Statistical power and the detection of global change responses: The case of leaf production in old‐growth forests

Ecology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 106(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract Forests sequester a substantial portion of anthropogenic carbon emissions. Many open questions concern how. We address two these questions. Has leaf and fine litter production changed? And what is the contribution old‐growth forests? with long‐term records (≥10 years) total, reproductive, especially foliar from 32 forests. expect increases in forest productivity associated rising atmospheric dioxide concentrations and, cold climates, temperatures. evaluate statistical power our analysis using simulations known temporal trends parameterized sample sizes (in number levels interannual variation observed for each record. Statistical inadequate to detect biologically plausible lasting less than 20 years. Modest characterizes production, more variable phenomena will require even longer global change responses sufficient power. Just four forests have years, provide no evidence increases. Three are central Panama, also wood both components aboveground unchanged over 21–38 The possibility that recent limited deserves attention.

Language: Английский

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Timber harvesting was the most important factor driving changes in vegetation composition, as compared to climate and fire regime shifts, in the mixedwood temperate forests of Temiscamingue since AD 1830

Landscape Ecology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 40(2)

Published: Jan. 20, 2025

Abstract Context The vegetation composition of northeastern North American forests has significantly changed since pre-settlement times, with a marked reduction in conifer-dominated stands, taxonomic and functional diversity. These changes have been attributed to fire regime shifts, logging, climate change. Methods In this study, we disentangled the individual effects these drivers on forest southwestern Quebec from 1830 2000 by conducting retrospective modelling using LANDIS-II landscape model. model was run based history reconstructions, historical timber harvest records, reanalysis data. We compared counterfactual scenarios excluding factors baseline scenario. Results Conclusions Our results indicated that harvesting had greatest impact dynamics over past centuries. absence harvesting, species abundances were largely maintained, preserving key traits like shade tolerance contribute ecosystem resilience. Increased activity during settlement period contributed increase early-successional aspen (Populus tremuloides), but played dominant role. Fire exclusion no influence composition, suggesting mesophication unfolds longer timescales than those captured study. Climate change, characterized modest increases temperature precipitation, minor effect as increased precipitation might mitigated adverse rising temperatures. However, future change is projected become more significant driver composition. findings underscore importance restoration continued research better understand current changes.

Language: Английский

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Responses of soil organic carbon to climate extremes under warming across global biomes

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1), P. 98 - 105

Published: Dec. 22, 2023

Language: Английский

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Understanding sustainability of woody species suitability zones on the Loess Plateau for optimal creation zone selection in response to future climate change

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 375, P. 124239 - 124239

Published: Jan. 29, 2025

Language: Английский

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A global synthesis and conceptualization of the magnitude and duration of soil carbon losses in response to forest disturbances

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 33(1), P. 141 - 150

Published: Oct. 24, 2023

Forest disturbances are increasing around the globe due to changes in climate and management, deteriorating forests' carbon sink strength. Estimates of global forest budgets account for losses plant biomass but often neglect effects on soil organic (SOC). Here, we aimed quantify conceptualize SOC response different disturbance agents a scale.

Language: Английский

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Climate sensitive growth and yield models in Canadian forestry: Challenges and opportunities

The Forestry Chronicle, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 100(1), P. 88 - 106

Published: Feb. 26, 2024

Growth and yield models in forest management planning are used to project future conditions estimate quantities such as wood volume biomass. These crucial for assessing sustainability, however, some currently Canada do not adequately account climate other environmental variables, which limits their effectiveness under a changing climate. Climate-sensitive growth (CSGYMs) therefore urgently needed support decisions. The Canadian Forest Service (CFS) has developed strategic plan advance climate-sensitive modeling through collaboration with provincial territorial agencies, well partners. primary objective of this is provide national-level modelling approach predicting managing growth, mortality, ecosystem services. sensitive initiative emphasizes collaboration, open data, open-source code principles ensure widespread accessibility uptake models, thus contributing the sustainable resources. This technical review reports on status applied each province territory, assesses level sensitivity associated these synthesizes relevant approaches input data required implement into suggests possible pathways achieving CSGYM at national scale. Widespread will be key advancing development CSGYMs.

