Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 380(1917)

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to become a major driver of biodiversity loss, destabilizing the ecosystems on which human society depends. As planet rapidly warms, disruption ecological interactions among populations, species and their environment, will likely drive positive feedback loops, accelerating pace magnitude losses. We propose that, even without invoking such amplifying feedback, loss should increase nonlinearly with warming because non-uniform distribution biodiversity. Whether these non-uniformities are uneven populations across species’ thermal niche, or niche limits within an community, we show that in both cases, resulting clustering population tolerances drives nonlinear increases risk discuss how fundamental constraints physiologies geographical distributions give rise clustered tolerances, responses changing climates could variously temper, delay intensify dynamics. argue risks be null expectation under warming, highlight empirical research needed understand causes, commonness consequences better predict where, when why losses occur. This article part discussion meeting issue ‘Bending curve towards nature recovery: building Georgina Mace’s legacy for biodiverse future’.

Language: Английский

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A taxonomy of multiple stable states in complex ecological communities

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 27(4)

Published: April 1, 2024

Abstract Natural systems are built from multiple interconnected units, making their dynamics, functioning and fragility notoriously hard to predict. A scenario of particular relevance concerns so‐called regime shifts: abrupt transitions healthy degraded ecosystem states. An explanation for these shifts is that they arise as between alternative stable states, a process well‐understood in few‐species models. However, how multistability upscales with system complexity remains debated question. Here, we identify four different regimes generically emerge models species‐rich communities other archetypical complex biological assuming random interactions. Across the studied models, each consistently emerges under specific interaction scheme leaves distinct set fingerprints terms number observed species richness response perturbations. Our results help clarify conditions types can be expected occur ecological communities.

Language: Английский

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Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 377(1857)

Published: June 27, 2022

Global warming, habitat loss and overexploitation of limited resources are leading to alarming biodiversity declines. Ecosystems complex adaptive systems that display multiple alternative states can shift from one another in abrupt ways. Some these tipping points have been identified predicted by mathematical computational models. Moreover, scales involved potential mitigation or intervention scenarios tied particular levels complexity, cells human–environment coupled systems. In dealing with a biosphere where humans part complex, endangered ecological network, novel theoretical engineering approaches need be considered. At the centre most research efforts is biodiversity, which essential maintain community resilience ecosystem services. What done mitigate, counterbalance prevent points? Using 30-year window, we explore recent sense, preserve restore as well number proposed interventions (from afforestation bioengineering) directed mitigate reverse collapse. The year 2050 taken representative future horizon combines time scale deep changes will occur solutions might effective. This article theme issue ‘Ecological complexity biosphere: next 30 years’.

Language: Английский

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Reactivity of complex communities can be more important than stability

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Nov. 8, 2023

Abstract Understanding stability—whether a community will eventually return to its original state after perturbation—is major focus in the study of various complex systems, particularly ecosystems. Here, we challenge this focus, showing that short-term dynamics can be better predictor outcomes for Using random matrix theory, how ecosystems behave immediately small perturbations. Our analyses show many communities are expected ‘reactive’, whereby some perturbations amplified initially and generate response is directly opposite predicted by typical stability measures. In particular, find reactivity prevalent mixed interactions structured communities, which both common nature. Finally, extinction risk than stability, when face frequent perturbations, as increasingly common. results suggest that, alongside fundamental measure assessing ecosystem health.

Language: Английский

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Thresholds and tipping points are tempting but not necessarily suitable concepts to address anthropogenic biodiversity change—an intervention

Marine Biodiversity, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 53(3)

Published: June 1, 2023

Abstract Thresholds and tipping points are frequently used concepts to address the risks of global change pressures their mitigation. It is tempting also consider them understand biodiversity design measures ensure biotic integrity. Here, we argue that thresholds do not work well in context for conceptual, ethical, empirical reasons. Defining a threshold (a maximum tolerable degree turnover or loss) neglects ecosystem multifunctionality often relies on complete entangled web species interactions invokes ethical issue declaring some dispensable. Alternatively defining might seem more straightforward as it addresses causes change. However, most appears be gradual accumulating over time rather than reflecting disproportionate when transgressing pressure threshold. Moreover, synchrony with environmental change, but massively delayed through inertia inflicted by population dynamics demography. In consequence, formulating management targets preventing transgression less useful such neither capture how responds anthropogenic nor links functioning. Instead, addressing requires spatiotemporal complexity altered local community temporal composition leading shifts distributional ranges interactions.

