Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread DOI Creative Commons
Philipp Dönges, Joël Wagner, Sebastián Contreras

et al.

Frontiers in Physics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Feb. 15, 2022

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior, building a complex interplay between risk perception, disease spread. We studied how behavior vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. analyzed different levels of mandatory NPIs determine individuals use their leeway actions. If too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity mortality before react; if they strong, one expects rebound wave once restrictions lifted, challenging transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate give time room adapt level caution, mitigating spread effectively. When with rates, this also offers robust way limit impacts Omicron variant concern. Altogether, our work highlights importance appropriate maximise individual actions in pandemic control.

Language: Английский

A survey of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across 23 countries in 2022 DOI Open Access
Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Katarzyna Wyka, Trenton M. White

et al.

Nature Medicine, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(2), P. 366 - 375

Published: Jan. 9, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

292
A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat DOI Creative Commons
Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Diana Romero, Christopher J. Kopka

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 611(7935), P. 332 - 345

Published: Nov. 3, 2022

Abstract Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic behavioural factors continue to undercut the response COVID-19 pandemic 1,2 . Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government other experts in from 112 countries territories recommend specific actions end persistent global threat public health. The developed set 41 consensus statements 57 recommendations governments, health systems, industry key stakeholders across six domains: communication; systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment care; inequities. In wake nearly three years fragmented national responses, it is instructive note that highest-ranked call for adoption whole-of-society whole-of-government approaches 1 , while maintaining proven prevention measures using vaccines-plus approach 2 employs range financial support complement vaccination. Other with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments improve communication, rebuild trust engage communities 3 management responses. findings which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points unanimous agreement, well >5% disagreement, provide social policy address inadequacies help bring an end.

Language: Английский

Citations

177
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation DOI Creative Commons
Emil N. Iftekhar, Viola Priesemann, Rudi Balling

et al.

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8, P. 100185 - 100185

Published: July 30, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

120
Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories DOI Creative Commons
Yong Ge, Wenbin Zhang, Xilin Wu

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: June 3, 2022

Abstract Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built Bayesian inference model to assess changing effect reducing transmission, based large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, climate factors in Europe from August 2020 October 2021. We found that (1) combined resulted 53% (95% confidence interval: 42–62%) reduction reproduction number by 2021, whereas reduced transmission 35% 38%, respectively; (2) compared with change NPI was less sensitive emerging variants; (3) relative declined 12% May 2021 due lower stringency introduction strategies. Our results demonstrate were complementary an effort reduce relaxation might depend rates, control targets, vaccine effectiveness concerning extant variants.

Language: Английский

Citations

94
Patterns of compliance with COVID-19 preventive behaviours: a latent class analysis of 20 000 UK adults DOI Creative Commons
Liam Wright, Andrew Steptoe, Daisy Fancourt

et al.

Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 76(3), P. 247 - 253

Published: Sept. 14, 2021

Background Governments have implemented a range of measures to tackle COVID-19, primarily focusing on changing citizens’ behaviours in order lower the transmission virus. Few studies looked at patterns compliance with different within individuals: whether people comply all or selectively choose some but not others. Such research is important for designing interventions increase compliance. Methods We used cross-sectional data from 20 947 UK adults COVID-19 Social Study collected 17 November 23 December 2020. Self-report was assessed six behaviours: mask wearing, hand washing, indoor household mixing, outdoor social distancing and other guidelines. Patterns behaviour were identified using latent class analysis, multinomial logistic regression assess demographic, socioeconomic personality predictors patterns. Results selected four-latent solution. Most individuals reported similar levels across measures. High level modal response. Lower self-reported related young age, high risk-taking behaviour, low confidence government empathy, among factors. Looking individual behaviours, wearing had highest while relatively low. Conclusion suggest that guidelines, rather than Strategies should focus increasing general motivations alongside specifically encouraging distancing.

Language: Английский

Citations

75
Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves DOI Creative Commons
Simon Bauer, Sebastián Contreras, Jonas Dehning

et al.

