Stabilization through self-coupling in networks of small-world and scale-free topology DOI Creative Commons
Jannik Luboeinski,

Luis Claro,

Andrés Pomi

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Jan. 19, 2023

Mechanisms that ensure the stability of dynamical systems are vital importance, in particular our globalized and increasingly interconnected world. The so-called connectivity-stability dilemma denotes theoretical finding increased connectivity between components a large system drastically reduces its stability. This result has promoted controversies within ecology other fields biology, especially, because organisms as well ecosystems constitute both highly connected stable. Hence, it been major challenge to find ways stabilize complex while preserving high at same time. Investigating networks exhibit small-world or scale-free topology is interest, since these topologies have found many different types real-world networks. Here, we use an approach recurrent by increasing average self-coupling strength units network. For topologies, there sharp transition from instability asymptotic Then, most importantly, needed increases much slower than size. It appears qualitative shape this relationship for networks, can require higher magnitudes self-coupling. We further explore stabilization with Kronecker-Leskovec topology. Finally, argue findings, through small unit self-regulation, practical importance diverse systems.

Language: Английский

Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout DOI Creative Commons
João Viana, Christiaan H. van Dorp, Ana Nunes

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: June 16, 2021

There is a consensus that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will ultimately end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it not clear when and which control measures can be relaxed during rollout of programmes. We investigate relaxation scenarios using an age-structured transmission model has been fitted to age-specific seroprevalence data, hospital admissions, projected coverage for Portugal. Our analyses suggest pressing need restart socioeconomic activities could lead new pandemic waves, substantial efforts prove necessary throughout 2021. Using knowledge on introduced in 2020, we anticipate relaxing completely or extent as autumn 2020 launch wave starting April Additional waves prevented altogether if are summer step-wise manner discuss at point would achieved each scenario.

Language: Английский

Citations

128
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation DOI Creative Commons
Emil N. Iftekhar, Viola Priesemann, Rudi Balling

et al.

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8, P. 100185 - 100185

Published: July 30, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

120
Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories DOI Creative Commons
Yong Ge, Wenbin Zhang, Xilin Wu

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: June 3, 2022

Abstract Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches for mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, real-world impact of NPIs versus vaccination, or a combination both, on COVID-19 remains uncertain. To address this, we built Bayesian inference model to assess changing effect reducing transmission, based large-scale dataset including epidemiological parameters, virus variants, vaccines, climate factors in Europe from August 2020 October 2021. We found that (1) combined resulted 53% (95% confidence interval: 42–62%) reduction reproduction number by 2021, whereas reduced transmission 35% 38%, respectively; (2) compared with change NPI was less sensitive emerging variants; (3) relative declined 12% May 2021 due lower stringency introduction strategies. Our results demonstrate were complementary an effort reduce relaxation might depend rates, control targets, vaccine effectiveness concerning extant variants.

Language: Английский

Citations

94
Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes DOI Creative Commons
Tyll Krueger, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Marcin Bodych

et al.

Communications Medicine, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 2(1)

Published: March 3, 2022

The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for VP holders than rest population, imperfect effectiveness against infection, rates (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction never-vaccinated, increased transmissibility variant. Some predicted scenarios realistic parameter values yield new infection waves within two years, high daily case numbers in endemic state, even without introducing VPs granting more freedom to holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While could initially be allowed freedom, lack full vaccine will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.

Language: Английский

Citations

46
COVID-19 Government restriction policy, COVID-19 vaccination and stock markets: Evidence from a global perspective DOI Open Access
Xiaoling Yu, Kaitian Xiao

Finance research letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 53, P. 103669 - 103669

