Present and future interannual variability in wildfire occurrence: a large ensemble application to the United States DOI Creative Commons
Theodore Keeping, Boya Zhou, Wenjia Cai

et al.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: April 16, 2025

Realistic projections of future wildfires need to account for both the stochastic nature climate and randomness individual fire events. Here we adopt a probabilistic approach predict current probabilities using large ensemble 1,600 modelled years representing different realisations during modern reference period (2000–2009) characterised by an additional 2°C global warming. This allows us characterise distribution contiguous United States, including extreme when number fires or length season exceeded those seen in short observational record. We show that spread is higher areas with high mean fires, but there variation this relationship regions proportionally variability Great Plains southwestern States. The principal drivers simulated are related either interannual fuel production atmospheric moisture controls on drying, distinct geographic patterns which each these dominant control. also shows considerable length, such as States being vulnerable very long seasons years. increases warming, even more across three quarters Warming has strong effect likelihood less fire-prone northern experience It amplifying annual occurrence already western area availability control substantially These analyses demonstrate importance taking stochasticity characterising wildfire regimes, utility ensembles making under change.

Language: Английский

A General Model for the Seasonal to Decadal Dynamics of Leaf Area DOI Creative Commons
Boya Zhou, Wenjia Cai, Ziqi Zhu

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

Leaf phenology, represented at the ecosystem scale by seasonal dynamics of leaf area index (LAI), is a key control on exchanges CO2, energy, and water between land atmosphere. Robust simulation phenology thus important for both dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) land-surface representations in climate Earth System models. There no general agreement how should be modeled. However, recent theoretical advance posits universal relationship time course "steady-state" gross primary production (GPP) LAI-that is, mutually consistent LAI GPP that would pertain if weather conditions were held constant. This theory embodies concept leaves displayed when their presence most beneficial to plants, combined with reciprocal via (a) Beer's law dependence LAI, (b) requirement support allocation carbon leaves. Here we develop prognostic model, combining this approach parameter-sparse terrestrial model (the P model) achieves good fit derived from flux towers all biomes scheme based predicts maximum as lesser an energy-limited rate (maximizing GPP) water-limited use available precipitation). The exponential moving average method used represent lag modeled steady-state LAI. captures satellite-derived across site levels. Since outperforms 15 DGVMs TRENDY project, it could provide basis improved representation leaf-area

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Present and future interannual variability in wildfire occurrence: a large ensemble application to the United States DOI Creative Commons
Theodore Keeping, Boya Zhou, Wenjia Cai

et al.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: April 16, 2025

Realistic projections of future wildfires need to account for both the stochastic nature climate and randomness individual fire events. Here we adopt a probabilistic approach predict current probabilities using large ensemble 1,600 modelled years representing different realisations during modern reference period (2000–2009) characterised by an additional 2°C global warming. This allows us characterise distribution contiguous United States, including extreme when number fires or length season exceeded those seen in short observational record. We show that spread is higher areas with high mean fires, but there variation this relationship regions proportionally variability Great Plains southwestern States. The principal drivers simulated are related either interannual fuel production atmospheric moisture controls on drying, distinct geographic patterns which each these dominant control. also shows considerable length, such as States being vulnerable very long seasons years. increases warming, even more across three quarters Warming has strong effect likelihood less fire-prone northern experience It amplifying annual occurrence already western area availability control substantially These analyses demonstrate importance taking stochasticity characterising wildfire regimes, utility ensembles making under change.

Language: Английский

Citations

0