Language: Английский

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Early warning signals of grassland ecosystem degradation: A case study from the northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

CATENA, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 239, P. 107970 - 107970

Published: March 13, 2024

Language: Английский

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Landscape Structure Affects Metapopulation-Scale Tipping Points

The American Naturalist, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 202(1), P. E17 - E30

Published: Feb. 7, 2023

AbstractEven when environments deteriorate gradually, ecosystems may shift abruptly from one state to another. Such catastrophic shifts are difficult predict and sometimes reverse (so-called hysteresis). While well studied in simplified contexts, we lack a general understanding of how spread realistically spatially structured landscapes. For different types landscape structures, including typical terrestrial modular riverine dendritic networks, here investigate landscape-scale stability metapopulations whose patches can locally exhibit shifts. We find that such usually large-scale hysteresis the properties these depend strongly on metapopulation spatial structure population dispersal rate: an intermediate rate, low average degree, or largely reduce size. Our study suggests restoration is easier with clustered efforts populations characterized by rate.

Language: Английский

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Anticipating regime shifts by mixing early warning signals from different nodes

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Feb. 5, 2024

Abstract Real systems showing regime shifts, such as ecosystems, are often composed of many dynamical elements interacting on a network. Various early warning signals have been proposed for anticipating shifts from observed data. However, it is unclear how one should combine different nodes better performance. Based theory stochastic differential equations, we propose method to optimize the node set which construct an signal. The takes into account that uncertainty well magnitude signal affects its predictive performance, large or small in situation does not imply signal’s high and combining but always beneficial. performs particularly when subjected amounts noise stress.

Language: Английский

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Emergence of food webs with a multi-trophic hierarchical structure driven by nonlinear trait-matching

Journal of Theoretical Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 112091 - 112091

Published: March 1, 2025

Food webs are a central subject in community ecology, because consumption supports the flow of matter through system, which is at base many its functions. Identifying mechanisms that origin food web structure useful, e.g., for restoration purposes. We investigated extent to trait-matching, contributes defining strength trophic interactions, can cause emergence with non-trivial, multi-trophic, hierarchical structure. compared purpose structural properties simulated by four model variants, depending whether trait-matching was linear or nonlinear and population dynamics evolution were accounted (dynamical model) not (static model). Nonlinear restrict interactions phenotypic space so as obtain localized (i.e., each species interact small subset species), key element formation. In static case, allowed webs, relatively low connectance random graphs. dynamical combined formation groups phenotypically close species, resulting

Language: Английский

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Bridging structural and functional hydrological connectivity in dryland ecosystems

CATENA, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 231, P. 107322 - 107322

Published: July 6, 2023

On dryland hillslopes, vegetation water availability is often subsidized by the redistribution of rainfall runoff from bare soil (sources) to patches (sinks). In regions where volumes are too low support spatially continuous plant growth, such functional connectivity between and vegetated areas enables establishment persistence ecosystems. Increasing within can intensify increase losses disrupting this reducing available sustain ecosystem function. Inferring (from vegetated, or areas) structural landscape features an attractive approach enable rapid, scalable characterization function remote observations. Such inference, however, would rely on metrics connectivity, which describe contiguity areas. Several studies have observed non-stationarity in relations as conditions vary. Consequently, suitability using provide a reliable proxy for remains uncertain motivates work here. Relations established based model simulations rainfall-runoff hillslopes with varying properties patterns. These vary two hydrologic limits – 'local' (patch-scale) limit, related 'global' (hillslope-scale) most hillslope fraction regardless The transition these depends intensity duration, permeability. While local limit may strengthen positive feedbacks availability, implications functioning need further exploration, particularly considering timescale separation storm production growth.

Language: Английский

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