Language: Английский

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Wildfire‐induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Abstract Observations of the annual cycle atmospheric CO 2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase terrestrial metabolism Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could magnitude phase net ecosystem exchange through shifts plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape‐level patterns photosynthesis across western North America. We use Alaska Canadian large databases to identify perimeters wildfires, Landsat‐derived land cover time series characterize functional types (PFTs), solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) proxy photosynthesis. analyze datasets post‐fire succession photosynthetic activity using space‐for‐time approach. find increases herbaceous sparse vegetation, shrub, deciduous broadleaf PFTs during mid‐succession yield enhancements SIF by 8–40% June July 2‐ 59‐year stands relative pre‐fire controls. From analysis within individual ecoregions modeling, two which fires contribute long‐term trends SIF. First, burning shifting stand age distribution, leading abundance shrubs forests have considerably higher early‐ mid‐summer. Second, appears facilitate shift evergreen conifer Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest increasing can substantially positive seasonal without close coupling carbon storage.

Language: Английский

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Climate change may increase Quebec boreal forest productivity in high latitudes by shifting its current composition

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Feb. 10, 2023

Several recent studies point out that climate change is expected to influence boreal forest succession, disturbances, productivity, and mortality. However, the effect of on those processes their interactions poorly understood. We used an ecophysiological-based mechanistic landscape model study predict future productivity composition under scenarios (RCP) for 300 years (2010–2310). The effects wildfires composition, biomass carbon sequestration storage, mortality were assessed in three management units Quebec forest, distributed along a longitudinal gradient from west east: North-of-Quebec (MU1), Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean (MU2), Côte-Nord region (MU3). Coniferous variation was explained by competitive exclusion wildfires, which are related change. In studied MU, we found decrease coniferous pure occupancy at scale increase mixed deciduous forests MU1 MU2, coniferous, mainly black spruce balsam fir MU3. On other hand, extreme (RCP4.5 RCP8.5), absence broadleaves dispersal, open woodland could more than 8, 22, 10% MU1, MU3 respectively. Also, might overall stock two times RCP2.6 RCP4.5 compared baseline this may be extension growing season reduction potential cold-temperature injuries. Generally, western regions sensitive changes eastern (MU3), fact RCP8.5 will decreasing long-term current climate. This provides good starting support research multiple factors affecting C budget global

Language: Английский

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Adaptation of Tree Species in the Greater Khingan Range under Climate Change: Ecological Strategy Differences between Larix gmelinii and Quercus mongolica

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 283 - 283

Published: Feb. 2, 2024

Global warming significantly affects forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere’s mid-to-high latitudes, altering tree growth, productivity, and spatial distribution. Additionally, temporal heterogeneity exists responses of different species to climate change. This research focuses on two key China’s Greater Khingan Range: Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen. (Pinaceae) Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb. (Fagaceae). We utilized a Maxent model optimized by kuenm R package predict species’ potential habitats under various future scenarios (2050s 2070s) considering three distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5. analyzed 313 distribution records 15 environmental variables employed geospatial analysis assess habitat requirements migration strategies. The demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with Area Under Curve (AUC) values 0.921 for 0.985 gmelinii. accuracy was achieved adjusting regularization multipliers feature combinations. Key factors influencing included mean temperature coldest season (BIO11), warmest (BIO10), precipitation driest quarter (BIO17). Conversely, mongolica’s suitability largely affected annual (BIO1), elevation, (BIO12). These results indicate divergent adaptive habitable area generally increased all scenarios, especially SSP5-8.5, whereas experienced more complex changes. Both centroids are expected shift northwestward. Our study provides insights into coniferous broadleaf Range change, contributing scientific information vital conserving managing area’s ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Future soil organic carbon stocks in China under climate change

Cell Reports Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 1(9), P. 100179 - 100179

Published: Aug. 28, 2024

Language: Английский

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