Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: Oct. 5, 2021

Abstract Over the last decade, world warmed by 0.25 °C, in-line with roughly linear trend since 1970s. Here we present updated analyses showing that this seemingly small shift has led to emergence of heat extremes would be virtually impossible without anthropogenic global warming. Also, record rainfall have continued increase worldwide and, on average, 1 in 4 records decade can attributed climate change. Tropical regions, comprised vulnerable countries typically contributed least change, continue see strongest extremes.

Language: Английский

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An inconvenient misconception: Climate change is not the principal driver of biodiversity loss

Conservation Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 15(3)

Published: Jan. 20, 2022

Abstract The current perception that climate change is the principal threat to biodiversity at best premature. Although highly relevant, it detracts focus and effort from primary threats: habitat destruction overexploitation. We collated causes of vertebrate extinctions since 1900, information for amphibia, birds, mammals IUCN Red List, scrutinized others’ attempts compare with commensurate anthropogenic threats. In each analysis, none arguments founded on change's wide‐ranging effects are as urgent those loss Present conservation efforts must refocus these issues. Conserving ecosystems by focusing major threats not only protects but available, economically viable, global strategy reverse change.

Language: Английский

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Global increase in wildfire potential from compound fire weather and drought

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: March 25, 2022

Abstract Wildfire can cause significant adverse impacts to society and the environment. Weather climate play an important role in modulating wildfire activity. We explore joint occurrence of global fire weather meteorological drought using a compound events framework. show that, for much globe, burned area increases when periods heightened with dry antecedent conditions. Regions associated disasters, such as southern Australia western USA, are prone experiencing years weather. Such have increased frequency driven primarily by rather than changes precipitation. El Ni $$\tilde{{{{\rm{n}}}}}$$ ñ o Southern Oscillation is widespread, spatially compounding In Northern Hemisphere, La signature evident, whereas tropics and, lesser degree, Hemisphere. Other modes regional patterns atmospheric circulation also important, depending on region. that lengths seasons eastern North America substantially since 2000, raising likelihood overlapping these regions. These cross-hemispheric may be linked o, although sea-surface temperature magnitudes small. Instead, it likely anthropogenic change primary driver changes.

Language: Английский

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Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(8), P. 518 - 534

Published: July 25, 2023

Language: Английский

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Distance sampling surveys reveal 17 million vertebrates directly killed by the 2020’s wildfires in the Pantanal, Brazil

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Dec. 16, 2021

Abstract Anthropogenic factors have significantly influenced the frequency, duration, and intensity of meteorological drought in many regions globe, increased frequency wildfires is among most visible consequences human-induced climate change. Despite fire role determining biodiversity outcomes different ecosystems, can cause negative impacts on wildlife. We conducted ground surveys along line transects to estimate first-order impact 2020 vertebrates Pantanal wetland, Brazil. adopted distance sampling technique densities number dead 39,030 square kilometers affected by fire. Our estimates indicate that at least 16.952 million were killed immediately fires Pantanal, demonstrating such an event wet savanna ecosystems. The case also reminds us cumulative widespread burning would be catastrophic, as recurrence may lead impoverishment ecosystems disruption their functioning. To overcome this unsustainable scenario, it necessary establish proper biomass fuel management avoid caused over ecosystem services.

Language: Английский

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Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(8), P. 1420 - 1425

Published: June 24, 2024

Language: Английский

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Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 1331 - 1342

Published: June 22, 2023

A major concern for the world’s ecosystems is possibility of collapse, where landscapes and societies they support change abruptly. Accelerating stress levels, increasing frequencies extreme events strengthening intersystem connections suggest that conventional modelling approaches based on incremental changes in a single may provide poor estimates impact climate human activities ecosystems. We conduct experiments four models simulate abrupt Chilika lagoon fishery, Easter Island community, forest dieback lake water quality—representing with range anthropogenic interactions. Collapses occur sooner under levels primary but additional stresses and/or inclusion noise all bring collapses substantially closer to today by ~38–81%. discuss implications further research need humanity be vigilant signs are degrading even more rapidly than previously thought. Current models, stress, have limited ability anticipate ecosystem due activities. Experiments simulating interactions show how much earlier can happen.

Language: Английский

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Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Nov. 22, 2022

Abstract Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed forested regions around world. Using a large sample daily events hourly climate data, here we show all global forest biomes responds strongly predictably to exceedance thresholds atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum vapour pressure deficit. The climatology deficit can therefore be reliably used predict risk under projected future climates. We find change is lead widespread increases risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical for on every continent 2100 rising emissions scenarios. Escalating threatens catastrophic carbon losses Amazon major population health impacts from wildfire smoke south Asia east Africa.

Language: Английский

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Increasing aridity causes larger and more severe forest fires across Europe

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 29(6), P. 1648 - 1659

Published: Dec. 14, 2022

Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades. This trend may, however, reverse under ongoing climate change, particularly areas not limited by fuel availability (i.e. temperate and boreal forests). Investigating a novel remote sensing dataset of 64,448 fire events that occurred between 1986 2020, we find power-law relationship maximum size area burned, indicating large fires contribute disproportionally to activity Europe. We further show robust positive correlation summer vapor pressure deficit both (R2 = .19) burn severity .12). Europe's regimes are thus highly sensitive changes future climate, with the probability for extreme more than doubling end century. Our results suggest change will challenge current management approaches could undermine ability forests provide ecosystem services society.

Language: Английский

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The conservation impacts of ecological disturbance: Time‐bound estimates of population loss and recovery for fauna affected by the 2019–2020 Australian megafires

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 31(10), P. 2085 - 2104

Published: March 1, 2022

Abstract Aim After environmental disasters, species with large population losses may need urgent protection to prevent extinction and support recovery. Following the 2019–2020 Australian megafires, we estimated recovery in fire‐affected fauna, inform conservation status assessments management. Location Temperate subtropical Australia. Time period 2019–2030 beyond. Major taxa terrestrial freshwater vertebrates; one invertebrate group. Methods From > 1,050 taxa, selected 173 whose distributions substantially overlapped fire extent. We proportion of each taxon’s distribution affected by fires, using severity aquatic impact mapping, new mapping. Using expert elicitation informed evidence responses previous wildfires, local fires varying severity. combined spatial data estimate overall loss trajectories, thus indicate potential eligibility for listing as threatened, or uplisting, under legislation. Results that megafires caused, contributed to, declines make 70–82 eligible threatened; another 21–27 uplisting. If so‐listed, this represents a 22–26% increase statutory lists threatened vertebrates spiny crayfish, uplisting 8–10% taxa. Such changes would cause an abrupt worsening underlying trajectories vertebrates, measured Red List Indices. predict 54–88% assessed will not recover pre‐fire size within 10 years/three generations. Main conclusions suggest have worsened prospects many species. Of 91 recommended listing/uplisting consideration, 84 are now formal review through national processes. Improving predictions about taxon vulnerability empirical on responses, reducing likelihood future catastrophic events mitigating their impacts biodiversity, critical.

Language: Английский

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