Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 1117 - 1135

Published: Aug. 19, 2024

Abstract. Tipping points characterize the situation when a system experiences abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes in response to only gradual change environmental conditions. Given that such events are most cases undesirable, numerous approaches have been proposed identify if is approaching tipping point. Such termed early warning signals represent set of methods for identifying statistical underlying behaviour across time or space would be indicative an Although idea warnings class not new, last 2 decades, topic has generated enormous amount interest, mainly theoretical. At same time, unprecedented data originating from remote sensing systems, field measurements, surveys, simulated data, coupled with innovative models cutting-edge computing, made possible development multitude tools detecting variety scientific fields. However, we miss complete picture where, how, which used so far real-world case studies. Here review literature 20 years show how use these indicators spread ecology climate many other disciplines. We document what metrics used; their success; field, system, involved. find that, despite acknowledged limitations challenges, majority studies reviewed, performance was positive points. Overall, generality employed – fact can theory observed dynamical systems explains continuous diversification application domains.

Language: Английский

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Scaling up our understanding of tipping points

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 377(1857)

Published: June 27, 2022

Anthropogenic activities are increasingly affecting ecosystems across the globe. Meanwhile, empirical and theoretical evidence suggest that natural systems can exhibit abrupt collapses in response to incremental increases stressors, sometimes with dramatic ecological economic consequences. These catastrophic shifts faster larger than expected from changes stressors happen once a tipping point is crossed. The primary mechanisms drive ecosystem responses perturbations lie their architecture of relationships, i.e. how species interact each other physical environment spatial structure environment. Nonetheless, existing work on has so far largely focused relatively simple have either few and/or no structure. This laid critical foundation for understanding possible, but it remains difficult predict (let alone manage) where or when they most likely occur more complex real-world settings. Here, we discuss scaling up our investigations complex—species rich spatially structured—systems could contribute expanding nature works improve ability anticipate effects global change systems. article part theme issue ‘Ecological complexity biosphere: next 30 years’.

Language: Английский

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Integrating ecological feedbacks across scales and levels of organization

Ecography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 30, 2024

In ecosystems, species interact in various ways with other species, and their local environment. addition, ecosystems are coupled space by diverse types of flows. From these links connecting different ecological entities can emerge circular pathways indirect effects: feedback loops. This contributes to creating a nested set feedbacks operating at organizational levels as well spatial temporal scales systems: organisms modifying being affected abiotic environment, demographic behavioral within populations communities, occurring the landscape scale. Here, we review how vary time, discuss emergent properties they generate such coexistence or heterogeneity stability systems. With aim identifying similarities across scales, identify biotic modulators that change sign strength loops show time. Our shows despite acting emerging from processes, similar macroscopic systems organization. Ultimately, our contribution emphasizes need integrate improve understanding joint effects on dynamics, patterns,

Language: Английский

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Landscape structure as a driver of eco-evolution in host–parasite systems

Evolution Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 1, 2025

Abstract Spatial network structure of biological systems drives ecology and evolution by distributing organisms their genes. The ubiquitous host–parasite are no exception. However, past theoretical work has largely focused on simple spatial structures, such as grids, hampering the translation predictions to real ecosystems. Thus, we develop an eco-evolutionary metapopulation model dynamics where hosts parasites disperse through realistically complex networks representing major biomes using river-like terrestrial-like networks. We generate testable prediction that parasite virulence, or how harm hosts, peaks at intermediate dispersal values in while it increases with increasing systems. In systems, virulence also reaches higher overall values. Moreover, show kin selection is main driver evolution. characteristic patterns relatedness which drive differential Finally, accounting for allows us predict distribution key epidemiological variables (e.g., extinction risks) within Our study highlights feedbacks can be understood light linking topology classical evolutionary mechanisms selection.

