Responses of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality to future climate, land use, and emission changes: Insights from modeling across shared socioeconomic pathways DOI Creative Commons
Hemraj Bhattarai, Amos P. K. Tai, Maria Val Martin

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 948, P. 174611 - 174611

Published: July 9, 2024

Air pollution induced by fine particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) poses a significant challenge for global air quality management. Understanding how factors such as climate change, land use and cover change (LULCC), changing emissions interact to impact PM2.5 remains limited. To address this gap, we employed the Community Earth System Model examined both individual combined effects of these on surface in 2010 projected scenarios 2050 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results reveal biomass-burning anthropogenic primary drivers across all SSPs. Less polluted regions like US Europe are expected experience substantial reduction future scenarios, reaching up ~5 μg m−3 (70 %) SSP1. However, heavily India China may varied outcomes, potential decrease SSP1 increase SSP3. Eastern witness ~20 % rise SSP3, while northern ~70 same scenario. Depending region, alone is ±5 m−3, influence LULCC appears even weaker. The modest changes attributable associated aerosol chemistry meteorological effects, including biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, SO2 oxidation, NH4NO3 formation. Despite their comparatively minor role, can still significantly shape specific regions, potentially counteracting benefits emission control initiatives. This study underscores pivotal role shaping SSP scenarios. Thus, addressing contributing factors, focus reducing crucial achieving sustainable levels meeting mitigation goals.

Language: Английский

Climate Change, Landscape Fires, and Human Health: A Global Perspective DOI
Fay H. Johnston, Grant J. Williamson, Nicolás Borchers Arriagada

et al.

Annual Review of Public Health, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 45(1), P. 295 - 314

Published: Jan. 2, 2024

Landscape fires are an integral component of the Earth system and a feature prehistoric, subsistence, industrial economies. Specific spatiotemporal patterns landscape fire occur in different locations around world, shaped by interactions between environmental human drivers activity. Seven distinct types emerge from these interactions: remote area fires, wildfire disasters, savanna Indigenous burning, prescribed agricultural deforestation fires. All can have substantial impacts on health well-being directly indirectly through (a) exposure to heat flux (e.g., injuries destructive impacts), (b) emissions smoke-related (c) altered ecosystem functioning biodiversity, amenity, water quality, climate impacts). Minimizing adverse effects population requires understanding how influences be modified interventions targeted at individual, community, regional levels.

Language: Английский

Citations

19

Intricate synergistic effects between air pollution and carbon emission: An emerging evidence from China DOI
Yanwen Wang,

Jinmian Ni,

Kewei Xu

et al.

Environmental Pollution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 349, P. 123851 - 123851

Published: March 23, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

17

A Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Approaches in Estimating Surface PM2.5 Concentrations Focusing on Artificial Neural Networks and High Pollution Events DOI Creative Commons

Su-Huai Wei,

Kyle Shores, Yangyang Xu

et al.

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1), P. 48 - 48

Published: Jan. 5, 2025

Surface PM2.5 concentrations have significant implications for human health, necessitating accurate estimations. This study compares various machine learning models, including linear tree-based algorithms, and artificial neural networks (ANNs) estimating using the MERRA-2 dataset from 2012 to 2023. Mutual information Spearman cross-feature correlation scores are used during feature selections. The performance of models is evaluated metrics normalized Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NNSE), root mean standard deviation ratio (RSR), percentage error (MPE). Our results show that ANNs outperform tree particularly in daily 35–1000 µg/m3. improve NNSE by 119% 46%, RSR 40% 24%, MPE 44% 30% respectively, indicating ANN’s superior estimation high pollution days. sensitivity analysis features interpret suggests total extinction AOD at 550 nm surface CO most important Western Eastern U.S., respectively. findings suggest even simplest NNs provide better air quality estimates, especially events, which beneficial long-term exposure analysis. Future research should explore more sophisticated NN architectures with spatial temporal variations model performance.

Language: Английский

Citations

3

High-Resolution Estimation of Daily PM2.5 Levels in the Contiguous US Using Bi-LSTM with Attention DOI Creative Commons
Zhongying Wang, James Crooks, Elizabeth A. Regan

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(1), P. 126 - 126

Published: Jan. 2, 2025

Estimating surface-level PM2.5 concentrations at any given location is crucial for public health monitoring and cohort studies. Existing models datasets this purpose have limited precision, especially on high-concentration days. Additionally, due to the lack of open-source code, generating estimates other areas time periods remains cumbersome. We developed a novel deep learning-based model that improves concentration by capitalizing temporal dynamics air quality. Specifically, we improve estimation precision developing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with Attention integrating multiple data sources, including in situ measurements, remotely sensed data, wildfire smoke density observations, which model’s ability capture events. rigorously evaluate against existing products, demonstrating 2.2% improvement overall RMSE, 9.8% reduction RMSE days, highlighting superior performance our approach, particularly Using model, produced comprehensive dataset from 2005 2021 contiguous United States are releasing an framework ensure reproducibility facilitate further adaptation quality

Language: Английский

Citations

2

Shifting the Conversation on Wildland Fire Smoke Exposures: More Smoke within and across Years Requires a New Approach to Inform Public Health Action DOI
Jason D. Sacks, Christopher T. Migliaccio, Colleen E. Reid

et al.

