An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 369(6509), P. 1383 - 1387

Published: Sept. 10, 2020

Much of our understanding Earth's past climate comes from the measurement oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals existing records lack temporal resolution age control needed to thoroughly categorize states Cenozoic era study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite foraminifer developed laboratories. Four states-Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse-are identified on basis distinctive response astronomical forcing depending greenhouse gas concentrations polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis nonlinear behavior encoded record reveals key role that volume plays predictability

Language: Английский

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Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 119(34)

Published: Aug. 1, 2022

Microbial communities are found throughout the biosphere, from human guts to glaciers, soil activated sludge. Understanding statistical properties of such diverse can pave way elucidate common mechanisms ...Multiple ecological forces act together shape composition microbial communities. Phyloecology approaches—which combine phylogenetic relationships between species with community ecology—have potential disentangle but often ...

Language: Английский

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The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change

Nature, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 580(7804), P. 496 - 501

Published: April 8, 2020

Language: Английский

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Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

AMBIO, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 50(4), P. 834 - 869

Published: March 14, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding responding to such change global sustainability resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of current situation where people nature are dynamically intertwined embedded biosphere, placing shocks extreme events as part this dynamic; humanity become major force shaping future Earth system whole; scale pace human dimension have caused climate change, loss biodiversity, growing inequalities, resilience deal with uncertainty surprise. Taken together, actions challenging biosphere foundation prosperous development civilizations. Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls transformative towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts cultural repertoires, well diverse portfolio active stewardship support highlighted essential parts transformations.

Language: Английский

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Phanerozoic paleotemperatures: The earth’s changing climate during the last 540 million years

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 215, P. 103503 - 103503

Published: Jan. 13, 2021

Language: Английский

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Past climates inform our future

Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 370(6517)

Published: Nov. 6, 2020

The future in the past A major cause of uncertainties climate projections is our imprecise knowledge how much warming should occur as a result given increase amount carbon dioxide atmosphere. Paleoclimate records have potential to help us sharpen that understanding because they record such wide variety environmental conditions. Tierney et al. review recent advances data collection, statistics, and modeling might better understand rising levels atmospheric will affect climate. Science , this issue p. eaay3701

Language: Английский

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The Miocene: The Future of the Past

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 36(4)

Published: Dec. 24, 2020

Abstract The Miocene epoch (23.03–5.33 Ma) was a time interval of global warmth, relative to today. Continental configurations and mountain topography transitioned toward modern conditions, many flora fauna evolved into the same taxa that exist climate dynamic: long periods early late glaciation bracketed ∼2 Myr greenhouse interval—the Climatic Optimum (MCO). Floras, faunas, ice sheets, precipitation, p CO 2 , ocean atmospheric circulation mostly (but not ubiquitously) covaried with these large changes in climate. With higher temperatures moderately (∼400–600 ppm), MCO has been suggested as particularly appropriate analog for future scenarios, assessing predictive accuracy numerical models—the models are used simulate Yet, conditions have proved difficult reconcile models. This implies either missing positive feedbacks models, lack knowledge past forcings, or need re‐interpretation proxies, which might mitigate model‐data discrepancy. Our understanding climatic, biogeochemical, oceanic on broad spatial temporal scales is still developing. New records documenting physical, chemical, biotic aspects Earth system emerging, together provide more comprehensive this important interval. Here, we review state‐of‐the‐art climate, circulation, biogeochemical cycling, sheet dynamics, adaptation research inferred through proxy observations modeling studies.

Language: Английский

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Atmospheric CO₂ over the Past 66 Million Years from Marine Archives

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 49(1), P. 609 - 641

Published: March 23, 2021

Throughout Earth's history, CO 2 is thought to have exerted a fundamental control on environmental change. Here we review and revise reconstructions from boron isotopes in carbonates carbon organic matter over the Cenozoic—the past 66 million years. We find close coupling between climate throughout Cenozoic, with peak levels of ∼1,500 ppm Eocene greenhouse, decreasing ∼500 Miocene, falling further into ice age world Plio–Pleistocene. Around two-thirds Cenozoic drawdown explained by an increase ratio ocean alkalinity dissolved inorganic carbon, likely linked change balance weathering outgassing, remaining one-third due changing temperature major ion composition. Earth system sensitivity explored may vary different time intervals. The record highlights truly geological scale anthropogenic change: Current were last seen around 3 years ago, cuts emissions are required prevent return Miocene or coming century. ▪ Myr alkenones reviewed re-evaluated. estimates proxies show agreement, yielding consistent picture evolution ocean-atmosphere Cenozoic. coupled Myr, providing broad constraints sensitivity. Twenty-first-century potential not since much warmer climates distant past.

Language: Английский

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Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic

Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 47(1), P. 343 - 371

Published: Oct. 17, 2022

Rapid Arctic environmental change affects the entire Earth system as thawing permafrost ecosystems release greenhouse gases to atmosphere. Understanding how much carbon will be released, over what time frame, and relative emissions of dioxide methane is key for understanding impact on global climate. In addition, response vegetation in a warming climate has potential offset at least some accelerating feedback from carbon. Temperature, organic carbon, ground ice are regulators determining cycle. Together, these encompass services relevant society well people living region help determine landscape-level this changing

Language: Английский

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The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: methodologies for selection, compilation and analysis of latest Paleocene and early Eocene climate proxy data, incorporating version 0.1 of the DeepMIP database

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 12(7), P. 3149 - 3206

Published: July 25, 2019

Abstract. The early Eocene (56 to 48 million years ago) is inferred have been the most recent time that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeded 1000 ppm. Global mean temperatures were also substantially warmer than those of present day. As such, study climate provides insight into how a super-warm Earth system behaves and offers an opportunity evaluate models under conditions high greenhouse gas forcing. Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) systematic model–model model–data intercomparison three Paleogene slices: latest Paleocene, Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) climatic optimum (EECO). A previous article outlined model experimental design for simulations. In this article, we outline methodologies be used compilation analysis proxy data, primarily proxies temperature CO2. This paper establishes protocols concerted coordinated effort compile records across wide geographic range. resulting “atlas” will constrain selected intervals provide insights mechanisms control these warm states. We version 0.1 database, in anticipation expanded subsequent publications.

Language: Английский

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