Language: Английский

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Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Published: Aug. 7, 2023

Abstract. Tipping points characterize the situation when a system experiences abrupt, rapid and sometimes irreversible changes. Given that such changes are in most cases undesirable, numerous approaches have been proposed to identify if is close tipping point. Such termed early-warning signals represent set of methods for identifying statistical underlying behavior across time or space would be indicative an approaching Although idea early-warnings class not new, last two decades, topic generated enormous amount interest, mainly theoretical. At same time, unprecedented data originating from remote sensing systems, field measurements, surveys simulated data, coupled with innovative models cutting-edge computing, has made possible development multitude tools detecting variety scientific fields. Yet, we miss complete picture where, how, which used so far real-world case studies. Here review literature 20 years show how use these indicators spread ecology climate many other disciplines. We document what metrics used, their success as well field, point involved. find that, despite acknowledged limitations challenges, majority case-studies reviewed performance was positive points. Overall, generality employed – fact can theory observed on any dynamical explains continuous diversification application domains.

Language: Английский

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Understanding pesticide-induced tipping in plant-pollinator networks across geographical scales: Prioritizing richness and modularity over nestedness

Physical review. E, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 111(1)

Published: Jan. 7, 2025

Mutually beneficial interactions between plants and pollinators are crucial for biodiversity, ecosystem stability, crop production. A threat to a mutualistic network is the occurrence of tipping point at which species abundances collapse near zero level. In modern agriculture, there widespread use pesticides. What effects extensive pesticide on networks? We develop plant-pollinator-pesticide model study its dynamics using 123 networks across globe. demonstrate that exposure can lead point. Furthermore, while characteristics such as richness modularity exhibit strong association with pesticide-induced tipping, nestedness shows weak association. surprising finding in African continent less tolerant than those Europe. articulate test pragmatic intervention strategy through targeted management levels within specific plant delay or avert Our provides quantitative insights into phenomenon safeguarding fundamental agriculture ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Effect of dispersal-induced death in predator–prey metapopulation system with bistable local dynamics

Physica D Nonlinear Phenomena, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 134597 - 134597

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Landscape structure drives eco-evolution in host-parasite systems

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Oct. 27, 2023

Abstract Spatial network structure of biological systems drives ecology and evolution by distributing organisms their genes. The ubiquitous host-parasite are no exception. However, past work has largely ignored relevant spatial complexity, hampering the translation theoretical predictions to real ecosystems. Thus, we develop an eco-evolutionary metapopulation model dynamics where hosts parasites disperse through realistically complex networks representing major biomes: riverine aquatic terrestrial. We generate testable prediction that parasite virulence, or how harm hosts, is unimodal with dispersal can reach greater values in landscapes but saturates lower terrestrial systems. Moreover, show kin selection virulence evolution. characteristic patterns relatedness which drive differential Finally, accounting for allows us predict distribution key epidemiological variables (e.g., extinction risks) within networks.

Language: Английский

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Co-evolution of host dispersal and parasite virulence in complex landscapes.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Oct. 31, 2024

Abstract Spatial network structure impacts the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of species interactions. Previous work on host-parasite systems has shown that parasite virulence is driven by dispersal rates spatial structure, assuming an ecologically fixed parameter. However, also a trait under selection can evolve. In this context, we develop individual-based eco-evolutionary model, in which both host evolve representative terrestrial (random-geometric graphs; RGGs) riverine aquatic (optimal channel networks; OCNs) landscapes. We find landscapes, evolutionarily stable (ES) are lower ES greater relative to landscapes when mortality low. When high, values landscape types. Diverging co-evolutionary patterns between explained differences topology. Specifically, highly heterogeneous degree distribution 1) leads low relatedness allowing for evolution 2) heterogeneity densities constrains values. Our highlights importance considering concurrent co-evolution studying complex

Language: Английский

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Integrating ecological feedbacks across scales and levels of organization

Published: Oct. 20, 2023

In ecosystems, species interact in various ways with other species, and their local environment. addition, ecosystems are coupled space by diverse types of flows. From these links connecting different ecological entities can emerge circular pathways indirect effects: feedback loops. This contributes to creating a nested set feedbacks operating at organizational levels as well spatial temporal scales systems: modifying being affected abiotic environment, demographic behavioral within populations communities, occurring the landscape scale. Here, we review how vary time, discuss emergent properties they generate such coexistence or heterogeneity stability systems. With aim identifying similarities across scales, identify biotic modulators that change sign strength loops show time. Our shows despite acting emerging from processes, similar macroscopic systems organization. Ultimately, our contribution emphasizes need integrate improve understanding joint effects on dynamics, patterns,

Language: Английский

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