Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
127(10)
Published: May 4, 2022
Abstract
Stratospheric
injections
of
carbonaceous
aerosols
and
combustion
gases
by
extreme
wildfires
have
become
increasingly
common.
Recent
“megafires,”
particularly
large
intense
fires,
delivered
particulate
burdens
to
the
lower
stratosphere
comparable
those
moderate
volcanic
eruptions.
The
2017
Canadian
megafire
generated
four
Pyrocumulonimbi
(pyroCbs),
injecting
up
≈0.3
Tg
smoke
in
stratosphere.
Even
more
extreme,
2019/2020
Australian
event
produced
a
pyroCb
activity
resulting
stratospheric
intrusions
≈1
Tg.
To
understand
their
contrasting
behavior,
we
present
global
climate
simulations
atmospheric
response
these
events,
applying
informed
remote
observations.
Model
outcomes,
compared
satellite
data
transport,
reproduce
reasonably
well
initial
plume
rise,
at
0.2–0.3
km/day,
attaining
heights
≈20
km
Canada
above
30
Australia.
Global
dispersal
occurs
within
about
3
weeks
both
cases,
consistent
with
Smoke
removal
timescales,
≈5
months
for
megafire,
agree
measurements.
During
observations
indicate
three
times
as
large,
models
predict
comparatively
longer
lifetimes,
≈16
months.
After
latter
event,
optical
depths
radiative
cooling
achieved
values
close
measured
following
Pinatubo
eruption.
Sensitivity
tests
model
assumptions
indicate,
accord
prior
studies,
that
burden,
injection
heights,
black
carbon
content
can
determine
evolution
possible
impacts.
An
empirical
relation
between
peak
plumes
lifetimes
is
derived
help
assess
impacts
on
stratosphere,
Earth
system.
Journal of Geographical Research,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
6(3), P. 1 - 17
Published: June 29, 2023
As
humanity
has
been
polluting
the
atmosphere
with
greenhouse
gases,
planet
is
getting
warmed
up
which
triggering
frequency
and
intensity
of
extreme
events
like
heat
waves,
dry
conditions,
wildfires,
cyclones,
tornadoes,
lightning,
massive
flooding
all
over
Earth.
There
considerable
evidence
that
concentration
especially
CO2
steadily
increased
in
as
a
result
indiscriminate
use
fossil
fuels
around
world
particularly
during
last
70
years.
The
glaciers
high
mountain
polar
regions
are
diminishing
fast,
sea
levels
rising,
food
production
being
affected
severely
certain
parts
world.
In
fact,
changing
climate
currently
become
one
major
threats
to
survival
civilization.
scientific
communities
warning
emergency
requesting
decision
makers
promptly
respond
act
sustain
life
on
To
deliver
net
zero
emissions
by
year
2050,
whole
must
phase
out
technologies
such
coal-powered
thermal
plants
diesel/petrol/gasoline-powered
vehicles
release
abundant
amounts
other
gases
into
invest
development
clean
energies
hydel,
wind,
solar,
space-solar,
nuclear
energies.
This
transition
low
carbon
economy
help
these
together
hydrogen
fuel,
fuel
cells,
electric
vehicles,
plantations
expected
take
our
Earth
safe
zone
coming
20-30
Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
3(3)
Published: April 23, 2024
Abstract
Increases
in
wildfire
activity
and
the
resulting
impacts
have
prompted
development
of
high-resolution
behavior
models
for
forecasting
fire
spread.
Recent
progress
using
satellites
to
detect
locations
further
provides
opportunity
use
measurements
toward
improving
spread
forecasts
from
numerical
through
data
assimilation.
This
work
develops
a
physics-informed
approach
inferring
history
satellite
measurements,
providing
necessary
information
initialize
coupled
atmosphere–wildfire
measured
state.
The
arrival
time,
which
is
time
reaches
given
spatial
location,
acts
as
succinct
representation
wildfire.
