Agent-based modeling of COVID-19 outbreaks for New York state and UK: Parameter identification algorithm DOI Creative Commons
Olga Krivorotko,

Mariia Sosnovskaia,

Ivan Vashchenko

et al.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 30 - 44

Published: Nov. 27, 2021

This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios epidemic spread in New York State (USA), the UK, Novosibirsk region (Russia). Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus transmission rate), initial number infected people, probability being tested depend on region's demographic geographical features, containment measures introduced; they are calibrated data about COVID-19 interest. At first stage our study, epidemiological (numbers people tested, diagnoses, critical cases, hospitalizations, deaths) for each mentioned regions were analyzed. The characterized terms seasonality, stationarity, dependency spaces, extrapolated using machine learning techniques specify unknown model. second stage, Optuna optimizer based tree Parzen estimation method objective function minimization was applied determine model's parameters. validated with historical 2020. modeled results State, UK have demonstrated that if level testing is preserved, positive cases will remain same during March 2021, while it reduce. Due features (two datasets stationary series 1), forecast precision relatively high but lower new COVID-19.

Language: Английский

Signal propagation in complex networks DOI
Peng Ji, Jiachen Ye, Yu Mu

et al.

Physics Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1017, P. 1 - 96

Published: April 5, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

180
OpenABM-Covid19—An agent-based model for non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 including contact tracing DOI Creative Commons
Robert Hinch, William J. M. Probert, Anel Nurtay

et al.

PLoS Computational Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 17(7), P. e1009146 - e1009146

Published: July 12, 2021

SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through ongoing epidemic, with computational models being used predict of infection assess impact public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation epidemic including detailed age-stratification realistic networks. By default model is parameterised UK demographics calibrated however, it can easily be re-parameterised for other countries. OpenABM-Covid19 evaluate non-pharmaceutical interventions, both manual digital contact tracing, vaccination programmes. It simulate a population 1 million people in seconds per day, allowing parameter sweeps formal statistical model-based inference. The code open-source been developed by teams inside outside academia, emphasis testing, documentation, modularity transparency. A key feature its Python R interfaces, which allowed scientists policymakers dynamic packages interventions help compare options suppress COVID-19 epidemic.

Language: Английский

Citations

173
The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate DOI Creative Commons
Sebastián Contreras, Jonas Dehning, Matthias Loidolt

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Jan. 15, 2021

Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, undetected spreaders, who strongly contribute hidden infection chains. Here, we studied semi-analytical model identified two tipping points between controlled uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number of chains becomes too large be compensated capabilities, (2) new infections exceeds tracing capacity. Both trigger self-accelerating We investigated how these depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, imperfect isolation. Our results suggest that alone insufficient an otherwise unhindered spread implying complementary measures social distancing improved hygiene remain necessary.

Language: Английский

Citations

153
Controlling COVID-19 via test-trace-quarantine DOI Creative Commons
Cliff C. Kerr, Dina Mistry, Robyn M. Stuart

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: May 20, 2021

Abstract Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal economic costs. Here, we demonstrate feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing their known contacts, placing contacts quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, open-source agent-based model, which has been calibrated to detailed demographic, epidemiological data for Seattle region from January through June 2020. With current levels mask use schools remaining closed, find that high but achievable are sufficient maintain epidemic even under a return full community mobility with low vaccine coverage. The easing restrictions 2020 subsequent scale-up programs September provided real-world validation our predictions. Although show test-trace-quarantine can both theory practice, its success is contingent rates, quarantine compliance, relatively short delays, moderate use. Thus, order transmission strong performance all aspects program required.

Language: Английский

Citations

111
AI for science: Predicting infectious diseases DOI Creative Commons

Alexis Pengfei Zhao,

Shuangqi Li, Zhidong Cao

et al.

