Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States

BMJ Open, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(2), P. e043863 - e043863

Published: Feb. 1, 2021

Objectives: We aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on transmission COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status, human mobility status. Design: A retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted. Setting: use data daily symptom-onset cases 100 Chinese cities confirmed 1,005 U.S. counties. Participants: total 69,498 in China 740,843 are used calculating effective reproductive numbers. Primary outcome measures: Regression number (R value). Results: Statistically significant negative correlations found between temperature/relative value) both Conclusions: Higher higher potentially suppress COVID-19. Specifically, an increase by 1 degree Celsius associated with a reduction R value 0.026 (95% CI [-0.0395,-0.0125]) 0.020 [-0.0311, -0.0096]) U.S.; 1% 0.0076 [-0.0108,-0.0045]) 0.0080 [-0.0150,-0.0010]) Therefore, potential alone not strong enough stop pandemic.

Language: Английский

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Challenges in control of COVID-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 376(1829)

Published: May 31, 2021

Early assessments of the growth rate COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but cases recorded multiple countries, more robust inferences could be made. Using streams methods, we estimated that, when unconstrained, European confirmed doubled on average every 3 days (range 2.2–4.3 days) Italian hospital intensive care unit admissions 2–3 days; values that are significantly lower than 5–7 dominating early published literature. Furthermore, showed impact physical distancing interventions was typically not seen until at least 9 after implementation, during which time grow eightfold. We argue such temporal patterns critical precise estimates time-insensitive basic reproduction number R 0 for initiating interventions, combination fast long detection delays explains struggle countries' outbreak response better large alone. One year from first reporting these results, numbers continue dominate media public discourse, unconstrained remain essential planning worst-case scenarios, still key informing relaxation re-implementation interventions. This article is part theme issue ‘Modelling shaped pandemic UK’.

Language: Английский

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Environmental Factors Influencing COVID-19 Incidence and Severity

Annual Review of Public Health, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 43(1), P. 271 - 291

Published: Jan. 4, 2022

Emerging evidence supports a link between environmental factors—including air pollution and chemical exposures, climate, the built environment—and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility severity. Climate, pollution, environment have long been recognized to influence viral infections, studies established similar associations with COVID-19 outcomes. More limited links exposures COVID-19. Environmental factors were found through four major interlinking mechanisms: increased risk of preexisting conditions associated severity; immune system impairment; survival transport; behaviors that increase exposure. Both data methodologic issues complicate investigation these relationships, including reliance on coarse surveillance data; gaps in mechanistic studies; predominance ecological designs. We evaluate strength for environment–COVID-19 relationships discuss actions might simultaneously address pandemic, determinants health, health disparities.

Language: Английский

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Role of meteorological factors in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: June 14, 2021

Abstract Improved understanding of the effects meteorological conditions on transmission SARS-CoV-2, causative agent for COVID-19 disease, is needed. Here, we estimate relationship between air temperature, specific humidity, and ultraviolet radiation SARS-CoV-2 in 2669 U.S. counties with abundant reported cases from March 15 to December 31, 2020. Specifically, quantify associations daily mean estimates reproduction number ( R t ) calculate fraction attributable these conditions. Lower temperature (within 20–40 °C range), lower were significantly associated increased . The 3.73% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 3.66–3.76%), 9.35% eCI: 9.27–9.39%), 4.44% 4.38–4.47%), respectively. In total, 17.5% was factors. fractions factors generally higher northern than southern counties. Our findings indicate that cold dry weather low levels are moderately transmissibility, humidity playing largest role.

Language: Английский

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Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(25)

Published: June 8, 2021

As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world, it is increasingly important understand factors that influence its transmission. Seasonal variation driven by responses changing environment has been shown affect transmission intensity of several coronaviruses. However, impact on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains largely unknown, and thus seasonal a source uncertainty in forecasts SARS-CoV-2 Here we address this issue assessing association temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, population density with estimates rate (R). Using data from United States, explore correlates US states using comparative regression integrative epidemiological modeling. We find policy intervention ("lockdown") reductions individuals' mobility are major predictors rates, but, their absence, lower temperatures higher densities correlated increased Our results show summer weather cannot be considered substitute for mitigation policies, but autumn winter may lead an increase absence interventions or behavioral changes. outline how information improve forecasting COVID-19, reveal future dynamics, inform policies.

