Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA DOI Creative Commons

Giulia Luebben,

Gilberto González‐Parra,

Bishop Cervantes

et al.

Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 20(6), P. 10828 - 10865

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

<abstract><p>In this paper we study different vaccination strategies that could have been implemented for the early COVID-19 pandemic. We use a demographic epidemiological mathematical model based on differential equations in order to investigate efficacy of variety under limited vaccine supply. number deaths as metric measure each these strategies. Finding optimal strategy programs is complex problem due large variables affect outcomes. The constructed takes into account risk factors such age, comorbidity status and social contacts population. perform simulations assess performance more than three million which vary depending priority group. This focuses scenario corresponding period USA, but can be extended other countries. results show importance designing an save human lives. extremely amount factors, high dimensionality nonlinearities. found low/moderate transmission rates prioritizes groups, rates, groups with CFRs. provide valuable information design programs. Moreover, help scientific guidelines future pandemics.</p></abstract>

Language: Английский

A Global Map of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance Rates per Country: An Updated Concise Narrative Review DOI Creative Commons
Malik Sallam, Mariam Alsanafi, Mohammed Sallam

et al.

Journal of Multidisciplinary Healthcare, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: Volume 15, P. 21 - 45

Published: Jan. 1, 2022

Abstract: The delay or refusal of vaccination, which defines vaccine hesitancy, is a major challenge to successful control COVID-19 epidemic. huge number publications addressing hesitancy necessitates periodic review provide concise summary acceptance rates worldwide. In the current narrative review, data on were retrieved from surveys in 114 countries/territories. East and Southern Africa (n = 9), highest rate was reported Ethiopia (92%), while lowest Zimbabwe (50%). West/Central 13), Niger (93%), Cameroon (15%). Asia Pacific 16), Nepal Vietnam (97%), Hong Kong (42%). Eastern Europe/Central 7), Montenegro (69%) Kazakhstan (64%), Russia (30%). Latin America Caribbean 20), Mexico (88%), Haiti (43%). Middle East/North (MENA, n 22), Tunisia Iraq (13%). Western/Central Europe North 27), Canada (91%) Norway (89%), Cyprus Portugal (35%). ≥ 60% seen 72/114 countries/territories, compared 42 countries/territories with between 13% 59%. phenomenon appeared more pronounced MENA, Central Asia, Africa. More studies are recommended Africa, address intentions general public get vaccination. Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, hesitance, resistance, rejection, willingness vaccinate, intention vaccinate

Language: Английский

Citations

209
Multiplexed CRISPR-based microfluidic platform for clinical testing of respiratory viruses and identification of SARS-CoV-2 variants DOI Creative Commons
Nicole L. Welch, Meilin Zhu, Catherine Hua

et al.

Nature Medicine, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(5), P. 1083 - 1094

Published: Feb. 7, 2022

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has demonstrated a clear need for high-throughput, multiplexed and sensitive assays detecting severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) other viruses their emerging variants. Here, we present cost-effective virus variant detection platform, called microfluidic Combinatorial Arrayed Reactions Multiplexed Evaluation of Nucleic acids (mCARMEN), which combines CRISPR-based diagnostics microfluidics with streamlined workflow clinical use. We developed the mCARMEN panel to test up 21 viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, coronaviruses both influenza strains, its diagnostic-grade performance on 525 patient specimens in an academic setting 166 setting. further enable identification 6 SARS-CoV-2 lineages, Delta Omicron, evaluated it 2,088 near-perfect concordance sequencing-based classification. Lastly, implemented combined Cas13 Cas12 approach that enables quantitative measurement A viral copies samples. platform high-throughput surveillance multiple variants simultaneously, enabling rapid

Language: Английский

Citations

198
Comparison of Patients Infected With Delta Versus Omicron COVID-19 Variants Presenting to Paris Emergency Departments DOI
Donia Bouzid, Benoît Visseaux, Christian Kassasseya

et al.

