LegacyClimate 1.0: a dataset of pollen-based climate reconstructions from 2594 Northern Hemisphere sites covering the last 30 kyr and beyond DOI Creative Commons
Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Böhmer, Chenzhi Li

et al.

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 2235 - 2258

Published: June 2, 2023

Abstract. Here we describe LegacyClimate 1.0, a dataset of the reconstruction mean July temperature (TJuly), annual (Tann), and precipitation (Pann) from 2594 fossil pollen records Northern Hemisphere, spanning entire Holocene, with some reaching back to Last Glacial Period. Two methods, modern analog technique (MAT) weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS), reveal similar results regarding spatial temporal patterns. To reduce impact on reconstruction, vice versa, also provide reconstructions using tailored data, limiting range corresponding other climate variables. We assess reliability reconstructions, information distributions root squared error in prediction significance tests. The is beneficial for synthesis studies proxy-based evaluate output models thus help improve themselves. our compilation reconstructed TJuly, Tann, Pann as open-access datasets at PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.930512; Herzschuh et al., 2023a). R code provided Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7887565; 2023b), including harmonized used so that customized can be easily established.

Language: Английский

Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries DOI Creative Commons
Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen, Wolfgang Lucht

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(37)

Published: Sept. 13, 2023

This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine are transgressed, suggesting Earth is now well outside safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased all earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives system biosphere functions, human appropriation net proposed a control variable functional integrity. boundary also transgressed. modeling different climate and land change illustrates these anthropogenic impacts on must be considered in systemic context.

Language: Английский

Citations

1330
Safe and just Earth system boundaries DOI Creative Commons
Johan Rockström, Joyeeta Gupta,

Dahe Qin

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 619(7968), P. 102 - 111

Published: May 31, 2023

Abstract The stability and resilience of the Earth system human well-being are inseparably linked 1–3 , yet their interdependencies generally under-recognized; consequently, they often treated independently 4,5 . Here, we use modelling literature assessment to quantify safe just boundaries (ESBs) for climate, biosphere, water nutrient cycles, aerosols at global subglobal scales. We propose ESBs maintaining (safe ESBs) minimizing exposure significant harm humans from change (a necessary but not sufficient condition justice) 4 stricter or sets integrated ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain more than safety climate atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven eight globally quantified least two regional in over half land area already exceeded. our provides a quantitative foundation safeguarding commons all people now into future.

Language: Английский

Citations

683
Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum DOI
Matthew Osman, Jessica E. Tierney, Jiang Zhu

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 599(7884), P. 239 - 244

Published: Nov. 10, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

380
Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach DOI Creative Commons
Darrell S. Kaufman, Nicholas P. McKay, Cody Routson

et al.

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: June 30, 2020

Abstract An extensive new multi-proxy database of paleo-temperature time series (Temperature 12k) enables a more robust analysis global mean surface temperature (GMST) and associated uncertainties than was previously available. We applied five different statistical methods to reconstruct the GMST past 12,000 years (Holocene). Each method used approaches averaging globally distributed characterizing various sources uncertainty, including proxy temperature, chronology methodological choices. The results were aggregated generate multi-method ensemble plausible latitudinal-zone reconstructions with realistic range uncertainties. warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 ago when 0.7 °C (0.3, 1.8) warmer 19 th Century (median, 5 , 95 percentiles). Following Holocene thermal maximum, cooled at an average rate −0.08 per 1000 (−0.24, −0.05). ensembles code them highlight utility Temperature 12k database, they are now available for future use by studies aimed understanding evolution Earth system.

Language: Английский

Citations

349
Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial DOI
Samantha C. Bova, Yair Rosenthal, Zhengyu Liu

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 589(7843), P. 548 - 553

Published: Jan. 27, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

298
Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 <i>midHolocene</i> simulations DOI Creative Commons

Chris Brierley,

Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison

et al.

Climate of the past, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 16(5), P. 1847 - 1872

Published: Oct. 1, 2020

Abstract. The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of simulated response global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. latest simulations are entry card Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component current phase Coupled (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and results experiment mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art produce changes broadly consistent with theory observations, including increased summer warming Northern Hemisphere associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features PMIP4-CMIP6 were present previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) simulations. ensemble has mean temperature change −0.3 K, which −0.2 K cooler than PMIP3-CMIP5 predominantly result prescription realistic greenhouse gas concentrations Biases magnitude sign regional responses identified PMIP3-CMIP5, such amplification northern African monsoon, precipitation over Europe, aridity mid-Eurasia, still Despite these issues, opportunity both quantitative derivation emergent constraints on hydrological cycle, feedback strength, potentially sensitivity.

Language: Английский

Citations

188
Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change DOI Creative Commons
Benjamin Strauss, Philip Orton, Klaus Bittermann

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: May 18, 2021

In 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence climate change on storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels damage both as they occurred would have across a range lower corresponding different estimates attributable rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B-$14.0B, 5th-95th percentiles) Sandy's damages are climate-mediated rise, is extension flood area affect 71 (40-131) thousand additional people. same general approach demonstrated may be applied impact assessments for other past future storms.

Language: Английский

Citations

168
Revisiting the Holocene global temperature conundrum DOI
Darrell S. Kaufman, Ellie Broadman

Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 614(7948), P. 425 - 435

Published: Feb. 15, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

133
The archaeology of climate change: The case for cultural diversity DOI Creative Commons
Ariane Burke, Matthew Peros, Colin D. Wren

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(30)

Published: July 22, 2021

Anthropogenic climate change is currently driving environmental transformation on a scale and at pace that exceeds historical records. This represents an undeniably serious challenge to existing social, political, economic systems. Humans have successfully faced similar challenges in the past, however. The archaeological record Earth archives offer rare opportunities observe complex interaction between human systems under different regimes spatial temporal scales. archaeology of offers identify factors promoted resilience past apply knowledge gained present, contributing much-needed, long-term perspective research. One strengths cultural diversity it encompasses, which alternatives solutions proposed from within Western agro-industrial complex, might not be viable cross-culturally. While contemporary discourse focuses importance biodiversity, we highlight as source resilience.

Language: Английский

Citations

114
The variable European Little Ice Age DOI
Heinz Wanner, Christian Pfister, Raphael Neukom

et al.

Quaternary Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 287, P. 107531 - 107531

Published: May 25, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

93