ACS ES&T Air, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 2(2), P. 122 - 129

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

With the increase in acres burned from wildfire over last few decades, smoke is an increasing global public health threat. To date, research, risk communication, and action has focused on short-term (or daily) exposures. However, patterns of exposure are transitioning to include longer duration repeated exposures occurring within across years. Epidemiologic experimental studies represent important lines evidence that have informed communication actions for exposures; however, they yet provide science needed refine approaches other dynamic durations such as repeated, episodic, or cumulative. This commentary provides overview methodological used recent findings epidemiologic examined duration, Based current science, we recommend future examine multiple metrics capture frequency, intensity Such would improve produced best support needs strive further protect a world projected more smoke.

Language: Английский

Citations

2

The Influence of Wildfire Smoke on Ambient PM2.5 Chemical Species Concentrations in the Contiguous US DOI
Emma Krasovich, Minghao Qiu, Carlos Gould

et al.

Environmental Science & Technology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 3, 2025

Wildfires significantly contribute to ambient air pollution, yet our understanding of how wildfire smoke influences specific chemicals and their resulting concentration in remains incomplete. We combine 15 years daily species-specific PM2.5 concentrations from 700 pollution monitors with satellite-derived PM2.5, use a panel regression estimate smoke's contribution the 27 different chemical species PM2.5. Wildfire drives detectable increases 25 out largest observed for organic carbon, elemental potassium. find that originating wildfires burned structures had higher copper, lead, zinc, nickel relative fires did not burn structures. is responsible an increasing share multiple species, some which are particularly harmful health. Using risk assessment approach, we wildfire-induced enhancement carcinogenic could cause population cancer risk, but these very small other environmental risks. demonstrate combining ground-monitored data can be used measure influence on exposures at large scales.

Language: Английский

Citations

2

Wildland Fires Worsened Population Exposure to PM2.5 Pollution in the Contiguous United States DOI Creative Commons
Danlu Zhang, Wenhao Wang,

Yuzhi Xi

et al.

Environmental Science & Technology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 57(48), P. 19990 - 19998

Published: Nov. 9, 2023

As wildland fires become more frequent and intense, fire smoke has significantly worsened the ambient air quality, posing greater health risks. To better understand impact of wildfire on we developed a modeling system to estimate daily PM2.5 concentrations attributed both nonsmoke sources across contiguous U.S. We found that most significant quality in West Coast, followed by Southeastern Between 2007 2018, contributed over 25% at ∼40% all regulatory monitors EPA's (AQS) for than one month per year. People residing outside vicinity an EPA AQS monitor (defined 5 km radius) were subject 36% days compared with those nearby. Lowering national standard (NAAQS) annual mean between 9 10 μg/m3 would result approximately 35–49% falling nonattainment areas, taking into account smoke. If contribution is excluded, this percentage be reduced 6 9%, demonstrating negative quality.

Language: Английский

Citations

24

Mortality attributable to PM 2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018 DOI Creative Commons
Rachel Connolly, Miriam E. Marlier,

Diane A. Garcia-Gonzales

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(23)

Published: June 7, 2024

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), but few studies quantified long-term outcomes, none used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we burden for PM California fires 2008 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire estimates. We concentration-response function , applying ZIP code–level data an estimated coefficient accounting likely toxicity of smoke. estimate total 52,480 55,710 premature deaths are attributable over 11-year period with respect two scenarios, equating economic impact $432 $456 billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related impacts, suggesting that wildfires account greater than indicated by earlier studies.

Language: Английский

Citations

11

Pregnancy exposure to PM2.5 from wildland fire smoke and preterm birth in California DOI Creative Commons
Sally Picciotto, ShihMing Huang, Frederick Lurmann

et al.

Environment International, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 186, P. 108583 - 108583

Published: March 16, 2024

Wildfires in the Western United States are a growing and significant source of air pollution that is eroding decades progress reduction. The effects on preterm birth during critical periods pregnancy unknown.

Language: Английский

Citations

10

Temperature-Dependent Composition of Summertime PM2.5 in Observations and Model Predictions across the Eastern U.S. DOI
Pietro F. Vannucci, Kristen M. Foley, Benjamin N. Murphy

et al.

ACS Earth and Space Chemistry, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(2), P. 381 - 392

Published: Feb. 5, 2024

Throughout the U.S., summertime fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exhibits a strong temperature (T) dependence. Reducing PM2.5 enhancement with T could reduce public health burden of now and in warmer future. Atmospheric models are critical tool for probing processes components driving observed behaviors. In this work, we describe how modeled aerosol abundance composition vary present-day Eastern specific attention to two major components: sulfate (SO42–) organic carbon (OC). Observations U.S. show an average measured PM2.5-T sensitivity 0.67 μg/m3/K, CMAQv5.4 regional model predictions closely matching value. Observed SO42– OC also increase T; however, has component-specific discrepancies observations. Specifically, underestimates concentrations their while overestimating T. Here, explore series interventions aimed at correcting these deviations. We conclude that relationship is driven by inorganic systems highly coupled, it possible design simultaneously address biases component as well responses

Language: Английский

Citations

9