Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 210, P. 103348 - 103348

Published: Sept. 6, 2020

Language: Английский

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Revisiting the recent European droughts from a long-term perspective

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: June 18, 2018

Early 21st-century droughts in Europe have been broadly regarded as exceptionally severe, substantially affecting a wide range of socio-economic sectors. These extreme events were linked mainly to increases temperature and record-breaking heatwaves that influencing since 2000, combination with lack precipitation during the summer months. Drought propagated through all respective compartments hydrological cycle, involving low runoff prolonged soil moisture deficits. What if these recent are not previously thought? Using reconstructed over last 250 years, we show although 2003 2015 may be most driven by deficits vegetation period, their spatial extent severity at long-term European scale less uncommon. This conclusion is evident our concurrent investigation three major drought types - meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture) (grid-scale runoff) droughts. Additionally, unprecedented drying trends for corresponding frequency also observed, reflecting recurring periods high temperatures. Since intense extended reemerge future, study highlights concerns regarding impacts such when combined persistent decrease moisture.

Language: Английский

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Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(6), P. 485 - 491

Published: May 10, 2021

Language: Английский

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The rise of compound warm-season droughts in Europe

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 7(6)

Published: Feb. 3, 2021

In the last decades, impactful European warm-season droughts have been steadily increasing, substituting other drought types.

Language: Английский

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Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 25(2), P. 787 - 810

Published: Feb. 19, 2021

Abstract. Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change impact systems globally and, thus, the availability this vital resource. Groundwater recharge important indicator availability, but it flux that difficult to estimate uncertainties balance accumulate, leading possibly large errors particular dry regions. This study investigates projections using multi-model ensemble eight global hydrological models (GHMs) are driven by bias-adjusted output four circulation (GCMs). Pre-industrial current values compared different warming (GW) levels result three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest projected changes strongly vary among GHM–GCM combinations, statistically significant only computed few regions world. Statistically GWR increases northern Europe some parts Arctic, East Africa, India. decreases simulated southern Chile, Brazil, central USA, Mediterranean, southeastern China. In regions, reversals trends can be observed warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate atmospheric CO2 vegetation evapotranspiration, we investigate estimated affected inclusion these processes. leads differences up 100 mm per year. Most active less severe than without even instead simulated. However, where GCMs predict precipitation important, model agreement lowest. Overall, outcomes additional research simulating processes necessary.

Language: Английский

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G‐RUN ENSEMBLE: A Multi‐Forcing Observation‐Based Global Runoff Reanalysis

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 57(5)

Published: April 29, 2021

Abstract River discharge is an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) and one of the best monitored components terrestrial water cycle. Nonetheless, gauging stations are distributed unevenly around world, leaving many white spaces on global freshwater resources maps. Here, we use a machine learning algorithm historical weather data to upscale sparse in situ river measurements. We provide reanalysis monthly runoff rates for periods covering decades past century at resolution 0.5° (about 55 km), with up 525 ensemble members based 21 different atmospheric forcing sets. This reconstruction, named Global RUNoff ENSEMBLE (G‐RUN ENSEMBLE), evaluated using independent observations from large basins benchmarked against other publicly available sets over period 1981–2010. The accuracy set observed flow not used model calibration found compare favorably state‐of‐the‐art hydrological simulations. G‐RUN estimates mean volume range between 3.2 × 10 4 3.8 km 3 yr −1 . ( https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12794075 ) has wide applications, including regional assessments, climate change attribution studies, hydro‐climatic process studies as well evaluation, refinement models.

Language: Английский

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Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 175 - 312

Published: May 24, 2022

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Language: Английский

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Mediterranean Region

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 2233 - 2272

Published: June 22, 2023

A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to content, full PDF via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Language: Английский

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Large increases of multi-year droughts in north-western Europe in a warmer climate

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(5-6), P. 1781 - 1800

Published: July 20, 2022

Abstract Three consecutive dry summers in western Europe (2018–2019–2020) had widespread negative impacts on society and ecosystems, started societal debate (changing) drought vulnerability adaptation measures. We investigate the occurrence of multi-year droughts Rhine basin, with a focus event probability present future warmer climates. Additionally, we temporally compounding physical drivers events. A combination multiple reanalysis datasets multi-model large ensemble climate model simulations was used to provide robust analysis statistics processes these rare identify two types events (consecutive meteorological summer long-duration hydrological droughts), show that occur average about twice 30 year period climate, though natural variability is (zero five can single period). Projected decreases precipitation increases atmospheric evaporative demand, lead doubling at 1 $$^\circ$$ ∘ C additional global warming relative present-day an increase length Consecutive are forced by two, seemingly independent, lower than normal higher demand. The soil moisture response this compound forcing has clear imprint, resulting relatively larger reduction content second drought, potentially more severe impacts. Long-duration start followed lingering meteorologically conditions. This limits slows down recovery content, leading long-lasting initial exploration provides avenues for further investigation hazard region, which advised given projected trends ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses

Water Resources Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(6-7), P. 2307 - 2323

Published: Feb. 2, 2023

Abstract The Mediterranean basin is particularly prone to climate change and vulnerable its impacts. One of the most relevant consequences change, especially for southern regions, certainly water scarcity as result a reduction surface runoff groundwater levels. Despite progress achieved in recent years field impact on resources, results outcomes should be treated with due caution since any future projection derived implications are inevitably affected by certain degree uncertainty arising from each different stage entire modeling chain. This work offers comprehensive overview works basin, mainly focusing last ten research. Past trends components hydrological balance discussed companion paper (Noto et al. 2022), while present focuses problem availability scarcity. In addition, aims discuss sources related aim gain awareness studies interpretation reliability.

Language: Английский

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