Ecological Niche Modelling Approaches: Challenges and Applications in Vector-Borne Diseases

Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 8(4), P. 187 - 187

Published: March 25, 2023

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose a major threat to human and animal health, with more than 80% of the global population being at risk acquiring least one VBD. Being profoundly affected by ongoing climate change anthropogenic disturbances, modelling approaches become an essential tool assess compare multiple scenarios (past, present future), further geographic transmission VBDs. Ecological niche (ENM) is rapidly becoming gold-standard method for this task. The purpose overview provide insight use ENM We have summarised some fundamental concepts common VBDS, then focused critical view on number crucial issues which are often disregarded when niches Furthermore, we briefly presented what consider most relevant uses dealing Niche VBDs far from simple, there still long way improve. Therefore, expected be useful benchmark in future research.

Language: Английский

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What can we learn from the five-year African swine fever epidemic in Asia?

Frontiers in Veterinary Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Sept. 28, 2023

Today’s global swine industry is exposed to the unprecedented threat of African fever (ASF). Asia, site most recent epidemics, could serve as a huge viral reservoir for rest world given severity damage, industry, and high volume trade with other countries around world. As majority ASF notifications in Asia today originate from pig farms, movement live pigs associated pork products are considered critical control points disease management. Particularly, small-scale or backyard farms low biosecurity levels major risk factors. Meanwhile, wild boars account notified cases some regions, which makes epidemiological scenario different that Asian countries. such, current epidemic situation higher factors differ widely between these A variety studies on have been conducted many valuable insights obtained Asia; nevertheless, overall picture still unclear. The purpose this review provide an accurate across focusing each subregion comprehensively explain outbreak. knowledge gained epidemics experienced over past 5 years would be useful areas already infected, such Europe, well non-affected address preventive measures. To end, includes two aspects: descriptive analytical based publicly available databases showing trends, individualized at subregional level literature.

Language: Английский

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Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Geographical Distribution Patterns of Luculia pinceana Hook. f. since the Last Glacial Maximum

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 253 - 253

Published: Jan. 29, 2024

In this study, we utilized 76 natural distribution points and six environmental variables to establish a detailed species prediction process for Luculia pinceana Hook. f. Our aim was explore the potential patterns of L. since Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) its response climate change, providing scientific basis conservation strategies suitable introduction wild populations. This model enabled pinceana’s geographical across five temporal phases: LGM, Mid-Holocene (MH), present, two future scenarios. Additionally, pinpointed dominant factors influencing these patterns. The results indicate following: (1) temperature annual range (bio7), minimum coldest month (bio6), precipitation wettest (bio13) are that determine pinceana. areas where bio7 is less than 22.27 °C, bio6 above 3.34 bio13 exceeds 307.65 mm, suitability highest. (2) Under current climatic conditions, highly area accounts 64 × 104 km2, which half total area. habitats concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangxi, southern Nyingchi Tibet, coastal South China. (3) During LGM MH, were essentially consistent with scenarios, no significant southward shift distribution. lack major migration during could be attributed finding refuge situ mountainous areas. (4) various emission habitat expected experience expansion, generally shifting towards northwest higher latitudes. anticipated global warming likely provide more favorable conditions survival It recommended follows direction centroid migration, facilitated by vegetation management, it has ecological economic benefits greater extent.

Language: Английский

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Preparation of Monoclonal Antibodies against the Viral p54 Protein and a Blocking ELISA for Detection of the Antibody against African Swine Fever Virus

Viruses, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(11), P. 2335 - 2335

Published: Oct. 25, 2022

African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes a highly contagious viral disease in domestic and wild pigs, leading to serious economic losses. As there are no vaccines or drugs available, early accurate diagnosis eradiation of infected animals the most important measures for ASFV prevention control. Therefore, improvement available diagnostic assays development novel effective techniques required. This study is devoted generating new detection platform blocking monoclonal antibody-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) against p54 protein. Seven antibodies recombinant protein were produced four epitopes identified. Three ELISAs developed with 6A5 6F9 mAbs labeled HRP, respectively, which 6A5/6F9-based ELISA displayed best performance, an AUC 0.986, sensitivity 98.36% specificity 92.36% ROC analysis. Moreover, it has excellent agreement at 96.59% (198/205) when compared commercial (kappa value = 0.920). The method also high repeatability, CV <10%, cross reaction serum PRV, PRRSV, CSFV, PCV2 SVA. indicates that accuracy good specificity, suitable detection, field surveillance epidemiological studies.

