Implications of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Spatial–Temporal Variability on Flood Hazard Assessments in the Caribbean Lesser Antilles DOI Creative Commons
Catherine Nabukulu,

Victor Jetten,

J. Ettema

et al.

GeoHazards, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(4), P. 1275 - 1293

Published: Nov. 29, 2024

Tropical cyclones (TCs) significantly impact the Caribbean Lesser Antilles, often causing severe wind and water damage. Traditional flood hazard assessments simplify TC rainfall as single-peak, short-duration events tied to specific return periods, overlooking spatial–temporal variability in that TCs introduce. To address this limitation, a new user-friendly tool incorporates into TC-related assessments. The utilizes satellite precipitation data break down TC-associated distinct pathways/scenarios, mapping them ground locations linking sections of storm’s footprint. This approach demonstrates how different areas can be affected differently by same TC. In study, we apply evaluate patterns hazards St. George’s, Grenada, during Hurricane Beryl 2024. scenario representing 75th quantile Spatial Region 2 (S2-Q0.75) closely matched actual observed study area. By generating multiple maps based on various scenarios, provides decision-makers with valuable insights multifaced risks posed single Ultimately, island communities enhance their early warning mitigation strategies for impacts.

Language: Английский

A global map of species at risk of extinction due to natural hazards DOI Creative Commons
Fernando Gonçalves, Harith Farooq,

Mike Harfoot

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(26)

Published: June 17, 2024

An often-overlooked question of the biodiversity crisis is how natural hazards contribute to species extinction risk. To address this issue, we explored four hazards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, overlapped with distribution ranges amphibians, birds, mammals, reptiles that have either narrow distributions or populations few mature individuals. assess which are at risk from these combined frequency magnitude each hazard estimate their impact. We considered if they regions where any historically occurred (n = 3,722). Those least a quarter range subjected high relative impact were 2,001) due hazards. In total, 834 reptiles, 617 302 248 mammals mainly distributed on islands in tropics. Hurricanes 983) earthquakes 868) affected most species, while tsunamis 272), volcanoes 171) considerably fewer. The region highest number was Pacific Ring Fire, especially hurricane-related high-risk concentrated Caribbean Sea, Gulf Mexico, northwestern Ocean. Our study provides important information regarding can help guide conservation attention efforts safeguard survival.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics DOI
Thomas Ibanez, D.E. Bauman, Shin‐ichiro Aiba

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(5)

Published: May 1, 2024

Each year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. The proportion the most intense has increased over past four decades is predicted to continue do so. Yet, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure tree characteristics can mediate damage caused by increasing wind speed. Here, we compiled empirical data on 11 occurring 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing regions worldwide, encompassing field for 22,176 trees 815 species. We reconstructed structure those estimate maximum sustained speed (MSW) direction at studied plots. Then, used a causal inference framework combined with Bayesian generalised linear mixed models understand quantify effects MSW, (EXP), size (DBH) species wood density (ρ) damaged community level, probability snapping or uprooting level. level and, hence, EXP accentuating damaging cyclones, in particular higher speeds. Higher ρ decreased lesser extent uprooting. Larger tended have lower probabilities but Importantly, effect decreasing was more marked smaller than larger further accentuated MSW. Our work emphasises local topography, together cyclone forests, facilitating better predictions impacts such disturbances increasingly windier world.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes DOI Creative Commons
Daniel M. Gilford, Joseph Giguere, Andrew J. Pershing

et al.

Environmental Research Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(4), P. 045019 - 045019

Published: Nov. 20, 2024

Abstract Understanding how rising global air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) influence tropical cyclone intensities is crucial for assessing current future storm risks. Using observations, climate models, potential intensity theory, this study introduces a novel rapid attribution framework that quantifies the impact of historically-warming North Atlantic SSTs on observed hurricane maximum wind speeds. The employs storyline approach exploring comprehensive set counterfactuals scenarios—estimates characterizing historical SST shifts due to human-caused change—and considering atmospheric variability. These counterfactual scenarios affect quantification significance attributable changes in actual since pre-industrial. A summary influences hurricanes during five recent seasons (2019–2023) case Hurricane Ian (2022) reveal human-driven have already driven robust 84% intensities. Hurricanes 2019–2023 were 8.3 m s −1 faster, average, than they would been world without change. framework’s design application, highlight support communication.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Projecting global and regional changes in tropical cyclones and their potential impacts DOI
Julio T. Bacmeister, Karthik Balaguru, Susan C. Bates

et al.

Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 223 - 253

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Overview of tropical cyclones and historical perspective DOI
Wenchang Yang, Emma Levin, Sofia Menemenlis

et al.

Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 1 - 25

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Nighttime lights reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity and inequality in post-hurricane recovery DOI Creative Commons
Qiming Zheng, Yiwen Zeng, Yuyu Zhou

et al.

Remote Sensing of Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 319, P. 114645 - 114645

Published: Feb. 12, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Multiple Signs of the Advancing Environmental/Climate Health Crisis DOI
Merrill Singer

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Hurricanes threaten species and alter evolutionary trajectories on tropical islands DOI
Bo Dalsgaard, Ethan J. Temeles

Current Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 34(22), P. R1115 - R1120

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Climate change and Vibrio vulnificus dynamics: A blueprint for infectious diseases DOI Creative Commons

Jane M. Jayakumar,

Jaime Martínez-Urtaza, Kyle D. Brumfield

et al.

PLoS Pathogens, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 20(12), P. e1012767 - e1012767

Published: Dec. 16, 2024

Climate change is having increasingly profound effects on human health, notably those associated with the occurrence, distribution, and transmission of infectious diseases. The number disparate ecological parameters pathogens affected by climate are vast expansive. Disentangling complex relationship between these variables critical for development effective countermeasures against its effects. pathogen Vibrio vulnificus , a naturally occurring aquatic bacterium that causes fulminant septicemia, represents quintessential climate-sensitive organism. In this review, we use V . as model organism to elucidate intricate network interactions climatic factors pathogens, objective identifying common patterns which affecting their disease burden. Recent findings indicate in regions native or related climate-driven natural disasters chief contributors outbreaks. Concurrently, increasing environmental suitability areas non-endemic diseases, promoting surge populations dynamics, thus elevating risk new We highlight potential drivers aggravating threat under both scenarios propose measures mitigating impact. By defining mechanisms influences burden, aim shed light dynamics disease-causing agents, thereby laying groundwork early warning systems broadly applicable control measures.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate DOI Creative Commons
Serena Lipari, Karthik Balaguru, Julian Rice

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: Dec. 9, 2024

The vulnerability of US offshore wind energy to tropical cyclones is a pressing concern, particularly along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, key areas for development. Assessing impact projected climate change on cyclones, consequently resources, thus critical effective risk management. Herein, we investigate evolving turbines posed by in non-stationary using synthetic cyclone model. Integrated with model simulations, projections show widespread increases exposure, historical 20-year storms occurring every ~12.7 years average, increasing intensity about 9.3 ms−1. Subsequent fragility analysis reveals that probabilities turbine yielding buckling from could increase 37% 13%, respectively, regional reaching up 51%. These findings carry substantial implications operation future expansion farms. Climate rising 13% resulting storm, according analysis.

Language: Английский

Citations

2