European Journal of Operational Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
Language: Английский
The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 21(6), P. 793 - 802
Published: March 20, 2021
The dynamics of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are complicated by age-dependent factors, changing levels infection, and the relaxation non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as perceived risk declines, necessitating use mathematical models. Our aims were to epidemiological data from UK together with estimates vaccine efficacy predict possible long-term under planned rollout.
Language: Английский
Citations
571
Physics Reports, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 913, P. 1 - 52
Published: Feb. 15, 2021
Language: Английский
Citations
485
Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)
Published: Sept. 30, 2021
Abstract Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and stochastic importation to investigate effect potential variants concern (VOCs). Calibrating situation in England May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories putative VOCs are wide-ranging dependent on their immune capability, introduction timing postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. demonstrate that VOC substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, properties, can generate wave infections hospitalisations comparable winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, variant is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke infection would not be revealed until control measures further relaxed.
Language: Английский
Citations
107
Journal of Medical Internet Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 23(6), P. e28253 - e28253
Published: June 2, 2021
Before the advent of an effective vaccine, nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and lockdowns, have been primary measures to combat COVID-19 pandemic. Such are highly when there is high population-wide adherence, which requires information on current risks posed by pandemic alongside a clear exposition rules guidelines in place.Here we analyzed online news media coverage COVID-19. We quantified total volume articles, their sentiment polarization, leading subtopics act reference inform future communication strategies.We collected 26 million articles from front pages 172 major sources 11 countries (available at SciRide). Using topic detection, identified COVID-19-related content quantify proportion received 2020. The analysis tool Vader was employed stratify emotional polarity reporting. Further detection performed reveal themes reporting respective polarizations.We found that accounted for approximately 25.3% all front-page between January October Sentiment English-language revealed overall not exclusively negatively polarized, suggesting wide heterogeneous Within this heterogenous coverage, 16% (or 4% articles) can be classified citing issues death, fear, or crisis.The goal public health increase understanding distancing maximize impact governmental policy. extent quantity quality different channels (eg, media, government pages, news) influence remains established. Here conclude quarter 2020 covered COVID-19, indicative overload. In capacity, our data form quantitative basis informing strategies along traditional minimize while vaccination rolled out.
Language: Английский
Citations
95
Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)
Published: Aug. 19, 2022
Abstract England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence spread Omicron variants late 2021. In response to rising cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated offered all adults in England. Using model fitted more than 2 years epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics infections, hospital admissions deaths December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change waning immunity assess effectiveness mitigating disease between October 2021 If no new emerge, is expected decline, low remaining coming months. The extent which projected resurges later 2022 depends largely on assumptions around some extent, behaviour, seasonality.
Language: Английский
Citations
51
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 128, P. 132 - 139
Published: Jan. 3, 2023
The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers.The proportion positive samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to 2014-2019 period using FluNet database. Random forests were used determine predictors from demographical, weather, preparedness, incidence, response characteristics. Regression trees classify observations according these predictors.During pandemic, decline prepandemic levels global but heterogeneous across space time. It more than 50% for 311 376 trimesters-countries even 99% 135. incidence preparedness two most important decline. Europe North America initially showed limited despite high restrictions; however, there a strong afterward temperate countries, where social restrictions high; countries factors low. "zero-COVID" experienced greatest decline.Our findings set stage interpreting resurgence worldwide.
Language: Английский
Citations
34
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(44)
Published: Oct. 27, 2023
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of behavioral drivers in epidemic dynamics. With relaxation mandated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) formerly place to decrease transmission, such as mask-wearing or social distancing, adherence an NPI is now result individual decision-making. To study these coupled dynamics, we embed a game-theoretic model for within epidemiological model. When disease endemic, find that our multiple (but none concurrently stable) equilibria: one each with zero, complete, partial adherence. Surprisingly, equilibrium adherence, number infections independent transmission rate. Therefore, regime, change rate pathogen e.g., due another (mandated) new variant, no effect on endemic infection levels. On other hand, show vaccination successfully decreases levels, and, unexpectedly, also reduces susceptibles at when there From perspective, highly effective NPIs lead most As this effectiveness decreases, partially initially increases population-level especially if risk high enough. However, completely ineffective results Furthermore, identify parameter regions where incentives may not align those society whole. Overall, findings illustrate complexities can arise behavioral–epidemiological feedback and suggest appropriate measures avoid more pessimistic outcomes.
Language: Английский
Citations
26
Physical review. E, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 104(2)
Published: Aug. 19, 2021
The spreading dynamics of an epidemic and the collective behavioral pattern population over which it spreads are deeply intertwined latter can critically shape outcome former. Motivated by this, we design a parsimonious game-theoretic behavioral--epidemic model, in interplay realistic factors shapes co-evolution individual decision-making epidemics on network. Although such is real-world, existing models schematize behavior as instantaneously reactive, thus being unable to capture human long term. Our model offers unified framework predict complex emergent phenomena, including successful responses, periodic oscillations, resurgent outbreaks. also allows assess effectiveness different policy interventions ensuring response that successfully eradicates outbreak. Two case studies, inspired real-world diseases, presented illustrate potentialities proposed model.
Language: Английский
Citations
44
eLife, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 10
Published: Nov. 8, 2021
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations social activity are often assumed to be persistent, is, constant time, here we discuss consequences dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating stochastic dynamics into traditional epidemiological models, demonstrate emergence a new long timescale governing epidemic, broad agreement with empirical data. Our model captures multiple features real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and waves, which transiently suppressed due nature activity. The existence interplay between epidemic provides unifying picture how fast-paced typically will transition endemic state.
Language: Английский
Citations
42
Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)
Published: Aug. 22, 2022
Control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic in England has relied on a combination vaccination non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Some these NPIs are extremely costly (economically socially), so it was important to relax promptly without overwhelming already burdened health services. The eventual policy Roadmap four relaxation steps throughout 2021, taking from lock-down cessation all restrictions social interaction. In series six documents generated models assessed potential risk each step. Here we show that model projections reliable estimation medium-term hospital admission trends, with data points up September 2021 generally lying within our 95% prediction intervals. greatest uncertainties modelled scenarios came vaccine efficacy estimates against novel variants, assumptions about human behaviour face changing risk.
Language: Английский
Citations
36