Annals of Internal Medicine, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 175(6), P. 831 - 837

Published: March 14, 2022

At the end of 2021, B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 variant (Omicron) wave superseded B.1.617.2 (Delta) wave.To compare baseline characteristics and in-hospital outcomes patients with infection Delta versus Omicron in emergency department (ED).Retrospective chart reviews.13 adult EDs academic hospitals Paris area from 29 November 2021 to 10 January 2022.Patients a positive reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test result for identification.Main outcome measures were clinical biological at ED presentation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, mortality.A total 3728 had RT-PCR during study period; 1716 who determination (818 898 Omicron) included. Median age was 58 years, 49% women. Patients infected younger (54 vs. 62 years; difference, 8.0 years [95% CI, 4.6 11.4 years]), lower rate obesity (8.0% 12.5%; 4.5 percentage points [CI, 1.5 7.5 points]), more vaccinated (65% 39% 1 dose 22% 11% 3 doses), dyspnea (26% 50%; 23.6 19.0 28.2 higher discharge home (59% 37%; 21.9 [-26.5 -17.1 points]). Compared Delta, independently associated risk ICU admission (adjusted 8.4 14.4 ventilation 3.6 1.7 5.6 mortality 4.2 2.0 6.5 points]).Patients COVID-19 illness no excluded.Compared variant, different patterns better outcomes, including survival.None.

Language: Английский

Citations

178
Neutralizing immunity in vaccine breakthrough infections from the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants DOI Creative Commons
Venice Servellita, Abdullah M. Syed, Mary Kate Morris

et al.

Cell, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 185(9), P. 1539 - 1548.e5

Published: March 18, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

162
Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics DOI Creative Commons
Louise Dyson, Edward M. Hill, Sam Moore

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Sept. 30, 2021

Abstract Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and stochastic importation to investigate effect potential variants concern (VOCs). Calibrating situation in England May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories putative VOCs are wide-ranging dependent on their immune capability, introduction timing postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. demonstrate that VOC substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, properties, can generate wave infections hospitalisations comparable winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, variant is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke infection would not be revealed until control measures further relaxed.

Language: Английский

Citations

108
Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic DOI Creative Commons
Sam Moore, Edward M. Hill, Louise Dyson

et al.

Nature Medicine, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(11), P. 2416 - 2423

Published: Oct. 27, 2022

Abstract The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. protection provided by vaccines booster doses offered a method of mitigating clinical outcomes mortality. However, the end 2021, global distribution was highly heterogeneous, with some countries gaining over 90% coverage in adults, whereas others reached less than 2%. In this study, we used an age-structured model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, matched to national data from 152 investigate impact different potential vaccine sharing protocols that attempted address inequity. We quantified effects implemented rollout strategies on spread SARS-CoV-2, subsequent burden disease emergence novel variants. found greater would have lowered total disease, any associated increases infections previously vaccine-rich could been mitigated reduced relaxation non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results reinforce health message, pertinent future pandemics, proportional wealth, rather need, may be detrimental all.

Language: Английский

Citations

82
Acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination at different hypothetical efficacy and safety levels in ten countries in Asia, Africa, and South America DOI Creative Commons
Francesco Rosiello, Samsul Anwar, Amanda Yufika

et al.

Narra J, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 1(3)

Published: Dec. 1, 2021

Vaccine hesitancy, defined as the reluctance or rejection in receiving a vaccine despite its availability, represents major challenge to global health efforts aiming control ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding possible factors correlated with hesitancy using refined well-informed approach can be helpful address phenomenon. The current study aimed evaluate acceptance rates four hypothetical scenarios of varying levels efficacy and safety profiles ten Asian, African South American countries. These included: 95% 20% side effects (Vaccine A), 75% 5% B); C) 50% D). This used self-administered online survey that was distributed during February–May 2021. total number respondents 1337 countries residence follows: India (21.1%), Pakistan (12.9%), Sudan (11.2%), Nigeria (9.3%), Iran (8.2%), Bangladesh Brazil (7.9%), Chile (7.7%), Tunisia (7.6%), Egypt (6.2%). overall for vaccination were variable based on degrees 55.6% C, 58.3% D, 74.0% A 80.1% B. highest observed followed by across different scenarios. lowest reported low (20% effects), scenario (50% efficacy). revealed potential effect intention get vaccination. At same level, higher possibility caused large drop rate. indicates importance accurate communication regarding attitude towards intentions vaccinated. Regional differences Middle East/North showing displaying rates.

Language: Английский

Citations

80
The potential of genomics for infectious disease forecasting DOI Open Access
Jessica E. Stockdale, Pengyu Liu, Caroline Colijn

et al.

Nature Microbiology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 7(11), P. 1736 - 1743

Published: Oct. 20, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

50
COVID-19 endgame: From pandemic to endemic? Vaccination, reopening and evolution in low- and high-vaccinated populations DOI
Elisha B. Are,

Yexuan Song,

Jessica E. Stockdale

et al.

Journal of Theoretical Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 559, P. 111368 - 111368

Published: Nov. 24, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

50
Fitness, growth and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants DOI
Erik Volz

Nature Reviews Genetics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 24(10), P. 724 - 734

Published: June 16, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

37