Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya DOI Creative Commons
Cameron Nosrat, Jonathan Altamirano, Assaf Anyamba

et al.

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. e0009182 - e0009182

Published: March 18, 2021

Climate change and variability influence temperature rainfall, which impact vector abundance the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. is projected to increase frequency intensity extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability affect populations via a variety biological processes thus ability mosquitoes effectively transmit disease. However, effect droughts, floods, heat waves, cold waves not well understood. Using vector, climate, data collected between 2013 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims elucidate rainfall on mosquito risk arboviral infections. To define periods land surface (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies deviations from long-term means (1983–2019 for 2000–2019 LST) across four locations Kenya. We classified events upper lower 10% these LST or deviations. Monthly Ae . was recorded Kenya using trapping methods. Blood samples were also children with febrile illness presenting field sites tested virus an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) polymerase chain reaction (PCR). found that eggs adults significantly more abundant one month following abnormally wet month. The relationship follows non-linear association. Our findings suggest early warnings targeted interventions during abnormal temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute reductions viral

Language: Английский

A novel hybrid of meta-optimization approach for flash flood-susceptibility assessment in a monsoon-dominated watershed, Eastern India DOI

Dipankar Ruidas,

Rabin Chakrabortty, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam

et al.

Environmental Earth Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 81(5)

Published: Feb. 21, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

94
Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming DOI Creative Commons
Stephan Thober, Rohini Kumar, Niko Wanders

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 014003 - 014003

Published: Nov. 29, 2017

Abstract Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European under 1.5, 2, 3 K global warming. The are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation (GCMs) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, 8.5). is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) spatial resolution, which 5 km over entirety Climate quantified for high flows flood events, represented 10% exceedance probability annual maxima daily streamflow, respectively. points Mediterranean region as hotspot changes significant decrements from −11% at 1.5 up −30% warming mainly resulting reduced precipitation. Small (< ±10%) observed basins Central Europe British Isles different levels Projected higher precipitation increases Scandinavia, but snow melt equivalent decreases this region. Neglecting uncertainties originating internal variability, downscaling technique, model parameters, contribution GCMs overall than that HMs. latter, however, substantial share Scandinavia. Adaptation measures limiting could be similar 2 warming, account significantly

Language: Английский

Citations

150
Why increased extreme precipitation under climate change negatively affects water security DOI Creative Commons
Joris Eekhout, Johannes Hunink, W. Terink

et al.

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 22(11), P. 5935 - 5946

Published: Nov. 21, 2018

Abstract. An increase in extreme precipitation is projected for many areas worldwide the coming decades. To assess impact of increased intensity on water security, we applied a regional-scale hydrological and soil erosion model, forced with regional climate model projections. We specifically considered change distribution between (green water) surface (blue compartments. show that an leads to redistribution within catchment, where storage decreases reservoir inflow increases. This affects plant stress potential rainfed versus irrigated agriculture, increases dependency storage, which potentially threatened by erosion. study demonstrates crucial importance accounting fact green blue water, erosion, reduced security. Ultimately, this has implications design adaptation measures, should aim holding capacity maintain reservoirs water), benefiting agriculture.

Language: Английский

Citations

144
Event‐based classification for global study of river flood generating processes DOI Creative Commons
Lina Stein, Francesca Pianosi, Ross Woods

et al.

Hydrological Processes, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 34(7), P. 1514 - 1529

Published: Dec. 13, 2019

Abstract Better understanding of which processes generate floods in a catchment can improve flood frequency analysis and potentially climate change impacts assessment. However, current classification methods are either not transferable across locations or do provide event‐based information. We therefore developed location‐independent, methodology that is applicable different climates returns all events, including extreme ones. use precipitation time series very simply modelled soil moisture snowmelt as inputs for decision tree. A total 113,635 events 4155 catchments worldwide were classified into one five hydro‐climatological generating processes: short rain, long excess rainfall, combination rain snow. The new was tested its robustness evaluated with available information; these two tests often lacking approaches. According to the evaluation, mostly successful indicates rainfall most common dominant process. process informative catchments, there high at‐site variability processes. This particularly relevant estimation diverge from their usual generation pattern, especially United Kingdom, Northern France, Southeastern States, India.