PLoS Computational Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 17(9), P. e1009288 - e1009288

Published: Sept. 2, 2021

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological data, we quantified rate (relative progress) at which countries can non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting (accepting high mortality morbidity) reducing case numbers level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate local spreading events. In general, age-dependent roll-out implies transient decrease more than ten years in average age ICU patients deceased. The pace determines speed restrictions; Taking European Union (EU) an example case, all considered allow steadily increasing contacts starting May 2021 relaxing by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact will remain necessary. vaccine uptake prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts long-term success campaigns strongly demographics. addition, highlight need preventive measures reduce contagion school settings throughout year children might be drivers because them Strategies that maintain low numbers, instead ones, infections deaths factors eleven five, respectively. policies with significantly benefit vaccination, overall reduction susceptibility diminish viral spread. Keeping is safest it considerably reduces morbidity better preparedness against emerging escape or contagious virus variants while still allowing higher (freedom) progressing vaccinations.

Language: Английский

Citations

67
Pandemic fatigue fueled political discontent during the COVID-19 pandemic DOI Creative Commons
Frederik Juhl Jørgensen, Alexander Bor,

Magnus Storm Rasmussen

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 119(48)

Published: Nov. 21, 2022

Health authorities have highlighted “pandemic fatigue” as a psychological consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and warned that “fatigue” could demotivate compliance with health-related policies mandates. Yet, fatigue from following may consequences far beyond health domain. Theories social sciences raised real perceived costs can also drive sentiments discontent entire political establishment. Integrating theories sciences, we ask how (i.e., inability to “keep up” restrictions) developed over whether it fueled discontent. Utilizing longitudinal panel surveys collected September 2020 July 2021 in eight Western countries (N = 49,116), analyze: 1) time at country level, 2) associations between discontent, 3) effect on using data. Pandemic significantly increased severity interventions but decreased deaths. When triggered, elicited broad range including protest support conspiratorial thinking. The results demonstrate significant societal impact domain raise concerns about stability democratic societies, which were already strained by strife prior pandemic.

Language: Английский

Citations

67
Impacts of worldwide individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission across waves and space DOI Creative Commons
Yong Ge, Wenbin Zhang, Haiyan Liu

et al.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 106, P. 102649 - 102649

Published: Dec. 12, 2021

Governments worldwide have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. However, effect of these individual NPI measures across space and time has yet be sufficiently assessed, especially with increase policy fatigue urge for relaxation in vaccination era. Using decay ratio suppression infections multi-source big data, we investigated changing performance different NPIs waves from global regional levels (in 133 countries) national subnational United States America [USA]) scales before implementation mass vaccination. The synergistic effectiveness all reducing declined along waves, 95.4% first wave 56.0% third recently at level similarly 83.3% 58.7% USA level, while it had fluctuating on scales. Regardless geographical scale, gathering restrictions facial coverings played significant roles epidemic mitigation vaccine rollout. Our findings important implications continued tailoring strategies, together vaccination, future caused by new variants, other emerging respiratory infectious diseases.

Language: Английский

Citations

62
Investigating the effectiveness of COVID-19 pandemic countermeasures on the use of public transport: A case study of The Netherlands DOI Creative Commons
Chao Chen, Tao Feng,

Xiaoning Gu

et al.

Transport Policy, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 117, P. 98 - 107

Published: Jan. 15, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

56
Youth physical activity and the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review DOI Creative Commons
Bridgette Do, Chelsey Kirkland, Gina M. Besenyi

et al.

Preventive Medicine Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 29, P. 101959 - 101959

Published: Aug. 22, 2022

The purpose of the systematic review was to identify, evaluate, and synthesize evidence from available published literature examining impact coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on youth physical activity (PA). A conducted for years 2020-2021. Published articles were searched in eight databases. Inclusion criteria included: availability full-text, written English language, reported quantitative or qualitative results original secondary data PA COVID-19 related factors among (ages 5-17 years). standard quality assessment tool assessed risk bias included articles. search retrieved 2,899 with 51 ultimately meeting inclusion criteria. majority (65 %) investigated change before during pandemic. Most indicated an overall decrease levels differences observed sub-populations (e.g., age, sex gender), type, location. Findings suggest pandemic-related closures hindered participation due a high reliance school- sport-based PA. Programmatic strategies breaks, active curriculum, free online activities/lessons) should include aligning intervention measures geared towards evolving ongoing promotion based latest findings.

Language: Английский

Citations

48