Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure: Methods, benefits, and research needs DOI Creative Commons
Yating Zhang, Bilal M. Ayyub, Juan F. Fung

et al.

Resilient Cities and Structures, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 103 - 113

Published: March 1, 2024

In the last decade, detection and attribution science that links climate change to extreme weather events has emerged as a growing field of research with an increasing body literature. This paper overviews methods for event (EEA) discusses new insights EEA provides infrastructure adaptation. We found can inform stakeholders about current risk, support vulnerability-based hazard-based adaptations, assist in development cost-effective adaptation strategies, enhance justice equity allocation resources. As engineering practice shifts from retrospective approach proactive, forward-looking risk management strategy, be used together projections comprehensiveness decision making, including planning preparing unprecedented events. Additionally, assessment more useful when exposure vulnerability communities past are analyzed, future changes probability evaluated. Given large uncertainties inherent projections, should examine sensitivity design model uncertainties, adapt practice, building codes, uncertain conditions. While this study focuses on planning, also tool informing enhancing decisions related mitigation.

Language: Английский

Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective DOI Creative Commons
Ben Clarke, Friederike E. L. Otto, Rupert Stuart-Smith

et al.

Environmental Research Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1(1), P. 012001 - 012001

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and harms experienced on ground by people, property, nature. It therefore allows disentangling of different drivers from human-induced change hence provides valuable information adapt assess loss damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out reach. This due limitations in science, including capacity for studying types as well geographical heterogeneity both impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge influences five hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), impacts recent events each type, thus degree which various are attributable change. For instance, heat extremes have increased likelihood intensity worldwide with tens thousands deaths directly attributable. likely a significant underestimate limited availability lower- middle-income countries. Meanwhile, cyclone rainfall storm surge height individual across all basins. In North Atlantic basin, amplified that, combined, caused half trillion USD damages. At same time, severe droughts many parts world not To advance our understanding present-day developments several levels required. These include improving recording around world, coverage studies regions, using explore contributions non-climate impacts.

Language: Английский

Citations

320
The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021 DOI Creative Commons
Rachel H. White, Sam Anderson, James F. Booth

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Feb. 9, 2023

In late June 2021 a heatwave of unprecedented magnitude impacted the Pacific Northwest region Canada and United States. Many locations broke all-time maximum temperature records by more than 5 °C, Canadian national record was broken 4.6 with new 49.6 °C. Here, we provide comprehensive summary this event its impacts. Upstream diabatic heating played key role in anomaly. Weather forecasts provided advanced notice event, while sub-seasonal showed an increased likelihood heat extreme lead times 10-20 days. The impacts were catastrophic, including hundreds attributable deaths across Northwest, mass-mortalities marine life, reduced crop fruit yields, river flooding from rapid snow glacier melt, substantial increase wildfires-the latter contributing to landslides months following. These examples can learn vivid depiction how climate change be so devastating.

Language: Английский

Citations

198
Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions DOI Creative Commons
Ploy Achakulwisut, Peter Erickson, Céline Guivarch

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Sept. 13, 2023

The mitigation scenarios database of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report is an important resource for informing policymaking energy transitions. However, there a large variety models, scenario designs, and resulting outputs. Here we analyse consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or below regarding speed, trajectory, feasibility different fossil fuel reduction pathways. In 1.5 no limited overshoot, global coal, oil, natural gas supply (intended all uses) decline average by 95%, 62%, 42%, respectively, from 2020 2050, but long-term role highly variable. Higher-gas pathways are enabled higher carbon capture storage (CCS) dioxide removal (CDR), likely associated inadequate model representation regional CO2 capacity technology adoption, diffusion, path-dependencies. If CDR constrained limits derived expert consensus, respective modelled reductions become 99%, 70%, 84%. Our findings suggest need adopt unambiguous near- benchmarks in production use alongside other climate targets.

Language: Английский

Citations

160
Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985 DOI
Jun Rentschler, Paolo Avner, Mattia Marconcini

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 622(7981), P. 87 - 92

Published: Oct. 4, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

156
The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it DOI Creative Commons
Marleen de Ruiter, Anne F. Van Loon

iScience, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 25(8), P. 104720 - 104720

Published: July 4, 2022

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of increasing complexity disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability suggest methodological approaches to assess include dynamics in our risk assessments, learning from compound multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, socio-ecological research communities. We argue for changed perspective, starting with circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. identify three types vulnerability: (1) underlying vulnerability, (2) changes during long-lasting disasters, (3) compounding societal shocks. conclude there is great potential capture using qualitative model-based methods, both reproducing historic projecting future provide examples narratives, agent-based models, system dynamics.

Language: Английский

Citations

101
Bi2S3-based photocatalysts: Properties, synthesis, modification strategies, and mechanistic insights towards environmental sustainability and green energy technologies DOI
Akshay Chawla, Anita Sudhaik,

Sonu Sonu

et al.

Coordination Chemistry Reviews, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 529, P. 216443 - 216443

Published: Jan. 28, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Unprecedented droughts are expected to exacerbate urban inequalities in Southern Africa DOI
Maria Rusca, Elisa Savelli, Giuliano Di Baldassarre

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 98 - 105

Published: Dec. 22, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

47
Emerging pathways to sustainable economic development: An interdisciplinary exploration of resource efficiency, technological innovation, and ecosystem resilience in resource-rich regions DOI
Feipeng Wang, Wing‐Keung Wong, Zheng Wang

et al.

Resources Policy, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 85, P. 103747 - 103747

Published: June 20, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

35
Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change DOI Open Access
Friederike E. L. Otto

Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 48(1), P. 813 - 828

Published: Aug. 22, 2023

Within the past decade, attribution of extreme weather events and their impacts has enabled scientists, public, policymakers alike to connect real-world experiences with scientific understanding anthropogenic climate change. Attribution studies recent have formed a new important line evidence in most Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report present-day IPCC using different methods event been assessed together, highlighting that these differences are smaller than academic discourse suggests. This development raised two research questions science needs answer: First, how do we formally combine statements highly conditional probabilistic assessments change alters likelihood intensity events? Second, under what circumstances individual still necessary extent existing provide enough information answer societal questions? Furthermore, leaves gaps, particularly countries Global South, leading ethical around need requirement policy contexts, informing adaptation loss damage role vulnerability.

Language: Английский

Citations

35
Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate DOI Creative Commons
Daniel Hoyer, James S. Bennett, Jenny Reddish

et al.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 378(1889)

Published: Sept. 18, 2023

Climate variability and natural hazards like floods earthquakes can act as environmental shocks or socioecological stressors leading to instability suffering throughout human history. Yet, societies experience a wide range of outcomes when facing such challenges: some suffer from social unrest, civil violence complete collapse; others prove more resilient maintain key functions. We currently lack clear, generally agreed-upon conceptual framework evidentiary base explore what causes these divergent outcomes. Here, we discuss efforts develop through the Crisis Database (CrisisDB) programme. illustrate that impact is mediated extant cultural, political economic structures evolve over extended timescales (decades centuries). These generate high resilience major shocks, facilitate positive adaptation, or, alternatively, undermine collective action lead even societal collapse. By exposing ways different have reacted crises their lifetime, this help identify factors complex social-ecological interactions either bolster contemporary climate shocks. This article part theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs science culture'.

Language: Английский

Citations

34