Journal of Safety Science and Resilience, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(2), P. 130 - 146

Published: March 15, 2024

The global health landscape has been persistently challenged by the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases. Traditional epidemiological models, rooted in early 20th century, have provided foundational insights into disease dynamics. However, intricate web modern interactions exponential growth available data demand more advanced predictive tools. This is where AI for Science (AI4S) comes play, offering a transformative approach integrating artificial intelligence (AI) prediction. paper elucidates pivotal role AI4S enhancing and, some instances, superseding traditional methodologies. By harnessing AI's capabilities, facilitates real-time monitoring, sophisticated integration, modeling with enhanced precision. comparative analysis highlights stark contrast between conventional models innovative strategies enabled AI4S. In essence, represents paradigm shift research. It addresses limitations paves way proactive informed response to future outbreaks. As we navigate complexities challenges, stands as beacon, signifying next phase evolution prediction, characterized increased accuracy, adaptability, efficiency.

Language: Английский

Citations

45
Intelligent Agents: Multi-Agent Systems DOI
Alfredo Garro, Alberto Falcone, Matteo Baldoni

et al.

Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Citations

25
Spatio-temporal simulation of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak using the agent-based modeling approach (case study: Urmia, Iran) DOI Creative Commons
Navid Mahdizadeh Gharakhanlou,

Navid Hooshangi

Informatics in Medicine Unlocked, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 20, P. 100403 - 100403

Published: Jan. 1, 2020

The ongoing outbreak of the COVID-19 as current global concern threatens lives many people around world. is highly contagious so that it has infected more than 1,848,439 until April 14, 2020 and killed 117,217 people. main aim this study to develop an agent-based model (ABM) simulates spatio-temporal COVID-19. innovation research investigating impacts various strategies school educational center closures, heeding social distancing, office closures on controlling in Urmia city, Iran. In research, disease was simulated with help ABM all agents considered along their attributes behaviors well environment were described. Besides, transmission between human based SEIRD model, finally, control applied city corresponding actions each strategy implemented ABM. results indicated reduced number by 4.96% week average 49.61% total from February 21 May 10. Heeding distancing 30% 70% March 27, led decrease 5.24% 10.07% week, 31.46% 60.44% total, respectively, if civil servants did not go work, would be decreased 3.30% 5.25% 32.98% 52.48% 10, respectively. As a result majority recommended for situation. advantages modeling are investigate how likely evolve amongst population society also assess disease.

Language: Английский

Citations

93
SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk from asymptomatic carriers: Results from a mass screening programme in Luxembourg DOI Creative Commons
Paul Wilmes, Jacques Zimmer, Jasmin Schulz

et al.

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 4, P. 100056 - 100056

Published: Feb. 27, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

90
Modeling the effect of exposure notification and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Washington state DOI Creative Commons
Matthew Abueg, Robert Hinch, Neo Wu

et al.

npj Digital Medicine, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: March 12, 2021

Abstract Contact tracing is increasingly used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now being deployed, many based on Apple Google’s Exposure Notification System. These systems utilize non-traditional smartphone-based technology, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In this work, we create individual-based models of three Washington state counties explore how exposure notifications combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions influence COVID-19 disease spread under various adoption, compliance, mobility scenarios. a model 15% participation, found that notification could reduce infections deaths by approximately 8% 6% effectively complement traditional contact tracing. We believe can provide health authorities beyond guidance suppress the COVID-19.

Language: Английский

Citations

83
State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States DOI Creative Commons
Weihsueh A. Chiu, Rebecca S. B. Fischer, Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah

et al.

Nature Human Behaviour, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 4(10), P. 1080 - 1090

Published: Oct. 6, 2020

Starting in mid-May 2020, many US states began relaxing social-distancing measures that were put place to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To evaluate impact relaxation restrictions on COVID-19 dynamics and control, we developed a transmission dynamic model calibrated it state-level cases deaths. We used this social distancing, testing contact tracing epidemic each state. As 22 July found only three track curtail their curve. Thirty-nine District Columbia may have double and/or rates rolling back reopening by 25%, while eight require an even greater measure combined testing, distancing. Increased contact-tracing capacity is paramount for mitigating recent large-scale increases Using Bayesian susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed (SEIR) compartmental model, authors demonstrate that, almost all states, doubling also 25–50% via distancing can resurgence

Language: Английский

Citations

74