Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes

Current Climate Change Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Oct. 2, 2024

Language: Английский

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Rainfall‐Driven Extreme Snowmelt Will Increase in the Tianshan and Pamir Regions Under Future Climate Projection

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(1)

Published: Jan. 2, 2025

Abstract Snowmelt and related extreme events can have profound natural societal impacts. However, the studies on projected changes in snow‐related extremes across Tianshan Mountains (TS) Pamir regions been underexplored. Utilizing regional climate model downscaling bias‐corrected CMIP6 data, this study examined snowmelt water available for runoff (SM ROS , rainfall plus snowmelt) during cold seasons these historical (1994–2014) future (2040–2060) periods under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP245 SSP585). The results demonstrated that accumulated was to rise by 17.98% 20.36%, whereas SM could increase 26.97% 28.95%, respectively, SSP245 SSP585 scenarios. Despite relatively minimal snowmelt, magnitude of daily maximum (10‐year return level) 28.04 mm expected 15.32% 15.31% scenarios, especially western TS exceeding 26%. Meanwhile, areas with a 50 over 13.5%. A notable its area occupation high intensity highlighted an increased risk rainfall‐driven events. absolute snowfall frequent snow‐rain phase transitions season warming (SSP245: 2.19°C SSP585: 2.22°C) benefits high‐intensity rain‐on‐snow events, leading augmentation. findings emphasize significant role rainfall‐trigger exacerbating climate.

Language: Английский

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Changes in Snow Drought and the Impacts on Streamflow Across Northern Catchments

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract Snow drought, characterized by an anomalous reduction in snowpack, exerts profound hydrological and socioeconomic impacts cold regions. Despite its significance, the influence of diverse snow drought types, including warm, dry, warm‐and‐dry variants, on streamflow remains inadequately understood. Here we present first hemispheric‐scale, observation‐based assessment patterns seasonal annual ( Q ) across 3049 northern catchments over 1950–2020. Our findings reveal that with a lower mean snowfall fraction () exhibit heightened prevalence severity warm droughts, whereas high‐ experience more prevalent but less severe dry drought. This disparity arises from distinct sensitivities snowpack to cold‐season precipitation temperature. In addition, droughts induce during both seasons, culminating significant decrease . Conversely, increases decreases , attributable trade‐off between increased c decreased warm‐season w ). With ongoing climate warming, continued is anticipated, which expected further increase frequency warm‐dry droughts. These circumstances, particularly impactful under low conditions, are poised formidable challenges for water resources management regions globally.

Language: Английский

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Warming triggers snowfall fraction loss Thresholds in High-Mountain Asia

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Feb. 17, 2025

Global warming is accelerating climate disasters by triggering tipping points in various Earth systems. Although changes precipitation patterns High-Mountain Asia (HMA) have been extensively studied, the specific thresholds that trigger rapid snowfall loss remain unclear. A continuous piecewise linear regression model was employed to classify HMA into four distinct regimes: insensitive snowfall-dominated areas, sensitive rainfall-dominated and areas. Our results show future will increase sensitivity of winter spring change, whereas summer autumn become less sensitive. All regimes exhibit an upward shift higher elevations, with varying rates elevation gain across regions seasons. Temperature primary driver loss, relative humidity mitigates it. This study identifies high-risk areas vulnerable help guide development effective mitigation strategies.

Language: Английский

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Streamflow shifts with declining snowfall

Nature, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 638(8052), P. E35 - E37

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

Language: Английский

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The Influence of Topography on the Global Terrestrial Water Cycle

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(1)

Published: Jan. 3, 2025

Abstract Topography affects the distribution and movement of water on Earth, yet new insights about topographic controls continue to surprise us exciting puzzles remain. Here we combine literature review data synthesis explore influence topography global terrestrial cycle, from atmosphere down groundwater. Above land surface, induces gradients contrasts in energy availability. Long‐term precipitation usually increases with elevation mid‐latitudes, while it peaks at low‐ mid‐elevations tropics. Potential evaporation tends decrease all climate zones. At is expressed snow distribution, vegetation zonation, geomorphic landforms, critical zone, drainage networks. Evaporation activity are often highest where neither temperature, nor availability, availability—often modulated by lateral moisture redistribution—impose strong limitations. Below drives groundwater local continental scales. In many steep upland regions, systems well connected streams provide ample baseflow, start losing foothills bedrock transitions into highly permeable sediment. We conclude presenting organizing principles, discussing implications change human activity, identifying needs knowledge gaps. A defining feature resulting presence contrasts, whose interactions explain patterns observe nature how they might future.

Language: Английский

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The shifts of precipitation phases and their impacts

Science China Earth Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 3, 2025

Language: Английский

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Counteracting greenhouse gas and aerosol influences intensify global water seasonality over the past century

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Jan. 18, 2025

Variations in water availability seasonality significantly impact society and ecosystems. While many studies have focused on mean or extreme precipitation, the response of seasonality, influencing yearly distribution beyond individual extremes, to human-induced climate change remains underexplored. Here we examine global regional changes from 1915 2014, quantifying how anthropogenic greenhouse gases aerosols influenced these variations using reanalysis simulations Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Despite large spatiotemporal uncertainties due variability model assumptions, find that amplify while reduce it. Given positive effects surpass aerosols' negative effects, counterbalancing influences led an overall enhancement over past century. This trend is expected continue future as gases-induced warming continues rise aerosol levels decline. Anthropogenic gas emissions amplified 100 years, a continue, according analysis meteorology data simulations.

Language: Английский

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Projecting future snow changes at kilometer scale for adaptation using machine learning and a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 964, P. 178606 - 178606

Published: Jan. 24, 2025

Assessing future snow cover changes is challenging because the high spatial resolution required typically unavailable from climate models. This study, therefore, proposes an alternative approach to estimating by developing a super-spatial-resolution downscaling model of depth (SD) for Japan using convolutional neural network (CNN)-based method, and ensemble models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset. After assessing coherence observed reference SD dataset with independent observations, we leveraged it train CNN model; following its evaluation, applied trained CMIP6 simulations. The downscaled mean reproduced distribution seasonality observations. We found average decrease in snow-covered area about 20 % winter 25 early spring, altitude-dependent changes, delayed appearance middle 21st Century under emission scenario. Overall, captures physically plausible relationships, enables high-resolution assessments based on multi-model ensemble, produces results consistent regional models, provides valuable insights into how will affect tourism water resources, highlighting potential benefits wide range adaptation studies.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of future hydrology in the Pearl River Basin: Controls of climate change and land surface

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 58, P. 102239 - 102239

Published: Feb. 12, 2025

Language: Английский

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