Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools DOI Creative Commons
Tucker J. Furniss, Nicholas A. Povak, Paul F. Hessburg

et al.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Nov. 23, 2023

Introduction Forest landscapes offer resources and ecosystem services that are vital to the social, economic, cultural well-being of human communities, but managing for these provisions can require socially ecologically relevant trade-offs. We designed a spatial decision support model reveal trade-offs synergies between in large eastern Cascade Mountain landscape Washington State, USA. Methods used process-based forest (LANDIS-II) hydrology (DHSVM) models compare outcomes associated with 100 years simulated wildfire dynamics two management scenarios, Wildfire only + Treatments . then examined strength distribution potential treatment effects trends set over simulation period. Results found area burned increased time, some impacts could be mitigated by adaptation treatments. Treatment benefits were not limited treated areas. Interestingly, we observed neighborhood where fire spread severity reduced patches adjacent as well, creating among resource services. Ordinations provided further evidence main kinds outcomes. Positive ecological treatments greatest upper elevation moist cold forests, while positive communities aligned drier, low- mid-elevation forests closer wildland urban interface. Discussion Our results contribute improved understanding tradeoffs linked restoration efforts fire-prone inform aimed at rebuilding resilient, climate-adapted landscapes.

Language: Английский

Investigation of the long-term supply–demand relationships of ecosystem services at multiple scales under SSP–RCP scenarios to promote ecological sustainability in China's largest city cluster DOI

Zhouyangfan Lu,

Wei Li,

Rongwu Yue

et al.

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 104, P. 105295 - 105295

Published: Feb. 23, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

26
Climate change determines the sign of productivity trends in US forests DOI Creative Commons
J. Aaron Hogan, Grant M. Domke, Kai Zhu

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(4)

Published: Jan. 16, 2024

Forests are integral to the global land carbon sink, which has sequestered ~30% of anthropogenic emissions over recent decades. The persistence this sink depends on balance positive drivers that increase ecosystem storage-e.g., CO

Language: Английский

Citations

16
A global synthesis and conceptualization of the magnitude and duration of soil carbon losses in response to forest disturbances DOI Creative Commons
Mathias Mayer, Andri Baltensweiler, Jason James

et al.

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 33(1), P. 141 - 150

Published: Oct. 24, 2023

Forest disturbances are increasing around the globe due to changes in climate and management, deteriorating forests' carbon sink strength. Estimates of global forest budgets account for losses plant biomass but often neglect effects on soil organic (SOC). Here, we aimed quantify conceptualize SOC response different disturbance agents a scale.

Language: Английский

Citations

18
Assessing the impact of pine wilt disease on aboveground carbon storage in planted Pinus massoniana Lamb. forests via remote sensing DOI
Xuanye Wen, Yu Hong, Jinghui Zhong

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 914, P. 169906 - 169906

Published: Jan. 5, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Trends, turning points, and driving forces of desertification in global arid land based on the segmental trend method and SHAP model DOI Creative Commons
Xiaoyu Meng, Shengyu Li, Khaulenbek Akhmadi

et al.

GIScience & Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 61(1)

Published: June 18, 2024

Desertification is a form of land degradation observed in arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid ecosystems. Assessing the global trends drivers desertification arid crucial for developing effective restoration policies mitigating desertification. We aimed to evaluate segmental using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer images from 2000 2022. By constructing robust MSAVI-Albedo Distance Index (DDI), we assessed segmented development characteristics on Google Earth Engine. Additionally, employed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) model machine learning methods analyze individual interactive driving mechanisms The results indicated an overall reduction desertification, with approximately 23.21 million km2 (39% region area) exhibiting negative DDI. Approximately 31% area showed DDI −0.002/y. Precipitation was consistently primary factor influencing average SHAP value 11.42. Secondary factors included potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture, vapor pressure differences. Notably, coupling between precipitation moisture exhibited most significant impact process, values 3.28 5.06 before after turning point, respectively. These findings provide new insights into scale offer valuable scientific support promoting prevention control measures.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Unveiling spatiotemporal tree cover patterns in China: The first 30 m annual tree cover mapping from 1985 to 2023 DOI
Yaotong Cai, Xiaocong Xu, Peng Zhu

et al.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 216, P. 240 - 258

Published: Aug. 13, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Hurricanes pose a substantial risk to New England forest carbon stocks DOI
Shersingh Joseph Tumber‐Dávila, T. Lucey, Emery R. Boose

