eruption Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcano, Tonga, illustrates important cadence subsequent even extremely remote volcanoes.

Language: Английский

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The Transition from MODIS to VIIRS for Global Volcano Thermal Monitoring

Sensors, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 22(5), P. 1713 - 1713

Published: Feb. 22, 2022

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is one of the most-used sensors for monitoring volcanoes and has been providing time series Volcanic Radiative Power (VRP) on a global scale two decades now. In this work, we analyzed data provided by Visible Infrared Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) using Middle Observation Activity (MIROVA) algorithm, originally developed to analyze MODIS data. resulting VRP compared with both MIROVAMODIS as well Fire (FRP), distributed Information Resource Management System (FIRMS). analysis 9 active reveals that VIIRS MIROVA algorithm allows detecting ~60% more alerts than MODIS, due greater number overpasses (+30%) improved quality radiance Furthermore, comparison nighttime FIRMS database indicates effectiveness in low-intensity (<10 MW) thermal anomalies (up 90% FIRMS). These results confirm great potential complement, replace improve capabilities volcano monitoring, because future end Terra Aqua Earth-observing satellite mission National Aeronautics Space Administration’s (NASA).

Language: Английский

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Volcanic Early Warning Using Shannon Entropy: Multiple Cases of Study

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 128(6)

Published: June 1, 2023

Abstract The search for pre‐eruptive observables that can be used short‐term volcanic forecast remains a scientific challenge. Pre‐eruptive patterns in seismic data are usually identified by analyzing catalogs (e.g., the number and types of recorded events), evolution energy, or changes tensional state medium as consequence volume volcano. However, although successful predictions have been achieved, there is still no generally valid model suitable large range eruptive scenarios. In this study, we evaluate potential use Shannon entropy eruption forecasting extracted from signals at five well studied volcanoes (Etna, Mount St. Helens, Kilauea, Augustine, Bezymianny). We temporal monitored precursors. quantified decay prior to eruptions, noting appear between 4 days 12 hr before. When combined with other features (i.e., kurtosis, frequency index), elaborate physical models according occurring processes. Our results show variation confident monitoring tool.

Language: Английский

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