In
this
work,
conditional
Wasserstein
generative
adversarial
network
(cWGAN),
trained
with
WRF–SFIRE
simulations,
used
infer
active
data.
cWGAN
produce
samples
likely
times
distribution
detections.
Samples
produced
by
are
assess
uncertainty
predictions.
tested
on
four
California
wildfires
occurring
between
2020
2022,
predictions
extent
compared
against
airborne
infrared
measurements.
Further,
predicted
ignition
reported
times.
An
average
Sørensen’s
coefficient
0.81
perimeters
an
difference
32
min
suggest
that
method
highly
accurate.
Significance
Statement
To
simulations
physically
consistent
way
based
locations,
it
critical
ensure
state
atmosphere
aligns
at
start
forecast.
If
known,
may
be
develop
atmospheric
matching
determined
process
known
spinup.
paper,
we
present
novel
early
stage
Here,
inference
performed
probabilistic
sense
physics
incorporated
training
derived
model.
Authorea (Authorea),
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: Dec. 16, 2022
Simulating
whole
atmosphere
dynamics,
chemistry,
and
physics
is
computationally
expensive.
It
can
require
high
vertical
resolution
throughout
the
middle
upper
atmosphere,
as
well
a
comprehensive
chemistry
aerosol
scheme
coupled
to
radiation
physics.
An
unintentional
outcome
of
development
one
most
sophisticated
hence
expensive
model
configurations
that
it
often
excludes
broad
community
users
with
limited
computational
resources.
Here,
we
analyze
two
Community
Earth
System
Model
Version
2,
Whole
Atmosphere
Climate
6
(CESM2(WACCM6))
simplified
“middle
atmosphere”
at
nominal
1
2
degree
horizontal
resolutions.
Using
observations,
reanalysis,
direct
comparisons,
find
these
generally
reproduce
climate,
variability,
climate
sensitivity
configuration
chemistry.
While
background
stratospheric
optical
depth
elevated
in
compared
configuration,
comparable
between
all
during
volcanic
eruptions.
For
any
purposes
other
than
those
needing
an
accurate
representation
tropospheric
organic
secondary
aerosols,
deliver
reliable
simulations
35%
86%
fewer
resources
resolution,
respectively.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
127(10)
Published: May 4, 2022
Abstract
Stratospheric
injections
of
carbonaceous
aerosols
and
combustion
gases
by
extreme
wildfires
have
become
increasingly
common.
Recent
“megafires,”
particularly
large
intense
fires,
delivered
particulate
burdens
to
the
lower
stratosphere
comparable
those
moderate
volcanic
eruptions.
The
2017
Canadian
megafire
generated
four
Pyrocumulonimbi
(pyroCbs),
injecting
up
≈0.3
Tg
smoke
in
stratosphere.
Even
more
extreme,
2019/2020
Australian
event
produced
a
pyroCb
activity
resulting
stratospheric
intrusions
≈1
Tg.
To
understand
their
contrasting
behavior,
we
present
global
climate
simulations
atmospheric
response
these
events,
applying
informed
remote
observations.
Model
outcomes,
compared
satellite
data
transport,
reproduce
reasonably
well
initial
plume
rise,
at
0.2–0.3
km/day,
attaining
heights
≈20
km
Canada
above
30
Australia.
Global
dispersal
occurs
within
about
3
weeks
both
cases,
consistent
with
Smoke
removal
timescales,
≈5
months
for
megafire,
agree
measurements.
During
observations
indicate
three
times
as
large,
models
predict
comparatively
longer
lifetimes,
≈16
months.
After
latter
event,
optical
depths
radiative
cooling
achieved
values
close
measured
following
Pinatubo
eruption.
Sensitivity
tests
model
assumptions
indicate,
accord
prior
studies,
that
burden,
injection
heights,
black
carbon
content
can
determine
evolution
possible
impacts.
An
empirical
relation
between
peak
plumes
lifetimes
is
derived
help
assess
impacts
on
stratosphere,
Earth
system.