Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Aug. 13, 2020

Abstract The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify with global warming, which likely increases the intensity of extreme precipitation events and risk flooding. changes, however, often differ from theorized expectation in water‐holding capacity atmosphere warmer conditions, especially when water availability limited. Here, relationships changes flood intensities for end twenty-first century spatial seasonal are quantified. Results show an intensification over all climate regions as dry wet regions. Similarly, there increase availability. connection between becomes stronger become less extreme.

Language: Английский

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Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Nature, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 573(7772), P. 108 - 111

Published: Aug. 28, 2019

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenic shift towards higher risk of flash drought over China

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Oct. 11, 2019

Flash droughts refer to a type of that have rapid intensification without sufficient early warning. To date, how will the flash drought risk change in warming future climate remains unknown due diversity definition, unclear role anthropogenic fingerprints, and uncertain socioeconomic development. Here we propose new method for explicitly characterizing events, find exposure over China increase by about 23% ± 11% during middle this century under scenario with medium challenge. Optimal fingerprinting shows induced increased greenhouse gas concentrations accounts 77% 26% upward trend frequency, population is also an important factor enhancing southernmost humid regions. Our results suggest traditional drought-prone regions would expand given human-induced risk. are widely discussed scientific community since onset 2012 USA. Here, authors model temporal frequency potential events next 80 years.

Language: Английский

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Revisiting the recent European droughts from a long-term perspective

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: June 18, 2018

Early 21st-century droughts in Europe have been broadly regarded as exceptionally severe, substantially affecting a wide range of socio-economic sectors. These extreme events were linked mainly to increases temperature and record-breaking heatwaves that influencing since 2000, combination with lack precipitation during the summer months. Drought propagated through all respective compartments hydrological cycle, involving low runoff prolonged soil moisture deficits. What if these recent are not previously thought? Using reconstructed over last 250 years, we show although 2003 2015 may be most driven by deficits vegetation period, their spatial extent severity at long-term European scale less uncommon. This conclusion is evident our concurrent investigation three major drought types - meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture) (grid-scale runoff) droughts. Additionally, unprecedented drying trends for corresponding frequency also observed, reflecting recurring periods high temperatures. Since intense extended reemerge future, study highlights concerns regarding impacts such when combined persistent decrease moisture.

Language: Английский

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The Relative Importance of Different Flood‐Generating Mechanisms Across Europe

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 55(6), P. 4582 - 4593

Published: May 14, 2019

Abstract Inferring the mechanisms causing river flooding is key to understanding past, present, and future flood risk. However, a quantitative spatially distributed overview of that drive across Europe currently unavailable. In addition, studies classify catchments according their flood‐driving often identify single mechanism per location, although multiple typically contribute We introduce new method uses seasonality statistics estimate relative importance extreme precipitation, soil moisture excess, snowmelt as drivers. Applying this European data set maximum annual flow dates in several thousand reveals from 1960 2010 relatively few floods were caused by rainfall peaks. Instead, most concurrence heavy precipitation with high antecedent moisture. For catchments, these has not substantially changed during past five decades. Exposing regional underlying Europe's costly natural hazard first step identifying processes require attention research.

Language: Английский

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On the choice of calibration metrics for “high-flow” estimation using hydrologic models

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 23(6), P. 2601 - 2614

Published: June 17, 2019

Abstract. Calibration is an essential step for improving the accuracy of simulations generated using hydrologic models. A key modeling decision selecting performance metric to be optimized. It has been common use squared error metrics, or normalized variants such as Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), based on idea that their squared-error nature will emphasize estimates high flows. However, we conclude NSE-based model calibrations actually result in poor reproduction high-flow events, annual peak flows are used flood frequency estimation. Using three different types calibrate two hydrological models at a daily step, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM), evaluate ability simulate events 492 basins throughout contiguous United States. The metrics investigated (1) NSE, (2) Kling–Gupta (KGE) its variants, (3) flow bias (APFB), where latter application-specific focuses As expected, APFB produces best estimates; however, other high-flow-related poor. In contrast, NSE results more than 20 % worse, primarily due tendency underestimate observed variability. On hand, KGE better from owing improved time series (mean variance), with only slight degradation respect related particularly when non-standard weighting components used. Stochastically ensemble residuals show improve regardless deterministic performances. fidelity streamflow dynamics deterministically calibrated still important, it may (for right reasons). Overall, this work highlights need deeper understanding behavior design relation desired goals calibration.

Language: Английский

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Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 22(2), P. 1017 - 1032

Published: Feb. 7, 2018

Abstract. There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K with respect to the pre-industrial period) rivers a contributing area more than 1000 km2. The analysis based on multi-model ensemble 45 simulations three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, RCP8.5), five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) state-of-the-art (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB). High-resolution model results available at spatial resolution km across pan-European domain daily temporal resolution. Low river flow described as percentile streamflow exceeded 90 % time. It determined separately for each GCM/HM combination scenario. show low-flow signal amplifies increasing levels. decrease Mediterranean region, while they increase Alpine Northern regions. In Mediterranean, level from −12 1.5 K, compared baseline period 1971–2000, −35 largely due projected decreases annual precipitation. contrast, amplified +22 (1.5 K) +45 (3 region changes snow accumulation. significant regions relatively large signals higher warming. However, it not possible distinguish climate-induced differences between 2 because (1) inter-annual variability which prevents distinguishing statistical estimates period-averaged given combination, (2) uncertainty expressed by signal-to-noise ratio. contribution GCMs generally one HMs. HMs cannot be neglected. Alpine, Northern, regions, partly those representations processes such snow, soil moisture evapotranspiration. Based results, recommended use multiple impact studies embrace information well its single members adaptation process.

Language: Английский

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Joint Trends in Flood Magnitudes and Spatial Extents Across Europe

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 47(7)

Published: April 1, 2020

The magnitudes of river floods in Europe have been observed to change, but their alignment with changes the spatial coverage or extent individual has not clear. We analyze flood and extents for 3,872 hydrometric stations across over past five decades classify each based on antecedent weather conditions. find positive correlations between 95% stations. In central British Isles, association increasing trends is due a magnitude-extent correlation precipitation soil moisture along shift generating processes. highlights importance transnational risk management.

Language: Английский

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The rise of compound warm-season droughts in Europe

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 7(6)

Published: Feb. 3, 2021

In the last decades, impactful European warm-season droughts have been steadily increasing, substituting other drought types.

Language: Английский

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An extremeness threshold determines the regional response of floods to changes in rainfall extremes

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(1)

Published: Aug. 26, 2021

Precipitation extremes will increase in a warming climate, but the response of flood magnitudes to heavier precipitation events is less clear. Historically, there little evidence for systematic increases magnitude despite observed extremes. Here we investigate how change warming, using large initial-condition ensemble simulations with single climate model, coupled hydrological model. The model chain was applied historical (1961–2000) and warmer future (2060–2099) conditions 78 watersheds Bavaria, region comprising headwater catchments Inn, Danube Main River, thus representing an area expressed heterogeneity. For majority catchments, identify ‘return interval threshold’ relationship between increases: at return intervals above this threshold, further extreme frequency clearly yield increased magnitudes; below modulated by land surface processes. We suggest that threshold behaviour can reconcile climatological perspectives on changing risk climate. Germany rainfall processes not above,

Language: Английский

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