Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System under Deep Climate Uncertainty DOI Open Access
Srihari Sundar, Flavio Lehner, Nathalie Voisin

et al.

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 16, 2024

Climate change threatens the resource adequacy of future power systems. Existing research and practice lack frameworks for identifying decarbonization pathways that are robust to climate-related uncertainty. We create such an analytical framework, then use it assess robustness alternative achieving 60\% emissions reductions from 2022 levels by 2040 Western U.S. system. Our framework integrates system planning models with 100 climate realizations a large ensemble. drive electricity demand; thermal plant availability; wind, solar, hydropower generation. Among five initial pathways, all exhibit modest significant failures under in 2040, but certain experience significantly less at little additional cost relative other pathways. By extreme realization drives largest across our we produce new pathway has no any realizations. can help planners adapt change, offers unique bridge between energy modelling.

Language: Английский

High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections DOI Creative Commons
Hylke E. Beck, Tim R. McVicar, Noemi Vergopolan

et al.

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Oct. 23, 2023

We introduce Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future conditions. The (encompassing 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990, 1991-2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the 2041-2070 2071-2099) downscaled bias-corrected projections seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). evaluated 67 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) kept a subset 42 with most plausible CO2-induced warming rates. estimate that 1901-1930 to 1991-2020, approximately 5% global land surface (excluding Antarctica) transitioned different major class. Furthermore, we project 1991-2020 2071-2099, will transition class under low-emissions SSP1-2.6 scenario, 8% middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 13% high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario. maps, along associated confidence estimates, underlying monthly air temperature precipitation data, sensitivity metrics CMIP6 models, can be accessed at www.gloh2o.org/koppen .

Language: Английский

Citations

207
Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature DOI Creative Commons
Paul Waidelich, Fulden Batıbeniz, James Rising

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(6), P. 592 - 599

Published: April 17, 2024

Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect annual temperature changes. However, roles precipitation, variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections models with empirical dose-response functions translating shifts in means variability, rainfall patterns precipitation into damage, we show that at +3

Language: Английский

Citations

27
A review of future weather data for assessing climate change impacts on buildings and energy systems DOI
Zhaoyun Zeng, Sang J. Kim, Haochen Tan

et al.

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 212, P. 115213 - 115213

Published: Jan. 20, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6 DOI Creative Commons
David C. Lafferty, R. L. Sriver

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Sept. 30, 2023

Abstract Efforts to diagnose the risks of a changing climate often rely on downscaled and bias-corrected information, making it important understand uncertainties potential biases this approach. Here, we perform variance decomposition partition uncertainty in global projections quantify relative importance downscaling bias-correction. We analyze simple metrics such as annual temperature precipitation averages, well several indices extremes. find that bias-correction contribute substantial local decision-relevant outcomes, though our results are strongly heterogeneous across space, time, metrics. Our can provide guidance impact modelers decision-makers regarding associated with when performing local-scale analyses, neglecting account for these may risk overconfidence full range possible futures.

Language: Английский

Citations

36
Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales DOI
Thomas Laepple, Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel

et al.

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(11), P. 958 - 966

Published: Nov. 1, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

26
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines DOI Creative Commons
Henrique Moreno Dumont Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen

et al.

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(1), P. 29 - 45

Published: Jan. 10, 2024

Abstract. High impact events like Hurricane Sandy (2012) significantly affect society and decision-making around weather/climate adaptation. Our understanding of the potential effects such is limited to their rare historical occurrences. Climate change might alter these an extent that current adaptation responses become insufficient. Furthermore, internal climate variability in also lead slightly different with possible larger societal impacts. Therefore, exploring high under conditions becomes important for (future) assessment. In this study, we create storylines assess compound coastal flooding on critical infrastructure New York City scenarios, including (on storm through sea level rise) (variations storm's intensity location). We find 1 m rise increases average flood volumes by 4.2 times, while maximised precipitation scenarios (internal variability) a 2.5-fold increase volumes. The inland assets low water levels, impacts fewer though levels. diversity hazards demonstrates importance building set relevant those representing variability. integration modelling framework connecting meteorological local provides accessible information can directly be integrated into event assessments.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
High resolution climate change observations and projections for the evaluation of heat-related extremes DOI Creative Commons
Emily Williams, Chris Funk, P. Peterson

et al.

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: March 1, 2024

The Climate Hazards Center Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projection dataset (CHC-CMIP6) was developed to support the analysis of climate-related hazards, including extreme humid heat and drought conditions, over recent past in near-future. Global daily high resolution (0.05°) grids InfraRed Temperature with Stations temperature product, Precipitation precipitation ERA5-derived relative humidity form basis 1983-2016 historical record, from which Vapor Pressure Deficits (VPD) maximum Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGT

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming DOI Creative Commons
Yongxiao Liang, Nathan P. Gillett, Adam H. Monahan

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(6), P. 608 - 614

Published: June 1, 2024

Observational constraint methods based on the relationship between past global warming trend and projected across climate models were used to reduce uncertainties in by Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change. Internal variability eastern tropical Pacific associated with so-called pattern effect weakens this has reduced observed over recent decades. Here we show that regressing out before applying mean as a results higher narrower twenty-first century ranges than other methods. Whereas Change assessed is unlikely exceed 2 °C under low-emissions scenario, our indicate likely same hence, limiting well below will be harder previously anticipated. However, these projections could benefit adaptation planning.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
The biological role of local and global fMRI BOLD signal variability in human brain organization DOI Creative Commons
Giulia Baracchini,

Yigu Zhou,

Jason da Silva Castanheira

et al.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Oct. 23, 2023

Variability drives the organization and behavior of complex systems, including human brain. Understanding variability brain signals is thus necessary to broaden our window into function behavior. Few empirical investigations macroscale signal have yet been undertaken, given difficulty in separating biological sources variance from artefactual noise. Here, we characterize temporal most predominant signal, fMRI BOLD systematically investigate its statistical, topographical neurobiological properties. We contrast acquisition protocols, integrate across histology, microstructure, transcriptomics, neurotransmitter receptor metabolic data, static connectivity, simulated magnetoencephalography data. show that represents a spatially heterogeneous, central property multi-scale multi-modal organization, distinct Our work establishes relevance provides lens on stochasticity spatial scales.

Language: Английский

Citations

15
Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world DOI Creative Commons
Qinxue Gu, Melissa Gervais, Gökhan Danabasoglu

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: May 17, 2024

Abstract Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes internal decadal under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble historical Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future scenarios show that ensemble spread northern sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories these SSTs, arising from differences deep convection among members starting by 2030. We propose stochastically triggered subsequently amplified positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater associated with warming seems necessary for activating feedbacks, accentuating impact external on variability. Further investigation seven additional large ensembles affirms robustness our findings. By monitoring mechanisms real time extending dynamical model predictions after activate, may achieve skillful long-lead effective multiple decades.

Language: Английский

Citations

4