Language: Английский

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A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8, P. 100185 - 100185

Published: July 30, 2021

Language: Английский

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One Year of SARS-CoV-2: How Much Has the Virus Changed?

Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 10(2), P. 91 - 91

Published: Jan. 26, 2021

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a worldwide crisis with profound effects on both public health and the economy. In order to combat COVID-19 pandemic, research groups have shared viral genome sequence data through Global Initiative Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). Over past year, ≈290,000 full SARS-CoV-2 proteome sequences been deposited in GISAID. Here, we used these assess rate of nonsynonymous mutants over entire proteome. Our analysis shows that proteins are mutating at substantially different rates, most exhibiting little mutational variability. As anticipated, our calculations capture previously reported mutations arose first months such as D614G (Spike), P323L (NSP12), R203K/G204R (Nucleocapsid), but they also identify more recent mutations, A222V L18F (Spike) A220V among others. comprehensive temporal geographical analyses show two distinct periods mutation rates: December 2019 July 2020 August 2020. Notably, some rates differ by geography, primarily during latter half Europe. Furthermore, structure-based molecular provides an exhaustive assessment context current set 3D structures available for proteins. This emerging sequence-to-structure insight is beginning illuminate site-specific (in)tolerance virus continues spread around globe.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and mortality in the United States and Europe

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: March 8, 2023

Abstract Determining whether SARS-CoV-2 exhibits seasonality like other respiratory viruses is critical for public health planning. We evaluated COVID-19 rates follow a seasonal pattern using time series models. used decomposition to extract the annual component of case, hospitalization, and mortality from March 2020 through December 2022 United States Europe. Models were adjusted country-specific stringency index account confounding by various interventions. Despite year-round disease activity, we identified spikes in approximately November April all outcomes countries. Our results support employing preventative measures against SARS-CoV-2, such as administering booster vaccines similar timeframe those place influenza. Whether certain high-risk individuals may need more than one vaccine dose each year will depend on factors durability severe illness levels activity.

Language: Английский

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Current insights and future perspectives of ultraviolet radiation (UV) exposure: Friends and foes to the skin and beyond the skin

Environment International, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 185, P. 108535 - 108535

Published: Feb. 27, 2024

Ultraviolet (UV) radiation is ubiquitous in the environment, which has been classified as an established human carcinogen. As largest and outermost organ of body, direct exposure skin to sunlight or UV can result sunburn, inflammation, photo-immunosuppression, photoaging even cancers. To date, there are tactics protect by preventing reducing amount skin. Nevertheless, deciphering essential regulatory mechanisms may pave way for therapeutic interventions against UV-induced disorders. Additionally, light considered beneficial specific skin-related conditions medical therapy. Recent evidence indicates that biological effects extend beyond include treatment inflammatory diseases, solid tumors certain abnormal behaviors. This review mainly focuses on Moreover, novel findings other organs systems also summarized. through affects organism remain be fully elucidated achieve a more comprehensive understanding its effects.

Language: Английский

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Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021

Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 21(3), P. 275 - 301

Published: Feb. 21, 2022

Abstract The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol under United Nations Environment Programme evaluates effects on environment and human health that arise from changes in stratospheric ozone layer concomitant variations ultraviolet (UV) radiation at Earth’s surface. current update is based scientific advances have accumulated since our last assessment (Photochem Photobiol Sci 20(1):1–67, 2021). We also discuss how climate change affects depletion radiation, change. resulting interlinking depletion, UV are assessed terms air quality, carbon sinks, ecosystems, health, natural synthetic materials. further highlight potential impacts biosphere extreme events occurring with increasing frequency as a consequence These other interactive examined respect to benefits its Amendments providing life Earth by controlling production various substances contribute both

Language: Английский

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