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(4)

Published: April 1, 2024

Abstract Nature‐based climate solutions (NCS) are championed as a primary tool to mitigate change, especially in forested regions capable of storing and sequestering vast amounts carbon. New England is one the most heavily United States (>75% by land area), forest carbon significant component mitigation policies. Large infrequent disturbances, such hurricanes, major source uncertainty risk for policies relying on mitigation, change projected alter intensity extent hurricanes. To date, research into disturbance impacts stocks has focused fire. Here, we show that single hurricane region can down between 121 250 MMTCO 2 e or 4.6%–9.4% total aboveground carbon, much greater than sequestered annually England's forests (16 year −1 ). However, emissions from hurricanes not instantaneous; it takes approximately 19 years downed become net emission 100 90% be emitted. Reconstructing with HURRECON EXPOS models across range historical wind speeds, find an 8% 16% increase speeds leads 10.7‐ 24.8‐fold high‐severity damaged areas (widespread tree mortality). Increased speed also unprecedented geographical shifts damage, both inland northward, traditionally less affected Given emit equivalent 10+ England, status these durable sink uncertain. Understanding risks disturbances necessary decision‐makers NCS.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Forest carbon stocks increase with higher dominance of ectomycorrhizal trees in high latitude forests DOI Creative Commons
Guoyong Yan,

Chunnan Fan,

Jun Zheng

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: July 16, 2024

Understanding the mechanisms controlling forest carbon accumulation is crucial for predicting and mitigating future climate change. Yet, it remains unclear whether dominance of ectomycorrhizal (EcM) trees influences entire forests. In this study, we analyzed inventory data from over 4000 plots across Northeast China. We find that EcM tree consistently exerts a positive effect on tree, soil, stocks. Moreover, observe these effects are more pronounced during unfavorable conditions, at lower species richness, early successional stages. This underscores potential increasing native not only to enhance stocks but also bolster resilience against change in high-latitude Here show managers can make informed decisions optimize by considering various factors such as mycorrhizal types, climate, stages, richness.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Current forest carbon offset buffer pools do not adequately insure against disturbance-driven carbon losses DOI
William R. L. Anderegg, Anna T. Trugman, German Vargas G.

et al.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 31, 2024

Abstract Nature-based climate solutions in Earth’s forests could strengthen the land carbon sink and contribute to mitigation, but must adequately account for risks durability of storage. Forest offset protocols use a ‘buffer pool’ insure against disturbance that may compromise durability. However, current buffer pool tools allocations are not based on existing scientific data or models. Here, we tropical forest stand biomass model an extensive set long-term plots test whether pools adequate observed regimes. We find age regime both influence necessary sizes. In vast majority scenarios, substantially smaller than required by cycle science. Buffer estimates urgently need be updated rigorous, open datasets nature-based succeed. Plain Language Summary Forests mitigation through conservation restoration activities. Carbon offsets widespread pathway fund these forests, face changing climate. Current have risk different regimes, contributions been tested with regimes rigorous using plot generally most Our results highlight better datasets, models, needed protocols. Key points substantial rising disturbance, which is currently evidence reveal do

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Insights Into Nature‐Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability DOI Creative Commons
Bailey Murphy, Christine R. Rollinson, Michael C. Dietze

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

Abstract Successful implementation of forest management as a nature‐based climate solution is dependent on the durability management‐induced changes in carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks ongoing change, much remains unknown regarding how will impact stability, or interactions with might shift response to across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used process‐based model simulate multidecadal projections dynamics climate. Simulations were conducted gradients type, edaphic factors, intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 RCP8.5). This allowed for quantification shifts role modulating that response, where ecosystem characterized resilience temporal net primary production, aboveground biomass, soil carbon. Our results indicate structure primarily shaped by management, but same strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due regional change. We found can be increase minimize release stored reducing mortality, also highlight dependency

Language: Английский

Citations

0