Published: Jan. 25, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

27
Risking further COVID-19 waves despite vaccination DOI Creative Commons
Sebastián Contreras, Viola Priesemann

The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 21(6), P. 745 - 746

Published: March 20, 2021

The sudden outbreak and global spread of COVID-19 took the world by surprise. Policy makers started to work side-by-side with theoreticians, as there were still are many unknowns, especially regarding properties virus variants, subsequent future development pandemic. In times uncertainty, mathematical models have shed light on evolution pandemic best current scientific knowledge. Lancet Infectious Diseases, Sam Moore colleagues1Moore S Hill EM Tildesley MJ Dyson L Keeling Vaccination non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a modelling study.Lancet Infect Dis. 2021; (published online March 18.)https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00143-2Summary Full Text PDF Scopus (357) Google Scholar present model explore effects vaccination potential danger lifting restrictions too early in UK. With progressing, we all want be lifted soon possible. Lifting them only slowly is like being forced eat chocolate cake slowly, after not having any months. So why should one cautious? It intuitively clear that if then another wave might strike affect those who yet been vaccinated. Furthermore, even some individuals recently vaccinated immunised time thus remain partly susceptible. Risking health lives such would unethical. Can colleagues tell us when precisely can cake? Unfortunately, no. There unknown factors transmission dynamics SARS-CoV-2 during campaign thereafter. Including uncertainties at heart designing good epidemiological model. found level vaccine-induced protection against infection crucial timing effect further waves viral spread. they quantify how low vaccine uptake, together (NPIs), will induce hospitalisations deaths, most which could prevented. They also show best-case scenario high uptake (85% efficacy severe symptoms) gradual relaxation NPIs allowed without deaths surging over 500 per day. did explicitly include variants escape immune response (either post-infection or induced vaccines).1Moore This approach does change their general findings straightforward discuss. Escape variants2Plante A Mitchell BM Plante KS Debbink K Weaver SC Menachery VD variant gambit: COVID's next move.Cell Host Microbe. 1.)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chom.2021.02.020Summary PubMed (224) devastating effect; worst, force start programme from scratch, including necessity re-enforce strong restrictions. If surge new infections, hit already overburdened health-care systems, little capacity react. Hence, avoiding critical mitigate impact variants. Is it necessary, then, either almost endless bring own detrimental economic effects, accept wave? We propose midpoint: eating sufficiently slowly. pace allows increasingly more contact risking infections.3Bauer Contreras Dehning J et al.Relaxing increases freedom guards Europe.https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.06228Date: 10, 2021Date accessed: 15, 2021Google Alternatively, substantial need installed later point hospitals again. entail taking away again bite. fact, progress releasing restrictions, whether case numbers, mainly determined vaccination, lower higher levels advantage clear: less so-called long COVID-19, quarantine, fewer reducing societies economies.4Priesemann V Brinkmann MM Ciesek al.Calling pan-European commitment rapid sustained reduction infections.Lancet. 2020; 397: 92-93Summary (59) Finally, infections mean scope risk major setback strategy, so this eventuality crucial. Overall compliance has decreased worldwide because behavioural fatigue.5Petherick Goldszmidt RG Andrade EB Furst R Pott Wood assessment pandemic-policy fatigue.SSRN. Feb 1.) (preprint).https://ssrn.com/abstract=3774252Crossref Despite fatigue, governments researchers now than ever stress advantages keeping numbers low,5Petherick Scholar, 6Contreras Loidolt M al.The challenges containing via test-trace-and-isolate.Nat Commun. 12: 378Crossref (104) benefits responsibility population protected, but largely expected keep economies going. As countries much slower vaccinating populations UK, country support fight its national low. achieved, easier maintain numbers. opportunity seized. every country, decide use vaccines wisely prevent SARS-CoV-2. Waves offered unprotected people countries, lead Thus, let enjoy cake, responsibly. declare no competing interests. studyFor scenarios investigated, our predictions highlight risks associated NPIs. Although novel offer exit strategy pandemic, success highly contingent precise both carefully monitored. Full-Text Open Access

Language: Английский

Citations

54
Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread DOI Creative Commons
Philipp Dönges, Joël Wagner, Sebastián Contreras

et al.

Frontiers in Physics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Feb. 15, 2022

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior, building a complex interplay between risk perception, disease spread. We studied how behavior vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. analyzed different levels of mandatory NPIs determine individuals use their leeway actions. If too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity mortality before react; if they strong, one expects rebound wave once restrictions lifted, challenging transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate give time room adapt level caution, mitigating spread effectively. When with rates, this also offers robust way limit impacts Omicron variant concern. Altogether, our work highlights importance appropriate maximise individual actions in pandemic control.

Language: Английский

Citations

31
Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns DOI Creative Commons
Sebastián Contreras, Jonas Dehning, Sebastian Mohr

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 7(41)

Published: Oct. 8, 2021

Test-trace-and-isolate and moderate contact restrictions offer sustainable exit strategies complementary to vaccination.

Language: Английский

Citations

37
The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy DOI Creative Commons
Thomas Czypionka, Emil N. Iftekhar, Barbara Prainsack

et al.

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13, P. 100294 - 100294

Published: Jan. 2, 2022

In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough avoid resurgence virus. Public health strategies for autumn winter 2021 have ranged from aiming at low incidence by re-introducing accepting levels. However, such almost certainly lead very consequences that they seek avoid: restrictions harm people economies. At incidence, important pandemic containment measure 'test-trace-isolate-support' becomes inefficient. point, spread SARS-CoV-2 its numerous harmful can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue all need pursue a strategy in coordinated manner. Such an endeavour successful if it is built on open communication trust.

Language: Английский

Citations

28
COVID-19 vaccine perceptions in the initial phases of US vaccine roll-out: an observational study on reddit DOI Creative Commons
Navin Kumar,

Isabel Corpus,

Meher Hans

et al.

BMC Public Health, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 22(1)

Published: March 7, 2022

Open online forums like Reddit provide an opportunity to quantitatively examine COVID-19 vaccine perceptions early in the timeline. We misinformation on following scientific announcements, initial phases of

Language: Английский

Citations

25