Forecasting: theory and practice

International Journal of Forecasting, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 38(3), P. 705 - 871

Published: Jan. 20, 2022

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds future is both exciting challenging, with individuals organisations seeking to minimise risks maximise utilities. large number forecasting applications calls for a diverse set methods tackle real-life challenges. This article provides non-systematic review theory practice forecasting. We provide an overview wide range theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, approaches prepare, produce, organise, evaluate forecasts. then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in variety contexts. do not claim this exhaustive list applications. However, we wish our encyclopedic presentation will offer point reference rich work undertaken over last decades, some key insights practice. Given its nature, intended mode reading non-linear. cross-references allow readers navigate through various topics. complement covered by lists free or open-source software implementations publicly-available databases.

Language: Английский

---

Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 25(7), P. 3897 - 3935

Published: July 7, 2021

Abstract. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind or storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these are evolving likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under influence multiple drivers changes in climate, land cover, other human factors. Methods analysing hydroclimatic advanced considerably recent decades. Here we provide a review drivers, metrics, methods detection, attribution, management, projection nonstationary extremes. We discuss issues uncertainty associated with approaches (e.g. arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, incomplete representation sources modelling frameworks), examine empirical simulation-based frameworks analysis extremes, identify gaps future research.

Language: Английский

---

Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(5), P. 340 - 357

Published: April 13, 2021

Language: Английский

---

Business risk and the emergence of climate analytics

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(2), P. 87 - 94

Published: Feb. 1, 2021

Language: Английский

---

Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Feb. 7, 2022

The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate weakening westerlies in response projected loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 3 times too weak models, suggesting real-world lies towards higher end model simulations. Still, modelled weak: North Atlantic Oscillation similar magnitude and offsets increased greenhouse gases, would only account for around 10% variations individual years. further find relationships between atmospheric circulation have weakened recently are no longer inconsistent those models.

Language: Английский

---

How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 043002 - 043002

Published: Jan. 14, 2021

Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns midlatitudes that affect billions people. Recent studies these Arctic/midlatitude linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source uncertainty arises from chaotic nature atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by rapidly warming contributes to events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature pressure gradients. But internal shifts atmospheric dynamics—the variability location, strength, character jet stream, blocking, stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure direct causes effects. It is important understand associated processes differentiate Arctic-forced natural variability. For example early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing teleconnections between North Atlantic/Arctic central Asia, downstream East Asia. Reduced sea ice Chukchi Sea can amplify ridging high near Alaska, influencing across America. In late winter southward displacement SPV, coupled troposphere, leads extremes Eurasia Combined tropical conditions modulate SPV. Observational evidence for linkages continues accumulate, along with understanding connections pre-existing climate states. Relative variability, loss alone has played secondary role linkages; full influence amplification remains uncertain.

Language: Английский

---

Projections of precipitation over China based on CMIP6 models

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 35(4), P. 831 - 848

Published: Jan. 3, 2021

Language: Английский

---

WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 103(4), P. E1117 - E1129

Published: April 1, 2022

Abstract As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide possible future hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer potential inform current adaptation increase resilience by filling important gap between seasonal forecasts projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this in 2017 established WMO Lead Centre for Annual Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened “Lead Centre” below), which annually provides large multimodel ensemble of covering next 5 years. This international collaboration produces prediction that is more skillful useful than any single center can achieve. One main outputs Global Update (GADCU), consensus forecast based these predictions. update includes maps showing key variables, discussion skill, indices such global mean near-surface temperature Atlantic multidecadal variability. it also estimates probability exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels at least 1 year years, helps policy-makers understand how closely world approaching goal Paris Agreement. paper, written authors GADCU, introduces presents its outputs, briefly discusses role providing vital information society now future.

Language: Английский

---

Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 27(9), P. 1865 - 1889

Published: May 15, 2023

Abstract. Hybrid hydroclimatic forecasting systems employ data-driven (statistical or machine learning) methods to harness and integrate a broad variety of predictions from dynamical, physics-based models – such as numerical weather prediction, climate, land, hydrology, Earth system into final prediction product. They are recognized promising way enhancing the skill meteorological variables events, including rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers. now receiving growing attention due advances in climate at subseasonal decadal scales, better appreciation strengths AI, expanding access computational resources methods. Such attractive because they may avoid need run computationally expensive offline land model, can minimize effect biases that exist within dynamical outputs, benefit learning, learn large datasets, while combining different sources predictability with varying time horizons. Here we review recent developments hybrid outline key challenges opportunities for further research. These include obtaining physically explainable results, assimilating human influences novel data sources, integrating new ensemble techniques improve predictive skill, creating seamless schemes merge short long lead times, incorporating initial surface ocean/ice conditions, acknowledging spatial variability landscape forcing, increasing operational uptake schemes.

Language: Английский

---

Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability

Environmental Research Climate, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 2(2), P. 023001 - 023001

Published: April 21, 2023

Abstract Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given contingencies originating from combination of different sources projection uncertainty, chief among them internal variability. Here, we review causes and consequences variability, how it can be quantified accounted in uncertainty assessments, what research questions remain most pertinent better understand its predictive limits science society. This perspective argues putting variability into spotlight intensifying collaborations between modeling application communities.

Language: Английский

---