Language: Английский

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Ecological niche model transferability of the white star apple (Chrysophyllum albidum G. Don) in the context of climate and global changes

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Feb. 10, 2023

Chrysophyllum albidum is a forest food tree species of the Sapotaceae family bearing large berries nutrition, sanitary, and commercial value in many African countries. Because its socioeconomic importance, C. threatened at least by human pressure. However, we do not know to what extent climate change can impact distribution or whether it possible introduce other tropical regions. To resolve our concerns, decided model spatial species. We then used SDM package for data modeling R compare predictive performances algorithms among most commonly used: three machine learning (MaxEnt, boosted regression trees, random forests) (generalized linear model, generalized additive models, multivariate adaptive spline). performed transfers Asia Latin America. At scale Africa, predictions with respect Maxent under Africlim (scenarios RCP 4.5 8.5, horizon 2055) MIROCES2L SSP245 SSP585, 2060) showed that suitable areas albidum, within threshold values contributing variables will extend mostly West, East, Central, Southern Africa as well East Madagascar. As opposed Maxent, future BRT RF were unrealistic known ecology albidum. All except (for only), consistent predicting successful introduction America Asia, both present future. therefore recommend cultivation predicted along vegetation inventories order discover likely, sister vicarious be new Science. more than realistic Africa. authors an update models comply sixth Assessment Report (AR6) IPCC.

Language: Английский

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Change in habitat suitability of the invasive Snowflake coral (Carijoa riisei) during climate change: An ensemble modelling approach

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 76, P. 102145 - 102145

Published: May 24, 2023

Language: Английский

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Distribution and Conservation Gaps of Nautilus pompilius: A Study Based on Species Distribution Models

Diversity, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(4), P. 243 - 243

Published: March 28, 2025

Nautilus pompilius, a ‘living fossil’ of the oceans, is crucial to study biological evolution and paleontology. However, species’ habitat has been severely impacted by global climate change. Based on this, species distribution models conservation gap analyses were conducted under current future scenarios. The results revealed that habitats for N. pompilius primarily located in coastal waters Australia, Indonesia, Philippines. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, suitable projected decline 4.8% 2050s 5.3% 2100s. This loss expected intensify higher emission scenarios, particularly RCP 8.5, where reduction could reach 15.4% Conservation analysis indicates while nearly 30% fall within marine protected areas (MPAs), many vulnerable regions remain unprotected. Future MPA establishment should strategically address these gaps, such as Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, southern edge Timor Sea. provides critical insights into patterns needs emphasizing urgent need targeted efforts protect this endangered species.

Language: Английский

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Early warning and management of invasive crop pests under global warming: estimating the global geographical distribution patterns and ecological niche overlap of three Diabrotica beetles

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 31(9), P. 13575 - 13590

Published: Jan. 23, 2024

Language: Английский

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Maximum Entropy Analysis of Bird Diversity and Environmental Variables in Nanjing Megapolis, China

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(5), P. 2139 - 2139

Published: March 5, 2024

Against the background of global climate change and urbanization, biodiversity birds is facing unprecedented threats. In this paper, taking Nanjing megapolis as an example, based on distribution sites 79 bird species 17 environmental variables, MaxEnt model was used to simulate diversity, most important variables were analyzed. The results show that (1) suitable for simulation potential diversity in megapolis; (2) areas with highest mainly distributed mountains hills where forests are located; (3) five affecting ranked maximum temperature warmest month (MTWM) > Digital Elevation Model (DEM) precipitation wettest (PWM) distance nearest forest (DF) Fractional Vegetation Cover index (FVC), MTWM, PWM, DF being negatively correlated whereas FVC DEM exhibited positive correlations diversity; (4) contribution rates three types follows: habitat meteorological disturbance variables. Sufficient habitats should be maintained cities, disturbances from human activities reduced achieve harmonious coexistence humans animals context thereby promoting sustainable development.

Language: Английский

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Effect of climate change on the habitat suitability of the relict species Zelkova carpinifolia Spach using ensembled species distribution modelling

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Nov. 14, 2024

Zelkova carpinifolia is a Tertiary relict tree distributed in Hyrcanian and Colchic forests. Most of its habitat has been destroyed the last century. This study aimed to model potentially suitable areas for from past future. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Future (2061–2080) models include 19 bioclimatic variables CCSM4 global circulation Pearson correlation coefficient was used assess collinearity between ten were selected distribution modelling. Habitat suitability estimated using Biodiversity Modelling (BIOMOD) ensemble modelling method by combining results algorithm R package "biomod2". area under curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) true skills statistics (TSS) calculated evaluate performance models. contributions environmental separately each model. According obtained, most effective variable species temperature seasonality (Bio4). revealed that survived refuge western Asia during LGM. These have remained largely unchanged even expanded. future predict habitats will narrow forests south Caspian Sea more conditions be found around Caucasus. Given increasing destruction these valuable plant due human activities expected negative impacts climate change future, it important develop policies strategies protection carpinifolia's habitat, creation nature reserves, sustainability.

Language: Английский

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