The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures DOI Creative Commons
Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Aug. 26, 2020

Abstract The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive role inapparent infections, capable of: estimating expected unfolding outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from baseline, should relaxations result increased disease transmission; calculating isolation effort required prevent resurgence outbreak. A 40% increase transmission would yield rebound infections. isolating daily ~5.5% exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary maintain epidemic curve onto decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on epidemiological data that became available after initial analysis estimate actual occurred weakening lockdown.

Language: Английский

A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities DOI Open Access
Ian A. Cooper, Argha Mondal, Chris G. Antonopoulos

et al.

Chaos Solitons & Fractals, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 139, P. 110057 - 110057

Published: June 28, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

714

The efficacy of social distance and ventilation effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 transmission DOI Open Access
Chanjuan Sun, Zhiqiang Zhai

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 62, P. 102390 - 102390

Published: July 13, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

596

Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions DOI Creative Commons
Cliff C. Kerr, Robyn M. Stuart, Dina Mistry

et al.

PLoS Computational Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 17(7), P. e1009149 - e1009149

Published: July 26, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), open-source model developed to help address these questions. includes country-specific demographic information on age structure population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, long-term care facilities, communities; age-specific disease outcomes; intrahost viral dynamics, viral-load-based transmissibility. also supports extensive set interventions, non-pharmaceutical such as physical distancing protective equipment; pharmaceutical vaccination; testing symptomatic asymptomatic testing, isolation, contact tracing, quarantine. These interventions incorporate effects delays, loss-to-follow-up, micro-targeting, other factors. Implemented pure Python, been designed with equal emphasis performance, ease use, flexibility: highly customized scenarios be run a standard laptop under minute. In collaboration local health agencies policymakers, already applied examine dynamics inform policy decisions more than dozen countries Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America.

Language: Английский

Citations

519

The Psychological Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Health Professionals: A Cross-Sectional Study DOI Creative Commons
Emanuele Maria Giusti, Elisa Pedroli, Guido Edoardo D’Aniello

et al.

Frontiers in Psychology, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: July 10, 2020

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic had a massive impact on health care systems, increasing the risks of psychological distress in professionals. This study aims at assessing prevalence burnout and psychopathological conditions professionals working institution Northern Italy, to identify socio-demographic, work-related predictors burnout. Methods: Health hospitals Istituto Auxologico Italiano were asked participate an online anonymous survey investigating socio-demographic data, emergency-related work factors, state anxiety, distress, post-traumatic symptoms Predictors three components assessed using elastic net regression models. Results: Three hundred thirty participated survey. Two thirty-five (71.2%) scores anxiety above clinical cutoff, 88 (26.8%) levels depression, 103 (31.3%) 113 (34.3%) stress, 121 (36.7%) stress. Regarding burnout, 107 (35.7%) moderate 105 (31.9%) severe emotional exhaustion; 46 (14.0%) 40 (12.1%) depersonalization; 132 (40.1%) reduced personal accomplishment. all hours, comorbidities, fear infection perceived support by friends. both exhaustion depersonalization female gender, being nurse, hospital, contact with patients. Reduced accomplishment was also predicted age. Conclusions: high during emergency. Monitoring timely treatment these is needed.

Language: Английский

Citations

511

COVID-ABS: An agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions DOI Open Access
Petrônio Cândido de Lima e Silva, Paulo Vitor do Carmo Batista, Hélder Seixas Lima

et al.

Chaos Solitons & Fractals, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 139, P. 110088 - 110088

Published: July 7, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

378

The emergence, genomic diversity and global spread of SARS-CoV-2 DOI Open Access
Juan Li, Shengjie Lai, George F. Gao

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 600(7889), P. 408 - 418

Published: Dec. 8, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

351

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data for Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: A Survey on the State-of-the-Arts DOI Creative Commons
Quoc‐Viet Pham, Dinh C. Nguyen, Thien Huynh‐The

et al.

IEEE Access, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 8, P. 130820 - 130839

Published: Jan. 1, 2020

The very first infected novel coronavirus case (COVID-19) was found in Hubei, China Dec. 2019. COVID-19 pandemic has spread over 214 countries and areas the world, significantly affected every aspect of our daily lives. At time writing this article, numbers cases deaths still increase have no sign a well-controlled situation, e.g., as 13 July 2020, from total number around 13.1 million positive cases, 571,527 were reported world. Motivated by recent advances applications artificial intelligence (AI) big data various areas, paper aims at emphasizing their importance responding to outbreak preventing severe effects pandemic. We firstly present an overview AI data, then identify aimed fighting against COVID-19, next highlight challenges issues associated with state-of-the-art solutions, finally come up recommendations for communications effectively control situation. It is expected that provides researchers communities new insights into ways improve drives further studies stopping outbreak.

Language: Английский

Citations

349

COVID-19 in early 2021: current status and looking forward DOI Creative Commons
Chengdi Wang, Zhoufeng Wang, Guangyu Wang

et al.

Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: March 8, 2021

Abstract Since the first description of a coronavirus-related pneumonia outbreak in December 2019, virus SARS-CoV-2 that causes infection/disease (COVID-19) has evolved into pandemic, and as today, >100 million people globally over 210 countries have been confirmed to infected two died COVID-19. This brief review summarized what we hitherto learned following areas: epidemiology, virology, pathogenesis, diagnosis, use artificial intelligence assisting treatment, vaccine development. As there are number parallel developments each these areas some development deployment were at unprecedented speed, also provided specific dates for certain milestones so readers can appreciate timing critical events. Of note is fact diagnostics, antiviral drugs, vaccines developed approved by regulatory within 1 year after was discovered. conducted parallel, events evolution research data our understanding. The world working together combat this pandemic. highlights directions will evolve rapidly near future.

Language: Английский

Citations

309

Forecasting Models for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Survey of the State-of-the-Art DOI Creative Commons
Gitanjali R. Shinde,

Asmita Balasaheb Kalamkar,

Parikshit N. Mahalle

et al.

SN Computer Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(4)

Published: June 11, 2020

COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected over 170 countries around the world. The number of infected and deceased patients been increasing at an alarming rate in almost all nations. Forecasting techniques can be inculcated thereby assisting designing better strategies taking productive decisions. These assess situations past enabling predictions about situation to occur future. might help prepare against possible threats consequences. play very important role yielding accurate predictions. This study categorizes forecasting into two types, namely, stochastic theory mathematical models data science/machine learning techniques. Data collected from various platforms also vital forecasting. In this study, categories datasets have discussed, i.e., big accessed World Health Organization/National databases social media communication. done based on parameters such as impact environmental factors, incubation period, quarantine, age, gender many more. used for are extensively studied work. However, come with their own set challenges (technical generic). discusses these provides recommendations people who currently fighting global pandemic.

Language: Английский

Citations

291

A mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of India DOI Open Access
Piu Samui, Jayanta Mondal, Subhas Khajanchi

et al.

Chaos Solitons & Fractals, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 140, P. 110173 - 110173

Published: Aug. 5, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

275