Distribution of important medicinal plant species in Nepal under past, present, and future climatic conditions

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 146, P. 109879 - 109879

Published: Jan. 12, 2023

Climate change is causing shifts in the habitat, distribution, ecology, and phenology of Himalayan plants. These changes are predicted to continue, jeopardizing survival medicinal plant species local livelihoods that rely on them. We analyzed present future diversity distribution influenced by different climate scenarios, calculated climatic niche using ensemble modeling (eSDM). compiled 1041 (N) geospatial data seven high-value Nepal: Aconitum spicatum (n = 100), Allium wallichii 151), Bergenia ciliata 48), Nardostachys jatamansi 121), Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora 94), Paris polyphylla 310) Valeriana 217) including over 85 % from field surveys rest literature online database. used bioclimatic variables Models for Interdisciplinary Research (MIROC) version MIROC6, selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 year 2050 2070 modeling. found elevation, mean diurnal annual temperature ranges (BIO2 BIO7), precipitation warmest coldest quarters (BIO18 BIO19) be most high weight cofactors projecting potential plants Nepal. Results showed suitable range would increase concentrate mountainous areas central Nepal, but decline (sub)tropical temperate areas, suggesting both in-situ ex-situ conservation practices, respectively.

Language: Английский

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Climate change extinctions

Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 386(6726), P. 1123 - 1128

Published: Dec. 5, 2024

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections produce a quantitative global assessment of climate extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, freshwater ecosystems; inhabiting South America, Australia, New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, has contributed an increasing proportion observed since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which protect first be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic halted reversed.

Language: Английский

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Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Priority Protection for Cupressus gigantea on the Tibetan Plateau

Plants, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(6), P. 896 - 896

Published: March 20, 2024

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Machine learning ensemble species distribution modeling of an endangered arid land tree Tecomella undulata: a global appraisal

Arabian Journal of Geosciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(2)

Published: Jan. 31, 2023

Language: Английский

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Ecological niche modeling based on ensemble algorithms to predicting current and future potential distribution of African swine fever virus in China

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Sept. 16, 2022

Abstract African swine fever (ASF) is a tick-borne infectious disease initially described in Shenyang province China 2018 but now currently present nationwide. ASF has high infectivity and mortality rates, which often results transportation trade bans, expenses to prevent control the, hence causing huge economic losses negative impact on the Chinese pig farming industry. Ecological niche modeling long been adopted epidemiology of diseases, particular vector-borne diseases. This study aimed establish an ecological model combined with data from incidence rates August December 2021 order predict areas for virus (ASFV) distribution China. The was developed R software using biomod2 package ensemble techniques. Environmental topographic variables included were mean diurnal range (°C), isothermality, temperature wettest quarter precipitation seasonality (cv), warmest quarter(mm), coldest (mm), normalized difference vegetation index, wind speed (m/s), solar radiation (kJ /day), elevation/altitude (m). Contribution quarter, were, respectively, 47.61%, 28.85%, 10.85%, 7.27% (according CA), accounted over 80% contribution related variables. According prediction, most revealed as suitable are located southeast coast or central region China, wherein environmental conditions soft ticks’ survival. In contrast, unsuitable ASFV associated arid climate poor vegetation, less conducive survival, transmission. addition, prediction spatial suitability future suggests narrower spread. Thus, designed herein could be used conceive more efficient prevention measure against according different geographical locations

Language: Английский

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Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5

Published: Sept. 20, 2022

Climate change is one of the significant factors influencing global species redistribution. As a result, better understanding species' possible range in future climate conditions needed. Therefore, this study compiles geographic occurrence data wild olive sub-species, Olea europaea subsp. cuspidate , and projected potential distribution models current scenarios. This using ensemble modeling predicted that will undergo decrease habitat suitability under climatic with contraction ranging from ca. 41 42% RCP4.5 2050 to about 56 61% RCP8.5 2070 for committee averaging weighted mean, respectively. More specifically, there be regions southeastern part United States North America; coastal South majority eastern Africa; parts Spain, France, Italy, Greece Europe; Yemen Saudi Arabia; Pakistan southern China Asia; southwestern Australia when compared suitability. The results could extremely valuable identifying cultivation hotspots effective restoration protection lineage conditions.

Language: Английский

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Contrasting range changes of Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) species under future climate change in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains Region

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 155(3), P. 1927 - 1939

Published: Nov. 16, 2023

Language: Английский

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Altitudinal gradient drives significant changes in soil physico-chemical and eco-physiological properties of Rhododendron anthopogon: a case study from Himalaya

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: April 28, 2023

The best natural laboratories for studying the ecological responses of plants are high-altitude areas like Himalaya, where many gradients coexist on a relatively small spatial scale. Here, we investigate effect soil physico-chemical and eco-physiological properties broadleaf evergreen woody shrub Rhododendron anthopogon D.Don along an altitudinal gradient in Kashmir Himalaya. We collected leaf samples analysis, respectively, at five different sites (3,220–3,908 m). Our results demonstrate significant difference between parameters gradient. A correlation was observed studied altitude. Principal component analysis revealed that all were grouped into four clusters according to altitude, suggesting more pronounced findings showed infiltration capacity increased with which would be helpful growth development R. . also variations parameters, demonstrating their critical involvement adapting harsh environment alpine regions Therefore, present study adds our understanding has sufficient plasticity, should favorable its survival future climates, offering adaptive advantage expanding range shortly.

Language: Английский

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The Atlantic forest is a potentially climatic suitable habitat for four Neotropical Myrtaceae species through time

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 80, P. 102490 - 102490

Published: Jan. 21, 2024

Myrtaceae is one of the most species-rich botanical families and a critical floristic component in regions with high diversity, such as Atlantic Forest Cerrado. In Neotropical region, Myrteae main tribe includes diverse genera Eugenia, Myrcia, Psidium, Myrceugenia, Campomanesia. Here, we investigated climatic suitability selected species - Campomanesia guazumifolia, C. xanthocarpa, Eugenia pyriformis, Psidium cattleyanum across South America. This study spans present day, three historical periods, two future climate change scenarios. Our modeling analysis (ENSEMBLE) included environmental variables applied at times evaluated. results suggest that temperature seasonality precipitation driest month were influenced species. The lato sensu potentially suitable habitat for these four over time, which matches center diversification richness Myrtaceae, where they coexist share habitats sympatrically. Historical glaciation events have retraction expansion distribution, ultimately contributing to their current coexistence select neotropical ecoregions. projections indicate areas similar models despite different effects change. key maintaining biodiversity time. Therefore, it necessary combine other approaches (e.g., evolutionary, ecological, genetic studies) deeply understand evolutionary history this its protection, maintenance harbors.

Language: Английский

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The impact of climate change on the suitable habitats of three wild peonies in mountain-plain intersection zone of the Yellow River Basin

Plant Ecology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 7, 2025

Language: Английский

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