Language: Английский

Citations

134
Impact of urban sprawl on future flooding in Chennai city, India DOI

N. Nithila Devi,

B. Sridharan, Soumendra Nath Kuiry

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 574, P. 486 - 496

Published: April 20, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

102
A review of the effects of climate change on riverine flooding in subtropical and tropical regions DOI Creative Commons
Rohan Eccles, Hong Zhang, David P. Hamilton

et al.

Journal of Water and Climate Change, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(4), P. 687 - 707

Published: Aug. 26, 2019

Abstract Tropical and subtropical regions can be particularly severely affected by flooding. Climate change is expected to lead more intense precipitation in many of the world, increasing frequency magnitude flood events. This paper presents a review studies assessing impacts climate on riverine flooding world's tropical regions. A systematic quantitative approach was used evaluate literature. The majority reported increases under change, with most consistent predicted for South Asia, East western Amazon. Results were varied Latin America Africa where there notable paucity studies. Our points need further these as well Australia, small mid-sized catchments, rapidly urbanising catchments developing world. Adoption non-stationary analysis techniques improved site-specific socio-economic environmental model scenarios identified important future directions research. Data accessibility mitigation uncertainty recognised principal issues faced researchers investigating rivers.

Language: Английский

Citations

101
A data-driven analysis of flash flood hazard, fatalities, and damages over the CONUS during 1996–2017 DOI Creative Commons
Ali Ahmadalipour, Hamid Moradkhani

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 578, P. 124106 - 124106

Published: Sept. 4, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

91
Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance DOI Open Access
Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan

et al.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 379(2195), P. 20190548 - 20190548

Published: March 1, 2021

Research into potential implications of climate change on flood hazard has made significant progress over the past decade, yet efforts to translate this research practical guidance for estimation remain in their infancy. In commentary, we address question: how best can be modified incorporate additional uncertainty due change? We begin by summarizing physical causes changes flooding and then discuss common methods design context uncertainty. find that although science operates across aleatory, epistemic deep uncertainty, engineering practitioners generally only aleatory associated with natural variability through standards-based approaches. A review existing literature reveals hydrology do not always reflect used estimation, been many jurisdictions around world now incorporating guidance. conclude brings signals a need shift towards more flexible planning approaches, future effort should focus providing information supports range practice. This article is part discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification short-duration rainfall extremes flash risks'.

Language: Английский

Citations

90
A new intelligence approach based on GIS-based Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and metaheuristic optimization for predicting flash flood susceptible areas at high-frequency tropical typhoon area DOI

Dieu Tien Bui,

Nhat‐Duc Hoang, Tien Dat Pham

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 575, P. 314 - 326

Published: May 16, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

88
Global Observations and CMIP6 Simulations of Compound Extremes of Monthly Temperature and Precipitation DOI Creative Commons

Yi Wu,

Chiyuan Miao, Ying Sun

et al.

GeoHealth, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 5(5)

Published: May 1, 2021

Abstract Compound climate extremes, such as events with concurrent temperature and precipitation have significant impacts on the health of humans ecosystems. This paper aims to analyze temporal spatial characteristics compound extremes monthly precipitation, evaluate performance sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models in simulating investigate their future changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results show a increase frequency warm (warm/dry warm/wet) but decrease cold (cold/dry cold/wet) during 1985–2014 relative 1955–1984. observed upward trends over China are much higher than those worldwide period interest. A multi‐model ensemble (MME) CMIP6 performs well warm/wet correlation coefficients between MME observations above 0.86. Under scenarios, simulations substantial rises declines extremes. Globally, average 30‐yr is projected for 2070–2099 by 18.53, 34.15, 48.79, 59.60 SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, SSP5‐8.5, respectively. Inter‐model uncertainties frequencies considerably global occurrences 3.82 times warm/dry especially high Amazon Tibetan Plateau.

Language: Английский

Citations

87